St. Louis Cardinals
After last year's strong performance despite limited production from Mark McGwire, it's easy to see why the Cards are trendy favorites to wins the Central division this year. However, last year's success was largely due to performances not likely to be repeated and the rest of the division has shown marked improvement.
Hitting
The big story in St. Louis last season was the emergence of Albert Pujols. Although there were questions about whether he was really ready to handle major league pitching last spring, there was no question that he had loads more talent than anyone that Tony LaRussa and the Cardinals had on hand to play third base. As it turned out, he had more talent than just about any rookie in history, matching Ted Williams feat of becoming the only rookies to ever open their careers with a .400 on base and a .600 slugging percentage in their first season. While there are still questions regarding his real age - he may be as old as 24, rather than his stated 22 - there are no more questions about his ability to be productive.
The Cardinals other highly regarded youngster, JD Drew, got off to a torrid start before a hand injury sidelined him for nearly 2 months. He was on pace to hit 40+ homers, but still managed a respectable 27 in a mere 375 at bats. The injury bug and LaRussa's reluctance to play him against tough lefties have prevented him from ascending into the pantheon of young stars, but talent like his can't be reigned in forever. Barring injury, this is the year JD Drew starts putting his name into the annual MVP discussions.
Fortunately for the Cards, Jim Edmonds heated up after JD Drew went down. After struggling with injuries into July, Edmonds finished the season on a tear, hitting .317 with 17 of his 30 homers after the break. While his power, injuries, defense and high strikeout totals often get noted, Edmonds doesn't get a lot of recognition for having a terrific eye for balls and strikes: he's drawn nearly 200 walks in the last 2 years.
McGwire's two-year battle with injuries finally forced him to retire which left the Cardinals with a huge hole at first base. Enter Tino Martinez. While no one will expect him to match McGwire's rate of production, Martinez might meet or exceed McGwire's total production as he rarely gets injured; he has played at least 154 games in five of the last six seasons.
The Cardinals middle infield tandem of Fernando Vina and Edgar Renteria are both good players who probably get more attention than they deserve. Neither is exceptional at getting on base - Vina, career .356, Renteria, .337 - despite getting the majority of their plate appearances at the top of the line-up. Nor are they considered sluggers for their position. However, both have decent speed and are fundamentally sound at the plate - moving runners, solid bunting skills, etc.
The Cards have a choice this year at catcher: play the guy who can hit or the guy who can defend. For the past couple of years, they've played the guy who can defend, Mike Matheny. However, the guy who can hit, Eli Marrero, may make it too tough for LaRussa to sit him. Of course, he may end up playing Marrero in left field, where the Cards are desperately looking for solutions.
It was thought that Bill Ortega might be able to handle the role, but he's proving more suited to being a 4th outfielder. Kerry Robinson is also a possibility who'd give the offense the added dimension of a speed burner in the line-up. However, he has yet to prove he can get on base consistently. Eduardo Perez and Placido Polanco will also be given at bats there, but both are more suited to utility roles.
The Cards have a formidable heart of the order and a decent supporting cast. This offense won't lead the league in scoring, but it'll be good enough to keep them in playoff contention.
Rating: 60
Pitching
Many have suggested that the depth of the Cardinal starting staff is a strength powerful enough to overwhelm the rest of the division. While it's true that Matt Morris is probably one of the 5 or 6 best starters in the NL, it'd be hard to characterize the rest of the staff as anything but decent.
Daryl Kile pitched well last year in the course of winning 16 games, but his 3.09 ERA was not representative of how often he either pitched himself out of trouble or was rescued by the bullpen: his expected ERA was a little higher than 4.00. He still has the great curveball, but his fastball has lost some life, forcing him to use a cutter more often. He's still a solid #2.
The rest of the rotation is solid, if unspectacular. The best of the rest is Woody Williams, who came over from San Diego mid-season last year. Williams begins this year on the DL with a strained left oblique muscle that could sideline him until late May. What Williams lacks in stuff, he makes up for in tenacity and competitiveness. However, he's still quite vulnerable to the longball, surrendering an average of 31.6 a year over the past 5 years despite pitching in one of the tougher home run parks in the majors.
Garrett Stephenson, Andy Benes and Bud Smith will round out the rotation. Smith has the highest upside of the 3 and may turn out to be a pretty decent pitcher on par with Rick Reed. Stephenson and Benes will require oodles of run support to win more games than they lose. The wild card in this is Rick Ankiel. His well-chronicled battle with wildness has left him a little media shy and an injury to his elbow this spring did nothing to remove him from the limelight. However, after his demotion to the minors last year, he dominated minor league hitters, indicating that it's only a mental block, not a physical one preventing him from returning to the star level he showed in his rookie season. While that is a considerable obstacle, it's not one that can't be overcome. If he can do that, Morris won't be the only dominating pitcher the Cardinals have.
Speaking of Morris, he's still in the top 5 among active leaders in career ERA and, with his combination of mid-90s sinking fastball, hard breaking curve and above average straight change, should emerge as one of the annual leaders in strikeouts.
The bullpen is a veteran group led by newly acquired Jason Isringhausen. He displaces Dave Veres as the closer, but it remains to be seen if he'll be any more effective. Veres will join Mike Timlin and Steve Kline in set-up. Gene Stechshulte, Mike Matthews and Luther Hackman round out the rest of the relief corps. It's a solid crew, but none are exceptional.
Rating: 60
Defense
The Cards will have one of the better defensive teams in baseball. Edmonds, Vina, Renteria and Matheny have all been rated among the best at their positions at one time or another. Drew and Martinez are both well above average. The defense is better with Polanco playing third and Pujols in left, but perhaps at the cost of a better bat in the line-up.
Rating: 65
Management
Walt Jocketty has put together a pretty amazing record of success the past 3 years when it comes to trades and free agent signings. He certainly hasn't hurt the Cards and many people credit the moves he made for their division title in 2000. He's unafraid to pull the trigger on a deal that could help the big club, but is running out of bullets on the farm. And perhaps it is this that will ultimately relegate him to merely above average status as a GM. For example, one of the trades he could eventually regret making was acquiring catcher Carlos Hernandez in exchange for emerging outfield prospect Ben Johnson. Hernandez was a multi-million contract the Cards ended up eating due to Hernandez back troubles and Johnson is becoming a 4-tool stud who may be ready for major league duty in San Diego in a year or two. Still, the Cards' current fortunes are in good hands with Jocketty at the helm.
LaRussa is regarded by many as one of the best managers in the game, but there may be some cracks developing in the armor. His reluctance to play super-talented youngsters in favor of highly-mediocre veterans has probably cost the Cardinals several wins a year the past 3 years. His line-ups at times have been puzzling as well. It's off the subject a little bit, but one of my favorite computer games was Tony LaRussa baseball. The second edition offered the added feature of allowing you to let LaRussa set your line-ups for you, or at least the LaRussa that was programmed. The claim was that the creators of the game had enlisted his help through numerous interviews and meetings to give the game it's authenticity. I was always puzzled with some of the line-up suggestions by the computer LaRussa - extreme use of platooning for instance. After watching him manage the last several years, it's clear to me that the programmers did a very good job of representing his philosophy. All that to say that LaRussa may be the smartest manager in the game, but that might be standing in the way of him being the best.
Rating: 65