Arizona Diamondbacks
 

It's an amazing feat: just 4 short years after coming into existence, the Arizona Diamondbacks won the World Series.  Someone asked me recently, "is that all there is to it?  Just get 2 good starters and one power hitter and you win?"  Well, not exactly.  It had to be those two starters and the Arizona offense last year was much more than the career year of Luis Gonzales.  So can they do it again?  Maybe.  But it will be much tougher to get to October in 2002.
 

Hitting

While Luis Gonzales' year certainly contributed to the Diamondback's success, it was not the only reason the D-backs finished 3rd in the NL in runs scored.  Unquestionably, some of the credit goes to a ballpark that inflated run scoring by 17% last year.  But that is not why Luis Gonzales hit 57 homers.  Most people are grasping at straws as to why there was such a home run outburst from so many unlikely sources last year.

One answer could be performance-enhancing supplements and drugs. Another could be that because the umps were calling the high strike, more pitchers were trying to use it that shouldn't.  The high fastball is a dangerous pitch in that few batters can really catch up to it, but high fastballs are easier to hit for homers than ones down in the zone.  So if the fastball is not up enough or it's not a particularly fast fastball, it can be hit a long way.  It could be that guys like Bonds, Gonzales, etc. are just really good high fastball hitters.  Or not.

Anyway, Gonzales is a very good hitter, but highly unlikely to ever come close to last year's production.  For one, there's simply nothing in his record to indicate that last year was anything more than a historic fluke.  And secondly, many umps stopped calling the high strike, so fewer pitchers will try to get him out up in the zone.  But a 30-homer, 100 RBI season is still very good.

Returning to the outfield with Gonzales is Steve Finley.  Injuries are becoming more of a concern for the 37-year old Finley.  But he's still a capable and productive hitter.  While his days of hitting 30 homers a season are past, his second half resurgence showed a strong eye at the plate and a good contact ratio.  He's not done yet.

Joining FInley and Gonzales will be some combination of Erubial Durazo, Danny Bautista and Jose Guillen.  Durazo is clearly the best hitter of the 3 and if he ever gets 500 at bats in a season, he'll be an All-Star.  However, he begins the season on the DL with a broken bone in his wrist that could sideline him until June.  Wrist and hand injuries often rob hitters of power so we may not see his true level of ability until next year.  In the meantime, Bautista will make a solid replacement.  He makes contact and has double digit home run power and steals speed.  Guillen had a great spring, but has a history of great springs and precipitous falls once the regular season begins.

The infield will be cobbled together due to injuries and age.  Matt Williams will be out half the season with yet another foot injury.  Some combination of Craig Counsel, Junior Spivey, Jay Bell and Greg Colbrunn will man third base, but none of them will even be average producers for the position.

Tony Womack hopes to bounce back from a year marred by personal tragedy.  If his second half is any indicator, he could be a nice sleeper: after the All-Star break he hit .327 with an on base of .370 and slugging percentage a respectable (for a shortstop)  .415.  His keystone partner at second will be one of the aforementioned third base replacements, depending on Bob Brenly's mood that day, I suppose.

Mark Grace will be back at first and provide a solid anchor for the infield.  While he's never been one of the better producers at first base, he's a consistently tough out who can put the ball over the wall on occasion.  However, the time is coming when solid defense and a good clubhouse guy won't be enough to keep him in the line-up regularly: Durazo's best position is first base and he will eventually be there.

The D-backs are blessed with several decent options behind the plate.  Damian Miller has been viewed as a defensive specialist but over the last few years, he's really worked at becoming a better hitter.  This year, that hard work should pay off with some recognition as he looks primed for a 15-20 homer year and a batting average in the high .270s/low.280s.  Rod Barajas, his primary back-up, has good power.  And down on the farm, Brad Cresse and his potent bat are making their way to the bigs.

The D-back starters have talent but they also have lots of age, so injuries could be a major factor.  While their bench is deep with quality reserves, those reserves aren't good enough to play everyday should more of the regulars go down for an extended period.  In short, if the D-backs stay healthy, they will compete for the division.  But that may be a big if.
Rating: 60
 

Pitching

Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling.  Not just two good pitchers.  It had to be those two pitchers for the Diamondbacks to get through the playoffs and win the World Series against the Yanks.  No other pitchers had their power repertoire and had thrown as many pitches per start over the past two years than those two.  The D-backs had to have two pitchers who could dominate an opponent with power and could do it for 140 pitches an outing and come back three or four days later and do it again.  Playoff teams make pitchers throw lots of pitches.  Playoff teams also hit junkballers.   The only way to hide a thin bullpen and a suspect rotation is to have two uber-horses like Johnson and Schilling take the ball at every opportunity.  And that's exactly what they did.

