Oakland A's
 

The Oakland A's came into last season as the heavy favorites to win the AL West.  But just like the Spanish Inquisition, nobody expected the Mariners to set an American League record for wins in a season.  With the changes in Seattle and the unlikelyhood that the Ms can match last year's record-setting performance, the A's should again be favorites.
 

Hitting

The A's lost considerable firepower this offseason with the free agent defections of Jason Giambi and Johnny Damon.  Losing Giambi was like taking the V8 engine out of a full-sized car and replacing it with a four barrel; it'll still get you to most places but might not make it up the hills.  To replace Giambi the A's traded for highly regarded first base prospect Carlos Pena.  While Pena may not be the answer to start the season, the A's feel that over the next several years, he'll develop into one of the most productive first basemen in the AL. He reminds many scouts of a young Raphael Palmeiro.  In the meantime, they'll mix in C/1B/DH Scott Hatteberg, who's a decent hitter, but nowhere near the same class as the better first basemen in the league.

The loss of Damon won't be felt as much on the offensive end as Damon had a tough year in Oakland.  Terrence Long and Eric Byrnes will cover center field this year.  Long is a similar player to Damon in power and speed, although he's not as blessed in either.  The big difference between the two is that Damon had a much better eye at the plate.  Byrnes didn't show up on a lot of prospect lists due to his age (26), but he possesses more power, comparable speed (but with superior baserunning skills) and a better knowledge of the strikezone than Long.  With the injury to Jermaine Dye, he should get ample opportunity to showcase his talent.

Speaking of Dye, he has been slow to recover from the broken leg bone he suffered in last year's playoffs.  He is the A's best outfielder, both offensively and defensively, and might not be back to full speed for a couple of months.  He'll return to the line-up fairly quickly, but will likely be limited to DHing for a while.  While this won't affect the offense greatly, it will limit the amount of flexibility manager Art Howe has, as the A's already have several players who should be limited to DHing.

Which brings me to the A's big aquisition this offseason: David Justice.  The A's presumably traded for Justice with the idea that he would be a veteran leader in the clubhouse and their regular DH.  When he's healthy and motivated he can be very productive as evidenced by his 2000 campaign - .286, 41 homers, 118 RBI, .377 on base, .584 slugging.  However, those years are far too infrequent and it's hard to be a leader from the DL.  He's played 140+ games in a season just four times in his 13 year career despite being a DH primarily for 4 of the last 5 years.  With the injury to Dye, Justice will be back in the field in left.

OF/DH Jeremy Giambi is another player who's best position is DH.  Last year, Jeremy began to emerge from years of toiling in a philistine organization (Kansas City) and his brother Jason's considerable shadow.  He's got a very good eye for balls and strikes and developing power that could peak at 25-30 homers a season.  Because of his ability to get on base - .391 last year - the A's are seriously considering him as their lead-off hitter.

The core of the A's now shifts from one player (Jason Giambi) to two: 3B Eric Chavez and SS Miguel Tejada.  Despite their relatively young age, 24 and 26 respectively, they are already 2 of the best players, both offensively and defensively, at their positions.  Both have plus power capable of 30 homers a year, and developing control of the strikezone.  Oddly enough, both took a step back in plate discipline last year, partially due to the high strike.  However, both rebounded in the second half, giving reason for optimism that they'll be back on track this year.

C Ramon Hernandez is not in their class offensively, but he's a solid line-drive hitter who makes contact with just about everything.  His groundball-to-flyball ratio doesn't bode well for a dramatic increase in home runs, but he's capable of hitting 15-20 a year for the next several years.

Second base has been somewhat of an issue for the A's.  Last year, phenom Jose Ortiz was supposed to take over and become an All-Star.  He started out slowly, didn't show the requisite plate discipline the A's like to see, and was shipped out in a trade.  Serviceable veteran Frank Menechino took over for the rest of 2001 and was joined this offseason by another serviceable veteran Randy Velarde.  The hope is that one of those guys can mark time long enough for future lead-off hitter Esteban German to develop.  German was blazing speed and other-worldly plate discipline: he's stolen 211 bases in 4 years in the minors and his career on base is .407.  Another possibility is shortstop prospect Mark Ellis moving to second.  He doesn't possess German's speed or on base, but his numbers are good in those aspects and he has more power than German.  And unlike German, he's also had a good spring training unfettered by visa troubles.

