Cleveland Indians
 

For most of the past decade, the Cleveland Indians have dominated the AL Central.  Former GM John Hart was a significant reason why, signing quality young talent to long term contracts, thereby saving money to spend on free agents to fill holes on the roster.  He also surrounded himself with quality scouting talent who continued to produce productive players throughout his tenure.  Hart is now gone to greener pastures - namely big-budget Texas - and is replaced at the helm by protégé Mark Shapiro.  Unfortunately, the team Shapiro inherited may have too many players who are either aged or almost entirely inexperienced.
 

Hitting

The Tribe attack was the second most potent in the AL in 2001, but with the losses of Roberto Alomar, Kenny Lofton and Juan Gonzales, this year's version will be considerably less fearsome.  1B Jim Thome is still the heart of the attack and will likely post his customary numbers - 35-40 HRs, 100+ walks, RBI and runs, 170+ Ks, .400 on base and high .500s slugging.  To replace Gonzales in the outfield, the Indians brought in Matt Lawton and free agent Brady Anderson.  Lawton will actually do a nice job of replacing Alomar's offensive numbers near the top of the line-up.  Moving back to the AL and away from pitcher-friendly Shea should rejuvenate his on base and slugging back to 2000 levels.  Anderson is coming off his worst year as a full-time player and has looked like a man on a mission this spring.  The Indians are hoping that he can recapture his 1999 form, but at 38, that seems overly optimistic.

Ellis Burks will split time between left field, DH and the DL.  While using him in the field sparingly has kept him reasonably healthy and surprisingly productive, his age (37) may finally be starting to betray him: last year's numbers were a steep drop-off from 2000's despite moving to a more hitter friendly environment.

3B Travis Fryman also appears to be showing the signs of aging, although he's only 33.  Two of the past three years he's failed to play in at least 100 games and this spring he's looked overmatched.  Even though he may eventually prove to be a productive regular, the knee-, elbow- and shoulder injuries he's suffered over the past 2 years will make it extremely difficult for him to return to 2000 levels.

Great, or at least very good, things have been expected on OF Milton Bradley for a long time.  This year will be his first full-year opportunity to showcase his talent at the major league level.  The problem is that his minor league performance has never matched his billing.  He's a good hitter, with a strong knowledge of the strikezone and above average speed, but he's never displayed the power it takes to become a perennial star.  Somewhat forgotten in the mix of outfielders/DHs is Wil Cordero, who has never lived up to the hype surrounding his talent, and to this point looks like a career 4th outfielder.  The Indians current outfield situation might be his best and perhaps last opportunity to show otherwise.

Ed Taubensee was brought in last year to catch, but injuries and woeful defense allowed Einar Diaz to sneak into the starting job.  Diaz offensive contributions are pretty empty despite a good batting average, as he doesn't get on base that much and has only modest power.

Omar Vizquel will be joined by Ricky Gutierrez in the middle infield.  Gutierrez won't come close to replacing Alomar's production.  While he was a slightly above average hitter for a shortstop, with all the power-hitting second basemen playing, he grades out as slightly below average at second.  Vizquel, now 35, is beginning to show the ravages of father time.  After a brilliant 1999 season, his offense has been in decline for 2 straight years, losing more than 60 points in on base and more than a hundred in slugging.  More evidence that the drop isn't a fluke is his declining BB/K ratio, which with players his age is usually a sign of losing bat speed.

The Indians big offensive wild-card is Russ Branyan.  Branyan has 40-50 homer power, but only make occasional contact.  This results in both a low batting average, enormous strikeout totals, but potentially very good slugging.  The fly in the ointment is that he's never drawn a great number of walks so his on base percentage is woefully low.  While the combination makes for an exciting show, the result is that even if he hits 40 homers, his production won't be much better than that of an average outfielder.

The Indians will definitely miss Alomar and Gonzales.  With as many age questions as they have, their presence might not have made much difference.  While they still could be a decent offense, their days at the top are likely over for the foreseeable future.  One deep sleeper on this roster is perennial prospect Karim Garcia, who posted a nice season in AAA last year and if given a chance - and just judging by the ages and injury histories of some of these guys, he should get one - could turn out to be this year's Marty Cordova.
Rating: 50
 

Pitching

Security concerns from the September terrorist attack have forced a number of ballplayers to come clean about their actual ages.  Needless to say, many were actually older than was once believed.  RHSP Bartolo Colon aged 2 years this offseason, which might not be a bad thing.  There were health concerns about his workload at such a young age, but now that he's older than once thought, those concerns have lessened.  His second half numbers suggest he may be in for a big year, even though that may not be reflected in his win column.

