Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have been unable to cash in on their reputation as one of the most talent-laden teams in baseball since their world championship successes in the early 90's. Despite being loaded with toolsy players, they've managed barely a .500 record (487-485) over the last 6 years. Their biggest problem has been quality depth in the line-up and pitching staff. While they've had a number of superstar pitchers and hitters, the rest of their roster has been populated with too many unproductive players. This year, new GM J.P. Riccardi made a number of moves this offseason in an effort to change that
Hitting
The Blue Jays newest acquisition was 3B Eric Hinske. Toronto is Hinske's 3rd stop in a little more than a year, twice being traded for closer-type relievers. He's a patient hitter with decent power and good enough baserunning instincts to steal 14 or more bases every year he's been a professional.
To make room for Hinske at third, the Jays traded both their starting shortstop from last year and his backup and moved last year's third baseman Felipe Lopez to short. The 22-year old Lopez has always been one of the youngest players at every level coming though the minors, so there was some concern that he was being rushed through the system. However, those fears were allayed with a strong showing in his brief call-up last year. Many project Lopez to be a 20 HR/20 SB talent as soon as this year and a strong candidate to join the AL's other elite shortstops.
The outfield of the Jays is the most athletic in baseball. Jose Cruz, Jr, Shannon Stewart and Raul Mondesi are each blessed with power and speed. Both Cruz and Mondesi have hit 30 homers and stolen 30 bases in a season. Stewart has hit as many as 20 homers and stolen as many as 50 bases. Added to that mix this year will be perennial uber-prospect Vernon Wells, who possesses similar talents.
1B/DH Carlos Delgado is a perennial MVP candidate. Last year was a down year for him. He became too pull conscious, trying to hit more homers in order to justify his newly signed $17 million per year contract. The result was that he hit fewer doubles - down 15 from his previous 4 year average - and ironically enough, fewer homers. This should be a rebound year for him.
Behind the plate, veteran Darrin Fletcher will don the tools of ignorance until one of 2 fine prospects is ready to take over. Jayson Werth, stolen from the Orioles last year in trade, is a strong defensive player with promising offensive skills. Josh Phelps is passable defensively, but an awesome hitter. Once they're ready, Werth will probably end up getting the majority of the catching duties with Phelps serving as full-time DH and spelling him behind the plate.
Homer Bush will man second base until another toolsy prospect, Orlando Hudson, is ready. However, Hudson will bring something to this team that they really need: on base percentage.
As talented as this team is, they are probably too aggressive at the plate, getting themselves out needlessly on pitches they can't do anything with. With all the talent this team has, a few more baserunners could make this a 1000-run offense. The eventual additions of Hudson, Werth and Phelps will help greatly in that respect. Once they arrive, the Jays will have a line-up of 9 quality hitters.
Rating: 60 (but the talent to be 75)
Pitching
While most contenders have one or two starters they consider an "ace", the Jays haven't really had one. Their rotation has been populated with a number of guys who are either middle or bottom of the rotation talents. However, that may be changing this year with the development of Roy Halladay. Long touted as an ace in the making, Halladay had never come close to that billing. After being sent down yet again last spring in order to figure things out, he finally did. After he returned in July, his ERA was 2.71, striking out 95 in 103+ innings. More impressively, he allowed more than 3 earned runs just twice in his 16 starts and only 3 home runs all year.
Cris Carpenter had somewhat of a breakthrough season last year as well. Finally recovered from 1999 elbow surgery, he posted the strongest numbers yet of his young career. Except for a string of starts in late July/early August where he struggled to find the plate - 29 earned runs and 21 walks in just 30 innings - Carpenter showed he might be a second ace for the Jays. Without that skein, he was 11-6, 3.34 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 140 Ks in 185+ innings.
The Jays acquired another solid starter this offseason, bringing lefty Luke Prokopec from the Dodgers in exchange for shortstop Cesar Izturis. Prokopec started off last season strongly, but blister problems limited his effectiveness as the season wore on. I don't know if it's my perception or not, but it seems like a lot of Dodger pitchers develop problems with blisters. Anyway, if he can somehow conquer that problem, Prokopec will make a fine addition to the middle of the Jay's rotation.
Esteban Loaiza and Brandon Lyon round out the rotation. Loaiza has been an enigma to every organization that's had him. He possesses 4 quality pitches and shows good command of them, but can never maintain any kind of consistency with them. He gets hit way too hard for a guy with his talent, yet there he is. Lyon is practically the opposite. He has one good pitch - a change-up - and gets by almost entirely on guile, poise and determination.
The Jays bullpen looks impressive this year. Kelvim Escobar will move from the rotation back to the closer's spot that he manned when he first made the majors in 1997. He will be set-up by a strong cast, particularly from the left side. Pedro Bourbon, Felix Heredia and Dan Plesac are each highly regarded lefties. Bob File and Brian Bowles offer nice right-handed options.
And unlike previous years, depth doesn't appear to be a problem as the Jays can call on serviceable arms like Mike Sirotka, Scott Eyre, Steve Parris and Justin Miller to start or relieve.
Rating: 60
Defense
The Blue Jays have some solid defensive players, but their ranks are surprisingly thin for a team blessed with this many good athletes. While it's true that their whole outfield is blessed with above average arms, none of them has above average range. The infield is manned by players who can make the plays hit right to them, but none are particularly highlight worthy with their range, with the possible exception of Lopez at short. Once Hudson and Werth make the team, they'll have two above average defenders in the middle of the field.
Rating: 55
Management
Manager Buck Martinez does not try to encourage his players to take walks, but GM JP Riccardi, a former assistant GM for the Oakland A's, will most certainly enlighten him on the relative merits. Martinez, a former big league catcher, is quite good at handling his bullpen and has done an excellent job of keeping the pitch counts in check for his younger pitchers. He also seems to manage the personalities in the clubhouse very well and for the most part, gets his players to play hard every day. Riccardi, a disciple of A's power+on base philosophy, recently hired fantasy advisor and Baseball Prospectus commentator Keith Law as a full-time consultant to Baseball Operations. One can only hope that this move opens new doors of opportunity for more people outside of the current baseball establishment. If nothing else, it shows a GM willing to try new modes of thinking in an effort to make his organization successful.
Rating: 65