Minnesota Twins
 

The Twins surprised a lot of people last year with their push toward the playoffs, myself included.  However, an ill-conceived deadline deal which presaged a late season swoon trade left them 6 wins shy of a division title.  This offseason, the Twins "survived" the threat of contraction and come into the 2002 campaign with high hopes and a chip on their shoulder.
 

Hitting

The Twins as an organization have taught "small ball" to their players for much of the past decade.  While bunting and hit and run have their place in the game, baseball in the 21st century is predominantly a sluggers game, and will be for the foreseeable future until batters are forbidden from wearing armor and hanging over the plate when they bat.  The 2001 Twins did all the little things well, but just didn't have enough sock in the line-up to stay with the other playoff contenders.  This year might be a different story.

DH David Ortiz spent a good portion of the 2001 season on the DL.  Talent-wise, he's probably the Twins most fearsome hitter.  Four years of head-games from former manager Tom Kelly had slowed his progress, but Ortiz opened the season hitting .311, with 6 homers and 7 doubles in a little over a month.  A fractured wrist in May cost him 2 months on the DL and much of timing and power when he returned.  If he can avoid the DL this year, he's fully capable of topping 1.000 OPS and driving in 100 runs.

3B Corey Koskie and CF Torii Hunter exceeded many preseason projections with breakout years in the power department.  Both can be counted on to replicate their 2001 numbers.

Brian Buchanan, Mike Cuddyer and Dustan Mohr will compete for at bats from right field and DH.  Buchanan is the favorite to open the season in right and probably has the most power of the three.  He comes into this season with a reputation of being unable to hit right handers, which is partially true as his on base and slugging are significantly lower against them.  However, his numbers weren't dreadful and they have improved in each of the last 2 years.  Cuddyer has the most upside and has played well this spring, but might begin the season in AAA simply because he still has options left.  Mohr, who's also having a nice spring, is coming off a strong season in AA.  He displayed some nice power, but his age (26) tempers what should be expected of him in the majors.

The middle infield is manned by SS Cristian Guzman and 2B Luis Rivas.  Even though Guzman only hit 10 homers last year, he was 3rd on the team in slugging, largely due to his league leading 14 triples.  Guzman, who'll turn 25 this season, has improved his on base by 30 points and his slugging by 100 points in each of the past 3 years.  He won't have to improve by that much to join the elite of the AL's slugging shortstops.  Rivas is just 22, but is showing some of the same offensive skills that Guzman displayed three years ago.

1B Doug Mientkiewicz basically came out of nowhere last year.  A dark horse to make the 2000 Olympic team, he finished as one of the team's slugging heroes.  Even then, most people took little notice.  It wasn't until June of last year when he was among the league leaders in batting average that people finally learned how to pronounce his name (ment-KAY-vich).  Never much of a home run hitter, he posted decent slugging numbers in 2001 thanks to smoking 39 doubles.

While he could benefit from more selectivity at the plate and on the basepaths, LF Jacque Jones is a solid all-around player with decent power and speed.

Behind the plate, AJ Pierzinski, Matt LeCroy and Tom Prince will share time with Pierzinski getting the lion's share.  LeCroy is the most accomplished of the three as a hitter, but his defense may force him to either DH or first.  Pierzinski showed some power potential last year by hitting 33 doubles in just 381 at bats.  Prince is a career back-up.

All totaled, the Twins will field a regular line-up in which every hitter but one is capable of posting a minimum on base of .350 and a slugging of .450 (Rivas is the only "weak" link).  There's not a lot of depth here except in right and at DH, so any significant injuries could be hard to overcome.  But if the Twins stay relatively healthy, they could score 850 runs this year.
Rating: 60
 

Pitching

The Twins boast the strongest starting pitching in their division. LHSP Eric Milton, RHSP Brad Radke and RHSP Joe Mays were in the top 25 in the AL in ERA last year, despite pitching in a hitter's park.  Late season addition RHSP Rick Reed also made the top 25.  Only the Seattle Mariners and Oakland A's had as many in the top 25; the difference being that they pitched in the 2nd and 3rd best pitcher's parks in the AL.

Milton probably has the best pure stuff on the staff.  The only thing keeping him from becoming one of the top 3 or 4 starters in the AL is his high home run rate.  Reed and Mays are primarily groundball pitchers; Radke and Milton get flyball outs.  With the  Twins' superior defense, it doesn't really matter - batted balls that can be outs, usually are.  Reed was hailed as another staff ace when he came over in trade from the NL, but he's really more suited to the middle of the rotation.  Most of his acclaim is due to pitching in Shea, where he posted an ERA of 3.92 over the past 3 years (as opposed to his road ERA of 4.52).

RHSP Kyle Lohse has pretty much cemented his name into the 5th spot with a great spring, and could move up if he gains any sort of consistency against lefties.

The bullpen is not as good as the rotation, but looks like a solid crew. LHRP Eddie Guardado will get most of the save opportunities and rightly so: he was the toughest to hit and had the highest strikeout rate of any of the closing candidates.  Bob Wells, LaTroy Hawkins and newly acquired Mike Jackson will set him up from the right side. Travis Miller and JC Romero will likely cover the left-handed set-up.
Rating: 60
 

Defense

There's no better defensive team in baseball than the Twins.  They boast two of the best defensive players in baseball at 2 positions (centerfield and first base), 2 more who are well above average (left field and third base) and 2 more who have the tools to be among the best but just need a little more discipline on routine plays (shortstop and second base).  Behind the plate they are above average and Buchanan in right is decent; his biggest flaw appears to be that he's not Roberto Clemente.  Cuddyer, who is slated to eventually man right field, is a slight improvement defensively.
Rating: 75
 
 

Management

There is optimism that new manager Ron Gardenhire will allow his players more freedom to play.  Tom Kelly's disciplinary regime was helpful in that it prepared his players to perform in just about any situation, but it may have been at the expense of allowing the players to fully develop their real talents.  GM Terry Ryan was hamstrung in his efforts to improve the team this offseason by the aborted "contraction" fiasco, but may not have needed to do much anyway except for perhaps bolster a somewhat anemic bench.

However, if last year was any example, the point may be moot as it's unclear that he would make the right moves to fix a glaring hole anyway.  The 2001 Twins were a team of getting on base and barely scoring enough to win by playing small ball.  They had enough starting pitching to compete and the bullpen was finally beginning to take shape.  So what did Ryan do to try to improve the team down the stretch?  Instead of getting a power bat to augment the team's ability to score runs - especially needed considering DH Ortiz was still suffering from his wrist injury - he traded his teams' best on base threat for a starter who's history outside one of baseball's best pitcher's parks is dubious.  In effect, he shot himself in the foot twice with the same bullet.  He did as much with another trade just a few days before - dealing promising starter Mark Redman to Detroit for lame duck closer Todd Jones, who had also been the beneficiary of a great pitcher's park.  While Ryan may be a wiz at drafting talent, his ability to help his club in the stretch run appears to be negligible.
Rating: 50