Chicago Cubs
 

The Cubs underwent some significant changes this winter after fielding a fairly competitive team last year.  Most of the changes were upgrades, although they still have some holes to address.  Their farm system is one the verge of producing a very good team all by itself, which can only help the Cubs in their drive to return to the postseason for the first time since 1998.
 

Hitting

All talk of the Cubs offense usually starts with Sammy Sosa, and rightfully so.  The mistake is in thinking that all talk should end there as well.  But let's give Sammy his due - for all the chatter about Barry Bonds being by far the best hitter in the majors, according to Bill James' Runs Created formula, Sosa has actually created more runs than Bonds over the past 4 years - 584 to 548.  Part of that has to do with Sosa superior durability, but it's also a testament to the high level of production he has maintained.

But the Cubs are more than Sosa.  One of the biggest acquisitions this offseason was Moises Alou.  When he's healthy, he's an exceptional and versatile hitter - he makes quality contact on hit-and-runs, he hits for power, he gets on base with a high average and a good number of walks, he hits to all fields and he doesn't strike out a great deal for someone with his power.  As was implied, though, health is an ongoing issue with Alou.  Only twice in his 10-year career has he played 150 or more games in a season and he began this year on the DL.  The Cubs should get around 140 games from him, more than enough to deepen an improving line-up.

Fred McGriff was acquired last season in order to bolster the Cubs fading playoff hopes, but the real payoff will come this year.  McGriff can be streaky - last year his monthly averages ranged from .266 in April to .370 in May.  Over the course of a full season, however, he should be reasonably productive, providing a quality left-handed bat between right-handed Sosa and Alou.  McGriff's presence will also allow the Cubs to take their time developing promising first base prospect Hee Seop Choi.

Gone is second baseman Eric Young and in his place will be Delino DeShields until Bobby Hill is ready, which might be as soon as May.  Although DeShields doesn't possess Young's baserunning panache, he does have good speed - he's stolen 40 or more bases in a season six times - and his career on base and slugging numbers are very similar, considering Young spent 4 years in Colorado.  Hill promises to be a very good offensive second baseman.  Many compare his blend of speed, on base and power to that of a young Craig Biggio.

Corey Patterson was the first everyday player to make the majors from the Cubs incoming wave of offensive talent.  He has struggled his first 2 years in the majors, prompting some to question the wisdom of promoting a 20-year old with poor strikezone judgment to the majors.  However, he has improved each season and this spring looked very promising.  If he can realize this year even half the potential his talent suggests, 15 homers and 20 steals are certainly possible.

At short, the Cubs acquired Alex Gonzales from the Blue Jays.  Always a decent power threat, the biggest hole in his game has been discipline at the plate.  With any other club, that might be a serious concern, but hitting coach Jeff Pentland has worked wonders teaching free swingers to be more discerning.  Sosa is his finest example, who's on base has gone from .377 in 1998 steadily upwards to .437 last year.  If Gonzales, who's only 29, can show similar improvement, the Cubs could have an exceptional shortstop for the next five to eight years.

Third baseman Bill Mueller starts the season on the DL, still suffering from the lingering effects of last year's knee injury.  In his place, the Cubs will play two quality utilitymen, Chris Stynes and Mark Bellhorn.  Both players offer positional versatility and a bit of pop at the plate.  However, neither possesses Mueller's propensity for getting on base, which the Cubs will miss until his return sometime in May or possibly June.

The only real weakness in the Cubs line-up will be behind the plate, where neither Joe Girardi or Todd Hundley are the players they once were.  Hundley still has home run power, but has struggled terribly to make contact in 3 of the past 4 seasons.  Girardi makes contact, but the ball doesn't travel much past the infield any more. Robert Machado will also get some time behind the plate and is the best defensive player of the three, but possesses the weakest bat.

The bench is decent, with Roosevelt Brown, Darren Lewis and newly acquired Mario Encarnacion to help in the outfield.  Once they get past the season opening injuries, the Cubs will have a pretty decent offense.
Rating: 55
 

Pitching

The Cubs starting pitching is easily the strongest in the division, perhaps in all the National League.  Opening Day starter Jon Lieber has turned out to be one of the biggest trade steals in recent memory: the Cubs acquired him 3 years ago from the Pirates for Brant Brown.  Since then, he's won 42 games for the Cubs and given them nearly 700 innings of quality work on the mound.  However, he's not even third best on the staff when it comes to pure talent.

That distinction belongs to Juan Cruz, who's a young power pitcher on the rise.  He still has control troubles, but his mid-90s fastball, hard-breaking slider and above average change make him very tough to hit.  Just a notch ahead of him is newly acquired Matt Clement, who has so much movement on his pitches that it's hard to throw them for strikes even when he aims at the middle of the plate.  His problem has been finding a consistent release point.  Once he and pitching coach Larry Rothchild figure out how to do that, all those years of being compared to Kevin Brown will be validated.

