San Diego Padres
Only one player remains from the team that went to the World Series in 1998: Trevor Hoffman. Still, it's unlikely that team would have been competitive for more than another season as it was comprised largely of aging vets. The team that GM Kevin Towers is currently building will be competitive for the next decade and beyond.
Hitting
Last year was the first in which the Padre hitters began to embrace the concept of drawing walks. They did so with great gusto, leading the NL by a comfortable margin and consequently finishing 6th in runs scored despite having the 4th worst slugging percentage. This year, they figure to improve on the slugging without much loss on the on base side.
The personnel losses they suffered over the past 8 months might end up being a boon. Sure, they parted with Rickey Henderson and his 80+ walks a season, but losing a corner outfielder with a .351 slugging and negligible defensive value isn't exactly a crushing blow. In his place, the Pads will get a full-season from Ray Lankford. Quick trivia question: who has the higher career OPS, Lankford or Tony Gwynn. The answer may surprise you... it's Lankford - .849 to .847. That's not to take anything away from Gwynn, who's remarkable accomplishments will most certainly land him in the Hall of Fame the first year he's eligible. It's to demonstrate that Lankford's value is grossly underestimated, largely because he strikes out so much. After the trade to San Diego last season, his numbers took a decidedly positive turn, hitting .288 with on base and slugging of .386 and .480 respectively.
Another loss that will likely turn into a positive is the departure of Chris Gomez at short. While he's not a terrible player, he could never stay healthy or consistent enough to generate any offense. Between he and Rule 5 pick-up Donaldo Mendez, the Pads shortstops produced an OPS of .438 before the job was turned over to D'Angelo Jimenez, who was acquired at the trading deadline. Jimenez, who'll be moved to second base this year, produced an OPS of .722 in his first significant exposure to major league pitching. His minor league numbers suggest that he could develop into a player capable of .800+ OPS with decent speed.
Jimenez was moved to second by the aquisition of Seattle hot prospect, Ramon Vazquez. Vazquez is more known for his steady glove, but his good on base skills often get overlooked. He's gotten on base better than 37% of the time in the last 5 years and has developed some pop to go with an occasional stolen base.
The heart of the Padre order is Phil Nevin and Ryan Klesko. Both All-Stars are being moved to new positions accommodate uber-prospect Sean Burroughs. Nevin was a #1 draft pick, but it wasn't until he was traded to the Padres 3 years ago that he has played like it. Over that period, Troy Glaus and Chipper Jones are the only third basemen to hit more homers and drive in more runs than Nevin. Klesko was also regarded as somewhat of an underachiever before he came to the Padres as well. The knock against him was that he couldn't hit lefties, and although he still doesn't crush them with the same verve he smacks around right-handers, his .344 on base versus southpaws the past 2 years is respectable. I suppose when your manager platoons you with Dave Gallagher and Mike Devereaux, as Bobby Cox did in Atlanta, then you might get such a reputation. So why would the Padres move two .900+ OPS hitters so they could get a rookie in the line-up?
Because that rookie is Sean Burroughs. Son of former AL MVP Jeff Burroughs, Sean, who's just 21, will probably surpass his father's career numbers - 240 homers, 882 RBI, 1443 hits - by the time he turns 30, or about halfway through his own career. There's no question Sean will hit for average: his minor league average was .327 and he had more walks than strikeouts. The question is when will his power develop. Probably soon. Even though he missed more than a month of the season last year due to knee surgery, his numbers bear an eerie resemblance to those that Jeff Bagwell and Chipper Jones produced just before their rookie seasons. (prorated to 536 ABs, which is how many player A got in his final minor league season)
AB H 2 3 HR BB SO
player A 536 174 31 12 13 57 70
player B 536 173 38 1 12 50 73
player C 536 178 38 8 5 80 64Player A is Jones. Player C is Bagwell. The biggest difference here is that Jones was a year older than Burroughs is, and Bagwell was 2 years older and playing in AA, as opposed to AAA.
Manning center will be Mark Kotsay. Last year, nagging injuries slowed him all year long, making some wonder if his brilliant college career was just a mirage. However, what was lost in the counting numbers was that he actually begun to fulfill his potential. He posted career highs in on base + slugging, despite battling leg and hand injuries. The talent is here to hit 20 homers, 40 doubles and steal 20 bases.
With the trade of Ben Davis to Seattle, Wiki Gonzales was handed the starting job behind the plate. For that, he returned the Pads confidence in him by showing up to camp out of shape. It may not matter. Just before spring training ended, Towers sent utilityman Damian Jackson to Detroit for catcher Javier Cardona. Cardona has spent the last 2 years misspent as a back-up catcher. In 1999, at AA Jacksonville, he hit .309 with 26 homers and a .384 on base. The next year in AAA looked pretty much the same - .275 with 11 homers in half as many at bats - until the Tigers promoted him to major league back-up. With Gonzales out for the first month or two with a broken bone in his hand, Cardona has a very good chance to show that, like Phil Nevin before him, the Tigers may not know how to handle good talent when they get it. it would not be at all surprising to see Cardona take the starting job permanently.
Bubba Trammell returns as the Pads' 4th outfielder. Not many teams have a guy who hit 25 homers and drove in 90+ runs last year fighting for playing time in the outfield. He'll be joined by Ron Gant as the primary right-handed alternatives in the outfield and off the bench. Veteran Trenidad Hubbard, who is rumored to be able to adequately fill in at every position including team bus driver, will give the Pads additional versatility off the bench. Cesar Crespo and Deivi Cruz will provide infield depth. The presence of Crespo, who came over with Kotsay in trade for Matt Clement, made Damian Jackson's presence largely redundant. Crespo plays second, short and outfield, and has more power and a better eye at the plate than Jackson.