LHSP CC Sabathia does have some concerns.  He pitched brilliantly down the stretch in 2001 and was a close contender to Ichiro Suzuki in the Rookie of the Year voting.  However, unlike Colon, there's no question about his age (he is just 21) and last year was the first in which he had thrown more than 150 innings.  Manager Charlie Manuel did not do a particularly vigilant job of monitoring his pitch counts, allowing him to top 110 pitches nine times in 34 starts, so his health bears watching.

LHSP Chuck Finley is the elder statesman of the staff.  He's adapted nicely from power pitching to a more finesse style.  He has a spotted history of slow starts, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him struggle in April and May, but turn things around the All-Star break and finish on a high note.  The only question is whether or not at age 39 he'll be able to stay off the disabled list enough to make it count.

Cuban defector RHP Dannys Baez figures to nail down the 4th spot this spring. His career splits indicate he's much better suited to the relief role in which he excelled last year.  But the Indians feel he can bring that effectiveness to the rotation.  There will obviously be questions about his ability to handle the increase in workload, but more of a question is whether or not he can master an offspeed pitch to keep batters guessing the second and third times he faces them.

The final spot in the rotation will be held by RHSP Charles Nagy and RHSP Ryan Drese.  Nagy has had so many arm operations that it's amazing he still has two of them.  The fact that he has no longer has any cartilage in his pitching elbow yet still wants to pitch is a testament to his determination.  That may not be enough to stave off Drese, who's medical history pales by comparison.  Talented RHSP Jaret Wright, who's still recovering from several injuries and surgeries, will step into the rotation if/when he ever gets healthy.

RHRP Bob Wickman heads up a pretty decent bullpen.  Wickman isn't one of the glamor closers striking batters out with high 90s heat.  Instead he gets them to hit a lot of pedestrian groundballs (2.34 for every flyball) off a low 90s sinker.  Last year, his walk rate dropped significantly and perhaps not so coincidentally, his strikeout rate rose.  So while his fastball doesn't quite match the glamor closers, his numbers do. RHRP Paul Shuey and LHRP Ricardo Rincon will act as his primary set-up men.  Both possess better pure stuff than Wickman.  Former Brave closer RHRP Mark Wohlers joined the staff this offseason as did former Dodger and White Sox closer LHRP Scott Radinsky.   RHRP David Riske adds even more quality depth.

The talent of the Indians pitching staff is unquestioned; it's health is another matter.  If they can get healthy and avoid more debilitating injuries, the Tribe has the arms to compete for the division and the AL crown.  But that's a very big if.
Rating: 60 (70 on talent)
 

Defense

Vizquel still has excellent range but his arm is not as strong as it was a couple of years ago.  Gutierrez is solid, but second is a new position for him and Cleveland fans and pitchers are accustomed to spectacular defense from Alomar.  Branyan is listed as a third baseman, played both corner outfield positions last year, but is more suited to playing first base (or DH).  Neither of the corner infielders are even average glovemen and other than Lawton, the outfield has well below average range and arms.  Diaz might be the only bright spot on a team that is significantly worse on defense than last year
Rating: 45
 

Management

The Tribe has always gotten good marks for management, at least from the front office side, due to the insightful work of John Hart.  Hart is gone and his successor doesn't appear to have the same clear vision.  There's a mixed bag of the winter acquisitions and if a high number of them don't pan out, due to the high number of large salaries attached to aging veterans on this team, there's not a lot of money to go out on the open market to get a fix.  Manuel has the vote of confidence of his players, but his own checkered health history makes him somewhat of a question mark to have a significant presence on this team.  What isn't in question is his reluctance to embrace the idea that young pitchers probably shouldn't be worked as hard as guys who are in their peak years.  That kind of thinking hs already cost the Indians one potential ace (Jaret Wright) and it may end up costing them another.
Rating: 45