Colorado RockiesThe Colorado Rockies are cursed by a field that distorts the abilities of it's players so dramatically that it's nearly impossible to build a winning team. Or at least it has been to date. However, GM Dan O'Dowd's tinkering is leading him closer to a formula that might work in the mile-high altitude.
Hitting
Run scoring is rarely a problem in Colorado. Despite the great expanse of Coors field, every offensive category gets a considerable boost in the thin air. It's simply physics. The ball travels farther, so in order to keep the ball from going out on infield pop-ups, they make the field larger, thereby creating more gaps for non-homer hits to go for extra bases. It's pretty simple. So the key to having a great offense at Coors is to have guys who get on base and who put the ball in the air when they make contact.
To that end, the Rockies added Benny Agbayani this offseason. For his career, he has nearly the same split of flyballs to groundballs, which becomes even less pronounced the more at bats he gets. He's also a hitter who's lifetime on base percentage is .370. A similar player acquired this winter was outfield prospect Jack Cust. However, Cust's problems playing the field are well chronicled so it remains to be seen if the Rockies will play him or trade him to an American League team.
Also adding to the mix this season are two youngsters who have the potential to be the best power hitting middle field tandem outside of San Francisco. Juan Uribe and Jose Ortiz have both displayed 20 homer power and decent speed. Both players put the ball in the air and, while both still struggle with pitch recognition, both are showing improved patience at the plate.
Todd Zeile was an odd addition to this team, largely because his groundball/flyball ratio had increased in each of the last 5 seasons. Worse, Zeile has never been a paragon of on base, although his .349 career mark is not exactly damning. Still, it seems odd to bring in a 36-year old player who's trends are going the wrong way for a reversal of fortune.
Another puzzling addition was that of Gary Bennett. Here's a catcher who's career on base was a back-up worthy .321 with a groundball to flyball ratio of 1.63. To make matters more puzzling, the Rockies already had a good hitting catcher in Ben Petrick, who's an extreme flyball hitter, projecting to 20+ homers a season, with a .350 career on base. While he still struggles behind the plate, it'd be interesting to see if Petrick's far superior bat would create more runs than Bennett's superior defense would prevent.
At the top of the line-up Juan Pierre gets things started. He has a career on base percentage of .372 entering this season and plenty of speed to not only steal 40-50 bases, but to leg out a number of doubles and triples on balls hit to the gaps. The only downside to his game is that the overwhelming number of his balls in play are groundballs.
The heart of the Rockies order is about the only thing that hasn't changed over the last 3 years. Todd Helton and Larry Walker are the driving force in the Rockies offense. Both players have hit 49 homers in a season and both have hit over .350. While Coors Field can take some of the credit for their success, they are still good hitters away from the thin air: Helton has a .942 OPS away from Colorado the last 3 years; Walker, an .891.
The Rockies are getting closer to the right formula for an offensive juggernaut in the high altitude. However, unless Ortiz and Uribe develop much better on base skills and Zeile reverses a career trend, they will have trouble ridding themselves of an over-rated label.
Rating: 55
Pitching
The key to pitching at Coors hs been a little more elusive, but it's becoming increasingly clear that in order to succeed there, you need pitcher's who don't care about ERA and who have a well-above average sinking fastball with which to prevent the opposition batters from putting the ball in the air. One pitcher on their current staff stands out as a guy who'll do that: John Thomson. Thomson has struggled with injuries the past several years, but when he's been healthy, he's been effective at altitude. He's shown good control of the strikezone and an improving strikeout rate. With his power sinker and tendency to induce groundballs, he could be the template by which all successful Rockies pitchers follow.
Young Jason Jennings is another in that power sinker mold. His numbers at AAA Colorado Springs show a pitcher unfazed by the high altitude. Once he irons out some of the consistency issues that come with the first few times around the league, he should become a fine starter. Shawn Chacon has the makings of becoming an above average starter, but perhaps not in Colorado. He has a good fastball with life, but hasn't been able to sink it. He also has a good curve, but at altitude, it breaks too late to be used effectively.
The Rockies two big name pitchers are both lefties, which should offer a tough change of perspective for opposing hitters. However, neither Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle possess the power repertoire that appears necessary for long term success in Colorado. Both have the disposition to endure the occasional high altitude pummeling, but both may end up white elephants for the Rockies, as neither promises to enjoy great success in Colorado and both have unwieldy contracts.
The bullpen was revamped this offseason. Closer Jose Jimenez remains, but most of the support cast was shipped out. In their place is Rick White, Todd Jones, Mike James, Denys Reyes and a rejuvenated Kent Mercker. While Jimenez may walk a lot of batters and strike out too few to be ideal, he's still an excellent choice for closing duties with his power sinker and extreme groundball/flyball ratio. With the exception of Mercker, the new additions also have strong groundball tendencies.
Rating: 50
Defense
At Coors Field, more than any other ballpark, it is imperative to have outfielders with excellent range. Without them, it's just too easy for the opposition to turn flyballs to the gaps into extra base hits. Pierre covers a good amount of ground in center and Walker is no wallflower. Agbayani is below average range-wise and his potential platoon-mate Todd Hollandsworth is only slightly better. Zeile doesn't offer much range at third, nor does Ortiz at second. Scouts like Uribe's range and Helton is a good defender at first. The catching defense fluctuates wildly between above average with Bennett to below average with Petrick.
Rating: 50
Management
For all the applause Dan O'Dowd has received by the analysts, he really hasn't done much. It seems for every step he takes forward to establishing a team that can win in Denver, he takes one step back. He also has yet to commit to any kind of philosophy, instead vacillating between trying to embody an ideal (having a high on base, great-defense team) and playing it safe (signing players like Zeile and Neagle who are ill-suited to thriving in Coors, but who have name recognition). He's done a good job of identifying talent on the trade front, but his record with free agents is mixed at best. Buddy Bell is probably on the managerial hot seat this year and maybe rightfully so. His teams employ an annoying number of small-ball strategies - the Rockies had the second most sacrifice bunts and the sixth most hit-and-run attempts in baseball last year. He also has a tendency to leave his starters in for more pitches than most, despite the fact that they pitch in thinner air and thus fatigue much faster than players do at sea level. His teams also seem cheerfully oblivious to the idea that getting on base, especially here, means scoring runs. True, they led the league in overall on base percentage, but away from Coors they posted a .321 on base, which would be 4th worst in the NL. If they had any kind of on base strategy, they would lap the league in getting on base and in run scoring.
Rating: 40