Johnson is about the most amazing strikeout pitcher I've ever seen.  In a major league career that currently spans just over 14-years, he will pass Walter Johnson's strikeout total that took 21 years to establish.  Nolan Ryan took 17 years to pass it.  At Johnson's age, Ryan was striking out an average of about 190 batters a season.  Johnson has averaged over 350 a season for the last 4 years.  So at age 38, how much longer can Johnson keep this up?  Who knows.  He may end up like Ryan or Satchel Paige, pitching effectively and striking out hitters until he's 46 or 47.  In which case he could finish with more than 5000 strikeouts and 300 wins.  At this point, there's no reason to doubt that he can.

Schilling's record isn't as impressive (but then again, who's is?), but he's a stellar pitcher in his own right.  Injuries have prevented him from fully realizing his career potential, but he still has some impressive notes on his resume: two 300-K seasons, missing a third last year by 7 strikeouts, and 4 times leading the league in complete games.  And a World Series MVP, which he shared with Johnson.  When he's healthy, Schilling is one of the top pitchers in the NL.

After the big two, however, the D-backs have serious questions.  Rick Helling was brought in to give them some quality as a third starter after a deal with David Wells fell through.  But Helling is no David Wells.  Sure, he was the ace of the Rangers staff last year.  But the distinction of being the "best" starter on a staff with an ERA of 5.71, the worst team ERA since the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, who went 20-134, is not exactly the kind of thing you put on a resume.  Worse still, Helling, who has been the major league leader in home runs surrendered in 2 of the last 3 years will be moving to a park that is even more homer friendly.  This does not bode well for a pitcher with a middling straight fastball and a career ERA near 5.

Todd Stottlemyre is trying to come back from so many arm problems that he's been sought out by Dr. Richard Kimball.  It's highly doubtful he'll pitch regularly, much less effectively this season.  He'll be competing with lefty Brian Anderson and right-hander Miguel Batista for starts.  Anderson has been the darling of the analyst set for many years, largely due to his fine strikeout-to-walk ratio.  The problem is that when he throws the ball in the strikezone, it usually gets hit, and hit hard.  Batista was close to brilliant down the stretch and in the last year's post-season.  His strand rate was a little high, which should mean we'll see a slight rise in his ERA, but he should still be a decent bottom of the rotation alternative.

The bullpen is a largely veteran crew which will get better as the season progresses.  Closer Byung-hyun Kim got slapped around pretty badly in the World Series and there were some concerns that the emotional scarring of such dramatic losses might affect him long term.  However, early season indications are that he will use last year's failures as motivation to strike out every hitter he faces.  So far, he's come close, striking out nearly 2 batters an inning.  Bret Prinz, Mike Myers, Greg Swindell and Mike Morgan will tend to the middle to late innings.  However, with such gaping holes in the bottom of the rotation, the D-backs may need a half a dozen more relievers.  Some help is coming when Matt Mantei returns from surgery in June and possibly resumes his role as the team's closer.  But with Morgan and Swindell pushing retirement, there's no way this bullpen will last without some serious help in the bottom of the rotation.  That help might come from the farm in the form of lefties Chris Capuano or Mike Gosling.  But there's not much else on the farm to hold out hope for.

While it plays well in the post-season, three brilliant pitchers can not make up for 8-10 mediocre/bad ones over the course of a full season.  Even if Johnson and Schilling were to win every start, they'd only have 70 wins.  The D-backs may need that many from the big two.
Rating: 55
 

Defense

The quality in the D-backs D comes from their older players.  Matt Williams was a gold glove quality third baseman, but injuries and age have limited his range.  Steve Finley is still one of the better centerfielders in the game, but age may be catching up to him too.  Mark Grace is the reputed best gloveman at first in baseball, although you'd get an argument from JT Snow and Doug Mientkiewicz boosters.  Damian Miller is a fine catcher in all aspects of the game: calling a game, blocking the plate, stopping the running game.  While none of the other players are above average defensively, they are generally sure-handed and make few mental mistakes.  This is a big advantage in the playoffs and in pressure games as the D-backs simply don't beat themselves.
Rating: 55
 

Management

GM Joe Garagiola should be praised for winning a World Series, especially in an age when the Yankees have so many advantages.  But at what expense?  The D-backs farm system is practically barren, while players that were supposed to be their future - Vicente Padilla and Brad Penny are the most obvious - are beginning terrific careers in other cities.  Still, he has a championship and many of the significant pieces were brought to Arizona in trade.  However, now he has the oldest team in the majors and no farm system and no room to add salary in trade.  He's basically in the same position the Padres were in after their 1998 run to the World Series.  The Pads decided that trading a year too early to get the maximum return in trade was better than waiting a year too late.  If the D-backs don't make it back to the playoffs, Garagiola may have waited a year too late.  Bob Brenly got a lot of credit for managing the team to the championship, but what exactly did he do?  Buck Showalter designed and built this team.  How tough is it to pencil in Johnson and Schilling every start you can squeeze out of them and hope for the best with the rest of the staff?  About the only thing notable he did was bad-mouth the Padres for trying to win a game in which Schilling had not allowed a baserunner.  And for that, he's some great manager?  I don't think so.
Rating: 40