With Cardona in the line-up, the Pads feature a young team that gets on base and every player has double digit home run power. There will probably be an adjustment period to start the season due to all the new faces and position changes. But by the time the All-Star break rolls around, the Pads will be a very tough team for any pitcher to face as they won't have any bad, or even below average hitters to face.
Rating: 65 (potentially 70)
Pitching
A starting staff led by journeymen like Kevin Jarvis and Bobby Jones is not exactly what division titles and championships are built on. But that is what the Pads are trying to do, at least initially. Jarvis and Jones are not bad pitchers. Neither is Brian Tollberg. The Pads are just hoping that these guys can give them enough innings to keep the bullpen fresh and keep them in games long enough so that the offense can do it's thing. If these guys finish with a .500 record, then they've done their job.
On the surface, Brian Lawrence looks like the other guys - right hander who doesn't throw hard - but he's a bit different. It's unfair to compare him to Rick Reed because he is better than Reed. He locates all his pitches very well, but he has a very good slider. A more apt comparison might be to Jon Lieber, although he lacks a couple of mph on his fastball for it to be a perfect comparison. However, the strikeout rate is almost identical at this point in their careers - 6.2 per 9 innings for Lawrence, 5.9 for Lieber.
Brett Tomko also has some potential. As I pointed out in No Respect, he'll have a great opportunity in San Diego to show that he belongs in the rotation.
But what makes the Padres contenders is the guys they have waiting in the wings who most certainly will contribute to this year's effort. The Pads have the best collection of high quality minor league arms in baseball, several of whom will make their major league debut this year. Jake Peavy, Dennis Tankersley, Ben Howard and Eric Cyr will all begin the season in AA, but could be impact pitchers in San Diego the way that Roy Oswalt, Carlos Hernandez and Tim Redding were in Houston last year. Peavy, Tankersley and Howard all have the talent to be dominating starters and are already proving to AA hitters that they need to be at a much higher level: combined they have pitched 25+ innings, allowing 19 hits and 11 walks while striking out 32.
The Pads bullpen is headed up by Trevor Hoffman. Although he doesn't have the zip on his fastball that he once did, he still has that amazing change-up that befuddles hitters no matter how many times he throws it. He's expanded his repertoire to include a slider and a curve to keep hitters from sitting on it.
This year he'll have some veteran help, although the set-up duties will go to a youngster. Jeremy Fikac, who's almost a mirror image of Hoffman on the mound - average fastball, great change-up - will be the primary set-up. Lefty Alan Embree and right-hander Steve Reed will also pitch late-inning short relief. Jason Boyd pitched his way onto the team with a fine spring.
The second half of the season is where the Pads pitching will really show it's strength. In addition to the farm hands who'll be contributing, the Pads should see the return of starter Adam Eaton and hard throwing relievers Tom Davey and Kevin Walker. Despite how they look now, with all the talent about to converge on San Diego, the Pads could become the one NL team no one wants to face come September.
Rating: 50 (potentially 65)
Defense
Last year, the Pads led the NL in errors. That probably won't be the case this year, although at the beginning of the season it may look that way. Once everyone gets settled in, they should have a pretty solid defense. Burroughs is an upgrade at third over Nevin, and he could develop into a Gold Glove fielder. Vazquez and Jimenez have decent range but a re both very sure handed. Nevin is being coached by Wally Joyner, who was one of the best glovemen at first of his generation, and Nevin was at least decent in the field in the first place. Kotsay is a superior defensive centerfielder, with great range, a strong accurate arm, and never makes a bad read on a ball. Lankford is also good, with a strong arm and enough speed to outrun most of his mistakes. Klesko is a good athlete, but is awkward pretty much wherever he plays. He does have good arm strength and usually makes accurate throws. Gonzales, Cardona and Tom Lampkin, are all pretty solid behind the plate. With the exception of Kotsay, no one is a great outfielder. But unlike last year, the Pads don't have any bad fielders either.
Rating: 55
Management
Kevin Towers is becoming known for making brilliant trades. In fact, almost the entire Padre offense is the result of favorable trades:
Kotsay for Matt Clement
Lankford for Woody Williams
Klesko for Reggie Sanders
Trammell for Donne Wall
Nevin for Andy Sheets
Jimenez for Jay Witasik
Vazquez (and Tomko) for Ben Davis
Cardona for Damian JacksonHe also helps his team with the Rule 5 draft and has surrounded himself with great evaluators of talent - Ted Simmons, who along with Towers built the Pirates farm system that produced Jason Kendall and Aramis Ramirez most notably; and Bill Clark, who was a key contributor in the development of Cincinnati's Big Red Machine and the current Braves regime. In fact, the only flaw in his record to date has been a spate of bloated contracts he gave to mediocre players back in 1998, which may have been simply a one time effort to convince Kevin Brown to remain a Padre. Other than that, he's been about as good as a GM gets.
Players love playing for Bruce Bochy. He's even-handed and up-front with them, and for his honesty and integrity the players reward him with a supreme effort. Even reputed malcontents like Rickey Henderson have always been on their best behavior around Bochy. He does a pretty good job keeping young pitchers from overworking themselves, although he did seem to lapse with Sterling Hitchcock and Eaton. He does a fine job managing the bullpen, although with a closer as dependable and resilient as Hoffman, his job is not as hard as some. About the only flaw in Bochy's resume has been his tendency to out-manage himself: putting the hit and run on with the pitcher batting because no one would expect it, etc. However, he hasn't done as much of that in the last couple of years and he's actually begun to tone down the number of line-ups he employs. If he keeps this up, he's gonna find himself on the list of the game's greatest managers.
Rating: 75