The Cubs' top dog is Kerry Wood.  He missed a year due to arm surgery yet he'll still have over 600 major league strikeouts before his 25th birthday.  With a fastball that hits 97-98 regularly and a curve that's rated as one of the best in baseball, he can make even the best hitters look impotent when he's on.  He also has a pretty good slider, a developing cutter and a fosh just to keep hitters guessing.  His curve and slider put so much torque on his elbow that there are some concerns about whether he can stay healthy for a full season.  If he can, the amazing things we've seen from Randy Johnson the past few years may become routine for Wood.  Last year, he averaged 11.2 Ks per 9 innings and led the majors by hold batters to a .202 batting average and finished second behind Johnson in opponent slugging percentage - .315 to .309.

Rejuvenated Jason Bere is also in the Cubs rotation.  When he came up with the White Sox in 1993, he was projected to be one of the ALs dominating right-handers for the next decade.  However, injuries derailed his career and it wasn't until a roller coaster 2000 season in Milwaukee that he showed real signs of recovery.  The Cubs snatched him up that offseason and he rewarded them with a solid, occasionally brilliant 2001 campaign.

Perhaps the most intriguing starter isn't even with the major league club right now.  Mark Prior was drafted 2nd overall last year and was assigned to AA to begin this season.  Touted as one of, if not the best pitching prospect to ever come out of college, Prior should force his way into the rotation no later than June.  If his spring and first start are any indicators, he may not wait past the end of April - 15 innings pitched, 16 hits allowed, 7 walks, 26 strikeouts.  Considering he's being compared favorably to the likes of Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina and Randy Johnson, there's every reason to be optimistic about the Cubs rotation.

If that weren't enough, the Cubs have several more quality arms waiting in the high minors - Will Ohman, Ben Christensen, Jose Cueto, Alan Benes (who's rehab looks encouraging), Ben Ford, Chris Gissell and Winston Abreu.  No team can match the depth and quality of starting pitching talent the Cubs have available to them this year.

The bullpen isn't nearly as intimidating, but has some quality nonetheless.  Antonio Alfonseca will close for the team until they find a more suitable solution.  Kyle Farnsworth seems like a logical successor, with his overpowering performance as a set-up man last year.  But he's had two chances to assume the closer's role - at the end of the 2000 season and in spring training this year - and has been ineffective both times.  Jeff Fassero closed some last year, but there aren't too many more pitches in his 39-year old arm.  Hard throwing Carlos Zambrano is a possibility, but along with his great fastball, he brings some control problems: as a reliever, he's averaged almost six and a half walks per 9 innings for his career.  Donovan Osborne has made a dramatic comeback from being out of baseball to fill in as the Cubs second lefty out of the pen.

The Cubs will go as far as their young starting pitching can take them.  In the long run, that will probably be at least a half dozen division titles.  This year, depending on how manager Don Baylor handles them, they could start that run.  Or they could finish comfortably in third.
Rating: 60 (potentially 75)
 

Defense

The Cubs should field a very solid team defensively.  Gonzales is a good gloveman at short and Patterson should emerge as a good defensive centerfielder.  DeShields and Hill have good range but have occasional struggles with consistency.  Girardi and Machado are both solid behind the plate; Hundley is a stolen base waiting to happen.  Mueller and McGriff are sure-handed and at least average range-wise.  Sosa plays good defense in right, especially since he no longer feels the need to show of his arm.  Alou is not good in the field, but the Cubs can always make a late inning replacement with Lewis, who's a superb defender.  
Rating: 55
 

Management

There was a time when the Cubs front office was content being the lovable losers of the NL.  Not anymore. GM Andy McPhail has done a very good job of replenishing a farm system that 10 years ago was as barren as Death Valley.  Now the Cubs have a farm that is the envy of baseball.  McPail has done a pretty good job of trading and signing talent without overspending, despite having an enormous budget.  He's just proving that the solid job he did with the Twins in the late 80s and early 90s was no fluke.  Now if he could just fix the manager.  It's not that Don Baylor is not a good manager.  He might very well be.  However, this situation is probably not the best for a man with his skills.  For example, he led the national league in playing small ball - bunts, hit and runs, etc - when he was the manager of the Colorado Rockies, who play in a field where not swinging for the fences should be a felony.  Old habits die hard: the Cubs were 6th in slugging percentage last year, yet led the majors by a substantial margin in attempting sacrifice bunts.  And while the Cubs did suffer some injuries last year, there was absolutely no reason for Baylor to use 140 different line-ups, other than to boost his own need to feel like he was managing.  Perhaps there is some offensively-deprived team that could use Baylor's constant finagling to it's advantage... but the Cubs aren't it.
Rating: 55 - what McPhail (65) hath built, Baylor (40) can tear asunder