Montreal Expos
There is a strong likelihood that the Expos will not exist next year. There's no stadium deal, few fans coming to the games and the rest of the owners would rather contract the team, then bargain expansion fees than to just let the team be bought and moved. Speaking of owners, how is it in the best interests of baseball that an owner (Jeffrey Loria) who couldn't even negotiate local radio or TV broadcasting rights for his team (the Expos) should be allowed to sell his team at a profit and then buy a more profitable team (the Marlins)? I thought the idea here was to develop franchises, not to strangle them into oblivion. If a child doesn't take care of his/her bicycle, does it make sense that he/she should be given a car? It's a shame, too, because this team has the potential to be a very fast bike.
Hitting
No one has ever debated that the Expos don't have some impressive talent on the field. If they have, they haven't been watching the games. The Expos boast several players who are either the best at their position, or pretty near the best. The most obvious example is Vladimir Guerrero. I could run down the list of superlatives for Guerrero: .965 career OPS; at least 34 homers, 100 runs and 100 RBI in each of the last 4 seasons; stole 37 bases last season becoming the first 30/30 player in Expos history... But the most telling detail about Guerrero is how many teams claim their latest hot prospect is the "next Vlad Guerrero". And the original one is only 26 years old. With new manager Frank Robinson guiding him, Guerrero could become the first player to hit 50 homers, with 200 hits and 30 steals in a single season.
Jose Vidro is only a year older than Guerrero, but he's already among the most productive second basemen in the game. He's been nicked up by injuries in two of the past 3 years and begins this season with a hairline fracture in his shoulder. So far the only impediment has been that he's not hitting as many homers as he's capable. But his power should return by mid-season and he should still finish the season with 60-70 extra base hits.
Orlando Cabrera has always been highly regarded for his defense, but last year it was his offense that attracted extra attention. He reached double digits in homers for the second consecutive season, but an increase in playing time resulted in 41 doubles, 96 RBI and 19 steals, all substantial increases over previous seasons. At 27, it's likely that those won't be the last of the substantial increases he'll see on offense.
When he's healthy, Fernando Tatis is one of the most gifted third basemen in the league. Three years ago, he topped .950 OPS with the Cardinals, hitting 31 doubles, 34 homers, scoring 104 runs, driving in 107 and stealing 21 bases. However, groin and knee injuries have limited him to just 469 at bats over the last 2 seasons. The Expos are taking their time with him, hoping that he can get fully healthy by the end of May. There have been some questions about his dedication, which may serve to motivate him once he returns.
The Expos are giving two promising young outfielders an opportunity to display their considerable skills. Both Peter Bergeron and Brad Wilkerson have discerning eyes at the plate. Wilkerson, one of the best 2-way stars in collegiate history, has good power and promising speed. Bergeron has often been likened to a young Brett Butler, as he has good speed, above average bunting skills and a hard-nosed style of play.
Michael Barrett has been compared to Scott Rolen: good power and a good eye at the plate and a fearlessness in the field. Unfortunately for the everyone involved, he hasn't been given a chance to develop in the last 3 years, having been switched from catcher to third and back again and never much of an opportunity to play regularly. Robinson expressed confidence in Barrett this spring, making him the everyday catcher regardless of his struggles. Barrett has rewarded that confidence with a hot start and play that justifies his earlier comparisons.
None of the players mentioned so far is older than 27 years old. However, the Expos are not without veteran leadership. Lee Stevens still provides pop and a steady glove at first base, and Andres Galarraga and Henry Rodriguez, both of whom enjoyed their first major league success in an Expo uniform, have returned to add depth to the bench. Chris Truby will man third base until Tatis returns and Mike Mordecai is a valuable utilityman, capable of playing any position competently but catcher and pitcher. They also have uber-prospect Brandon Phillips tearing up AA pitching (1.177 OPS as of April 25), waiting for a promotion. Outfield prospect Ron Calloway might also see some time in the bigs this year.
The Expos have talent. What they have lacked is discipline and purpose at the plate. Manager Frank Robinson will have the respect of his players with his Hall of Fame resume and commanding presence. In previous stops as a skipper, he has been able to instill those characteristics in his hitters. There's no reason to expect him to do less here.