The personnel losses will definitely affect the A's offense.  If the young players like Pena, Giambi, Byrnes and German can step in and produce fairly quickly, the A's won't see much of a drop-off.  If however, the A's must depend on their veteran replacements, they could suffer a significant drop in run scoring.
Rating: 65
 

Pitching

Pitching, especially starting pitching is the real strength of this club.  Led by a troika of young unflappable pitchers, the A's feature what many consider baseball's best rotation.  Lefties Mark Mulder and Barry Zito and right-hander Tim Hudson are all 26 or younger.  While none of them has an overpowering fastball, each has good control of at least 3 above average pitches.  Zito's curve is rated as one of the best in the game; Yankee manager Joe Torre once suggested it is the best since Sandy Koufax was playing, although Bert Blyleven boosters might dispute that.  Each has been spectacular for stretches and it's only a matter of time and health before these 3 are compared to the great rotations in history.  Health is a concern as Zito and Mulder have thrown a lot of innings at a young age, but Howe has been careful with the pitch counts and none of them have shown any signs of injury to date.

The 4th starter is journeyman Cory Lidle, but he's a journeyman in resume only.  A control pitcher, he figured out last year he couldn't overpower hitters with his fastball, and the results were positive.  Eric Hiljus, who might have the best pure stuff on the staff, will follow in the 5th spot.  Like Lidle, Hiljus has bumped around several organizations before finally figuring out how to control his pitches.  With these 5, the A's not only present problems for any potential playoff opponent with their quality front 3, but their quality depth assures that they have a chance to win every game of the regular season.

The bullpen has quality as well, but not as much.  The A's traded in their closer Jason Isringhausen for a harder throwing Billy Koch.  Koch is one of the few pitchers in baseball who's fastball touches triple digits on occasion.  He doesn't have particularly good control of it, nor does he have a consistent breaking pitch he can show to hitters to keep them from sitting dead red.  He could become practically unhittable if either aspect improves.

Jim Mecir, Jeff Tam, Mike Magnante and Chad Bradford round out the bullpen.  None of them possess anything overpowering, but all do a workmanlike quality job of getting to the closer.
Rating: 70
 

Defense

Chavez, Tejada and Hernandez are at least above average and Pena is reported to be very agile around the bag.  Menechino and Velarde both have good range at second.  The outfield, however, is porous.  The last time Justice played the field regularly (1999), he had the third worst range in baseball.  Even when he was in the National League, his range was always near the bottom.  The same is true for Long in center.  The A's situation in right is even more dire.  Byrnes won't remind anyone of Dwayne Murphy, but at least his range is average.  Fortunately, the A's feature a predominantly groundball pitching staff.  However, Zito and Hiljus might be in for some extra excitement.
Rating: 55
 

Management

Much has been written about GM Billy Beane and the job he's done with a small budget.  He's done a remarkable job of trading for good talent, finding gems amongst minor league free agents and developing a plan for success throughout the organization.  The only blot on his resume so far has been the organization's reluctance to give Jason Giambi a no-trade clause in contract negotiations last year, which opened the door for his departure.  In Beane's defense, part if not most of that decision came from ownership.  Other than that, his record has been sterling.

Many stathead pundits use the A's organization as proof that market size doesn't matter.  However, there are two ways of looking at their success, specifically Beane's.  The first is this: how many people, much less potential GMs, are as smart as Beane?  Here's a guy who clearly understands numbers, but he also understands scouting.  Of all the people I've met in baseball, on both sides of the fence - media, scouts, coaches, players, sabermetricians, fans - fewer than 1% understand as much about all aspects of the game as Beane.  He's a pretty unique animal, who happens to be employed in a job he seems to have been born to do.  Other GMs have the reputation of being as adept - Dan O'Dowd and Brian Cashman are the most frequently mentioned.  But given their mixed record of transactions and results, does anyone honestly think that either of those two guys could have accomplished as much as Beane given his budget constraints?  Not in a hundred years.  Kevin Towers in San Diego is starting to approach Beane's stardom under a similar budget, but until the Padres are regulars in the playoff picture, that acclaim may be premature.  There is only one Billy Beane and to expect every other team to be able to find some anyone as capable, which is the essence of the stathead argument - that you just need to find a really smart guy to run things - is incredibly naive.  It'd be like saying that any business can thrive - it just needs a guy like Bill Gates running it.  The second argument is this: lets assume that it is possible to find 29 Beane clones to run the other ballclubs... wouldn't the teams with the most money have a distinct advantage?  All that to say Billy Beane is a pretty good GM.

Manager Art Howe doesn't get a lot of credit, largely because he doesn't do a whole lot: he doesn't hit and run or bunt or pitch out or make a lot of substitutions.  About the only thing he does more than most is intentionally walk batters.  The other thing he doesn't do a lot is panic, which, with a young team like the A's, is probably the single most important character trait a manager could have.  Last year the A's got off to a dreadful start and many were jumping off the playoff bandwagon.  But there was Howe, as if nothing had happened, assuring his team that nothing was wrong, that they were just going through a bad streak at a time when bad streaks look worse than they are.  The team righted itself and made an impressive charge to the playoffs, finishing with the second best record in baseball.  Howe should be applauded for not only his fortitude, but his resisting the temptation to try to make things happen, as too many managers try to do when they are on the hot seat.  Far more often than not, that kind of "urgency" just leads to disaster.
Rating: 80