Houston Astros
 

Sometimes you just have to scratch your head.  After managing the Astros to 4 division titles in 5 years, Larry Dierker was fired as manager of the team, despite winning his fourth title last year.  One has to wonder what Houston management meant when they said they needed a new direction.  True, his team always seemed to be jinxed when it came to the postseason, but that was probably not be entirely his fault.  In retrospect, considering the lack of quality depth on the bench and in the rotation, the Astros first round exits are not all that surprising.  And perhaps some of the frustrations of making the playoffs nearly every year with nothing to show for it finally brought simmering emotions to a boil.  Still, it's hard to believe that a manager with that kind of success would be let go.  Even more surprising is that Jimy Williams, who had similar success with less to work with in Boston, would be available.  But you still have to scratch your head: how can two managers who've won so consistently be sacked so easily, yet there are several managers who've consistently lost, yet not only keep their jobs for far longer than they should (Tony Muser comes to mind) but get re-hired as managers somewhere else (Bob Boone, Hal McRae, Don Baylor, Phil Garner, Jeff Torborg).
 

Hitting

There has never really been any question about the productiveness of the Astro's everyday line-up.  They are talented and deep, in large part due to a farm system that has been one of the most productive in the majors.  The entire Astros outfield is a product of their farm system as is half their infield.

Lance Berkman, aka, "Caveman", established himself as one of the best hitters in the National League last year with 34 homers, 55 doubles, 110 runs scored and 126 RBI to go along with a .331 average.  At 26, he leads a vanguard of superior young outfielders that will likely produce 100 homers and 300 RBI annually for the next 5-10 years if the Astros can keep them.  Richard Hidalgo is the best defensive outfielder of the group and a quality run producer in his own right.  Last year was considered a down year for him (.275, 19 homers, 80 RBI) after an astonishing breakout season in 2000 (.314, 44 homers, 122 RBI), but his normal level of production should be somewhere nicely in between.  Daryl Ward, the newcomer to the group, possesses as much power as anyone on the team.  In 2000, he popped 20 homers in just 264 major league at bats.  His minor league numbers show a player capable of 30-40 homers annually.  Jason Lane will open the season in AAA, but he'll be in Houston for good by next season.  He might end up as the best of the four as he has excellent speed and baserunning skills in addition to plus power.

Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell head up a potentially outstanding offensive infield.  While the days of stealing 30+ bases are probably behind him, especially after knee surgery in 2000, Biggio still has the excellent all-around skills that prompted Bill James to call him one of the 5 best second basemen ever.  And while many people have predicted that he won't be stealing bases anymore because of declining speed, he could and probably will bag about 20 steals just on his ability to read pitchers.  By the time this season is finished, it wouldn't be at all surprising to see Biggio with yet another 20/20 season and an OPS around .850.

Bagwell is the only Astros regular who is not originally from the Astros organization, although he has played his entire a major league career in Houston.  As good as he is, he sometimes gets lost in discussions about the greatest first basemen ever.  But a guy who's lifetime OPS of .970 playing in one of the toughest pitcher's ballparks - the Astrodome - for the majority of his career must be considered.  He has been about as consistent as anyone in the majors the last 5 years, averaging 41 homers, 127 RBI, 131 runs scored, and 120 walks a season.  What hasn't been consistent is his stolen bases, which have ranged from a high of 31 in 1997 to a low of 9 in 2000.  But low steal rates are not usually a complaint held against first basemen.

The left side of the infield will be manned by 3 young players looking to make a lasting impression.  Julio Lugo and Adam Everett will share the shortstop duties.  Lugo, the superior offensive player, has the talent to be a star infielder, hitting for double digit totals in doubles, triples and homers while stealing 20-30 bases a season.  Everett is the superior defensive player, but possess decent offensive skills as well.  Morgan Ensberg will be making a go of becoming the everyday third baseman.  He has decent power and is a solid contact hitter, a la Shea Hillenbrand, although with a little more practice drawing walks.  All three of these players are 26 years old or younger.