Rating: 65
Pitching
The Expo pitching staff was thin coming into this season. They only had two starters with legitimate star talent and a bullpen that was rather underwhelming. However, GM Omar Minaya pulled off a great trade with the division rival Mets that immediately gave the Montreal staff legitimacy. In exchange closer Scott Strickland, he landed Bruce Chen and Dicky Gonzales. Chen is a top tier talent who's been shipped around due to a perceived lack of commitment. That's not likely to continue under Frank Robinson. Gonzales is a solid middle of the rotation pitcher on a team that only needs a fifth starter.
At the top are Javier Vazquez and Tony Armas Jr. Vazquez is still largely unknown by the public, but was very much in contention for the Cy Young award last season until an errant Ryan Dempster pitch broke his eye socket and ended his season prematurely. Vazquez opened this season showing no ill-effects from the injury and once again looks like a strong candidate for end of the year honors. He's one of the few pitchers in baseball who feature 5 above average pitches. Armas is another. Just 23, he still struggles with control. But when he's on, he can be very tough to hit, as evidenced by his 8 outings last season in which he allowed 3 hits or less.
There's still hope that Carl Pavano will stay healthy enough to realize his potential as a top of the rotation starter. So far, that hasn't happened. He's been plagued by elbow problems for all of his 4 year major league career, which has left his fastball a few miles per hour shorter than it was when he was a top prospect for the Red Sox. While he'll probably never pitch well enough to justify the trade that brought him and Armas to Montreal (for Pedro Martinez), there's still hope that he can stay healthy enough to contribute 180 innings of quality starts.
The bullpen is less certain. Strickland, and the consistently good closing he brought, is gone. In his place, Matt Herges, TJ Tucker and Graeme Lloyd will cobble together a closing committee, with Herges getting the majority of the opportunities. Herges has been reliable so far, but his history suggests that he won't be the sole closer: his numbers with 1 or no days rest have been significantly worse than they are with 2 or more days rest.
Tomo Ohka and Masato Yoshii are are solid pitchers capable of starting or relieving. Scott Stewart and Britt Reames are both young, but have the talent to be solid relievers. The Expos also have a number of quality arms in the high minors who could help out in the pen. The most notable are Donnie Bridges, Clifton Lee and Ron Chiavacci.
Defense
At worst, the Expos defense will be good. At best, it could be extraordinary. Cabrera is arguably the best shortstop in the league, having won his first of what will be many gold gloves last year. His range is exceptional. Vidro is solid at second. If Phillips gets promoted, they'll likely play him at short or second and move Vidro to third. Phillips is a brilliant fielder and can play any of the infield positions. Tatis is about average in the field. Lee Stevens may not have the range he once did, but one would be hard-pressed to find a first baseman who's better at turning errant throws into outs. Guerrero has a legendary arm in right and good range. Once he learns he doesn't have to show off his ability any more, he'll be the best right fielder in the game. Wilkerson has a strong, accurate arm in left - well, he was a pitcher in college - and above average range. Bergeron has average range in center, but gets good reads and has an accurate arm. Barrett has good skills behind the plate, although he hasn't been able to reign in the opposition running game. With Phillips or a healthy Tatis, the Expos have one of the best team defenses in the game.
Rating: 60 (with potential for 70)
Management
This is Omar Minaya's first chance at running a team. It's unfortunate that it will probably only be for one year. So far, the reviews have to be slightly positive as he was essentially able to trade a set-up man (Guillermo Mota) for 2 starting pitchers (Chen and Gonzales). The one thing that has always been said of Minaya, since his days as the scouting director for the Rangers is that he has an excellent eye for spotting talent. It was under his leadership that the Rangers signed Sammy Sosa, Juan Gonzales, Rich Aurilia and Fernando Tatis. This will be an intense year for him as he's basically having to do everything from scratch: the previous ownership took all the Expos records, scouting reports and computers with them to Florida. And because his tenure will be brief, every move will be under scrutiny. What will be a tremendous help to Minaya is that Frank Robinson has been here before. He's taken teams in lousy positions and made the best of them. He took over an O's team in 1988 that set a record for season opening futility and had them contending until the final weekend the following year. His teams always improve on offense, especially in getting on base, and his pitching staffs almost always improve, especially in the area of giving up homers. This Expos team may be the most talented club he's ever managed, so if he continues to work the same kind of magic that he has in the past, they could be a big surprise in the East.
Rating: 60