Behind the plate, the Astros will have two cagey veterans.  Brad Ausmus is regarded as a superior defensive player, but has developed into a serviceable offensive player capable of hit and run, bunt and an occasional stolen base.  His back-up will be switch-hitting Greg Zaun, who defense is serviceable, but has worked himself into becoming a pretty good hitter.

The Astros have a deep and talented line-up and, given the park they play in, should be among the top 2 or 3 teams in the NL in run scoring.
Rating: 65
 

Pitching

Like the hitting, the Houston pitching is predominately young players with a few veterans mixed in.  Even though neither is older than 26, Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller are the aces of the Astros staff.  Both possess fastballs that reach the mid-90s and above average breaking pitches.  Oswalt takes it one step further with incredibly accurate location of his pitches.  It would not be at all surprising for both pitchers to win Cy Young awards during the course of their careers.  Lefty Carlos Hernandez and right-hander Tim Redding also have considerable upside.  With better location of their tremendous stuff, these two could join Oswalt and Miller as perennial Cy Young candidates.  The Astros have two more exciting young starters not far away in the minors: Brad Lidge and Peter Munro.  Lefty Wilfredo Rodriguez could join them if he could ever get past the injury bug that has plagued him the last two years.

The two veterans in the starting rotation are Shane Reynolds and Dave Mlicki.  Neither has overpowering stuff, but usually keep the team in games with good location.

The Astros bullpen is led by the best lefty reliever in baseball, Billy Wagner.  Wagner came back last year after elbow surgery and showed glimpses of the form that set records in three consecutive years for strikeouts per inning.  This year, he should be fully back and once again striking out hitters at a rate of nearly one and a half per inning.  Octavio Dotel returns as his primary set-up man, and is a strikeout artist in his own right.  Between them, they should strike out over 200 batters, an astounding number for a relief tandem.

However, after those two, the pen is rather suspect.  TJ Mathews, who was once dealt for Mark McGwire, returns to the Central division.  He will join Brandon Puffer, Ricky Stone and Scott Linebrink, all of whom have a lot to prove at the major league level.  At some point, the Astros will likely trade for some depth here.

If the young pitchers live up to their potential, the Astros will probably run away with the division.  However, young pitchers rarely mature at the same rate and this could be a learning curve year for the Astros pitching.
Rating: 60 (75 talent)
 

Defense

This will be a rather unusual Astros club in that they probably won't be a great team defensively.  Bagwell and Biggio are gold glovers but both are getting older and may be losing a step.  Everett has a good glove, but his bat may keep him from making an impact with it.  Lugo can be decent, but makes far too many mental errors to be relied upon consistently.  Ensberg comes in with a reputation of being rather average on defense.  Hidalgo is a decent outfielder, but both Berkman and Ward have below average range and arms.  Ausmus is a strong receiver, but it remains to be seen if his bat can keep him ahead of Zaun.
Rating: 50
 

Management

GM Gerry Hunsicker took a lot of flack from his players for letting Moises Alou go this winter, and maybe rightfully so.  Alou is a terrific hitter who gives a team numerous options on offense.  However, he's also very injury prone and the Astros may have just as productive a player in Ward simply because he stays in the line-up more.  He also caught some flack from the players for trading Mike Hampton and Derek Bell a few years ago, but no one has been complaining since.  It could be that he simply knows what he's doing, especially when it comes to acquiring young talent.  One thing they won't deny him is that he's done a very good job getting good players for the playoff stretch runs.  Things may not have worked out for the Astros in the playoffs, but that can't be blamed on the GM.  Jimy Williams caught a lot of flack from his players in Boston for messing with the line-ups a little more than they would have preferred.  However, given the personnel he had at his disposal, one would be hard pressed to argue with his results.  He also proved to be masterful using his bullpen.  The big difference here is that Williams has a team largely comprised of young players, where in Boston he was surrounded by veterans.  Because of that, there should be less friction with his players... that is, as long as his strategies result in wins.
Rating: 65