Winter Meetings Wrap-up
December 8, 2005
This year's winter meetings have been about as active and exciting as I
can
remember. There has been so much activity that I've had to put
off my other work in order to keep up. What's happening now - all
this trading - is what everyone expects at the mid-season trading
deadline but never happens. The baseball landscape is literally
changing by the minute. So without further ado, here's what's
happened since yesterday:
Atlanta traded their starting catcher, Johnny Estrada, to the
Diamondbacks for relievers Lance Cormier and Oscar
Villarreal. The move opens the door for Brian McCann to start
behind the plate, as well as affording Jarrod Saltimacchia, who was
impressive in the Arizona Fall League, to start positioning himself for
a spot on the roster. Cormier and Villarreal bolster the Braves
weak bullpen. Estrada gives the Diamondbacks a solid backstop,
allowing Chris Snyder another year to develop. It's somewhat
common for players to begin realizing their full offensive potential
after 1200-1500 at bats, so combined with moving to a friendlier
ballpark and his improving eye at the plate this could be a breakout
year in
the power department for Estrada.
Speaking of the Braves, they still don't have a closer. They
traded their supposed closer from last year, Danny Kolb, to the
Brewers for Wes Obermueller. I'm still trying to
figure out what this means in the Braves' scheme. Is it a signal
that Smoltz will be moved back to closer? Maybe Jorge Sosa will
be given a shot. I have my doubts they will sign Braden Looper,
especially since they've seen him so much. Maybe Schuerholz is
stockpiling arms
to make a trade for a potential closer, or maybe he hopes to have found
his guy from either Cormier or Villarreal. What it means for Kolb
is that he won't be getting any more chances to close anytime
soon.
Speaking of closers, Bob Wickman re-signed with Cleveland and Trevor
Hoffman re-signed with San Diego. The Wickman signing buys the
Indians a year to groom Fernando Cabrera for the job in 2007. If
he shows he's ready sooner, they could deal Wickman at the trade
deadline for
other help. Losing Hoffman wouldn't have been the worst thing
that could have happened to the Padres, but the signing does make the
bullpen stronger and it would have been a shame (from a PR standpoint)
for the Padres' most
popular pitcher to finish his illustrious career in another
uniform. That said, from a performance standpoint, I'm not
convinced Hoffman will be worth a second year. He was showing
some cracks
in the armor last year - in April, June and August he posted ERAs over
5.00 and lefties hit nearly .300 against him - so the end is growing
near for the potential Hall of Famer.
The Padres also traded Mark Loretta to the Red Sox for catcher Doug
Mirabelli. What is it with Kevin Towers
and crappy catchers? He doled out bloated multi-year contracts to
Carlos Hernandez and Wiki Gonzales, once traded real major league
players for the
likes of Tom Lampkin and actually used Gary Bennett as the team's
primary catcher for a full season. He had a great catcher in
Ramon Hernandez, but when it came time to choose between an aging
closer and a studly catcher in his peak years, he opted for the old
guy.
I guess my question is which is a greater PR hit: letting a team icon
go when he's past his prime or tumbling out of contention in the
easiest division in baseball? Anyway, this left him with Miguel
Olivo and David Ross as his catchers for
2006. Olivo has some talent, but still hasn't shown the kind of
discipline at the plate to help offensively over the long haul.
So Towers gave up an All-Star second baseman for some other team's
back-up
catcher. Except for two years - 2001 and 2004 - Mirabelli has
been dreck offensively. Once again, Towers grossly overpaid for
his catching. On the plus side, at least he didn't deal Adam
Eaton (a potential #1A starter) to Texas for Gerald Laird
(another
back-up) as rumored. Josh Barfield is a possibility to
replace Loretta, as is Eric Young, Geoff Blum and Bobby Hill. Of
those, only Barfield has the talent to replace Loretta but that may be
a bit much to ask of a rookie.
Speaking of Ramon Hernandez, he signed on with the Orioles. The
Baltimore pitching will improve dramatically next year and not because
they now have Leo Mazzone. It's because Javy Lopez will no longer
be behind the plate. He is one of the most predictable catchers
in the game, which isn't a good thing. He routinely cost his
pitchers 10-15 pitchers per outing with poor pitch selection.
That's 10-15 more
opportunities for the opposition to get lucky with a bloop or, when his
pitcher makes a mistake, a blast. Hernandez is a very
smart catcher who calls a very solid game. He's also a great
fielder. The starters will be
more efficient, keeping them longer in the games, which will also keep
the bullpen rested. On the offensive side, Hernandez should have
a big year as he moves to a park that favors right-handed power
hitters.
Mark Redman was traded from the Pirates to the Royals for Jonah
Bayliss. Redman will help the Royals in that he will come close
to 200 innings, but other than that there is very little here to get
excited about from either perspective. Also rather unexciting is
the Royals' signing of Elmer Dessens for two years. If the season
began today the Royals' rotation would be Runelvys Hernandez, Mark
Redman, Elmer Dessens, Zack Greinke and Bobby Madritsch (or Denny
Bautista). It's probably just me but that doesn't look like
enough to push out of the AL Central cellar. Granted, it's hard
to sign quality free agents when your team stinks because no one wants
to join a loser. But when the team deals away it's best player
for crummy prospects, a stinky team is usually the product. In
order for the Royals to break out of their funk, they are going to have
to draft, sign and develop good players and then accept the fact that
they will have to endure some truly terrible years of letting the kids
play in order to get better. Cheap free agents and quick fix
managers aren't going to get the job done.
The Royals did make at least one good move, trading their first round
Rule 5 pick, Fabio Castro, for Esteban German, who will take over
second base at least until Buddy Bell finds an unproductive veteran to
play there. German has scads of speed and good on base skills,
enough that if Bell leaves
him alone he can snag 30 bases this year.
For the second year in a row, the Tigers have thrown lots of money for
a closer on the decline. Troy Percival was supposed to hold on to
the job through 2006, but he didn't even last the first half of the
season before an injury sidelined him. Signing Todd Jones this
winter probably isn't any better, but it will buy some more time
(expensively) for the team to figure out if they have a future closer
in Franklin German, Fernando Rodney or Craig Dingman. Again, I'm
not sure I get this need for an old guy to be the team closer.
Jones is 37 and had posted ERAs of 4.70, 7.08 and 4.15 before last
season. Now the Tigers are giving him two years and $11 million,
despite having two guys - Rodney and Dingman - who did a pretty good
job of closing out games down the stretch. Couldn't that $11
million have been better spent trying to attract a quality starter like
Millwood? Instead, they gave Kenny Rogers $16 million over two
years. That's a lot of money for a 41-year old starter who had an
ERA of 4.72 in the second half last year. Seems to me that it
would have been wiser to go hard after the 31-year old guy who led the
AL in ERA last year and pay the $11-$12 million a year he wants and
take a chance with the inexperienced troika of closer candidates
already in the fold than to dole out $13.5 million for two guys who
aren't very strong bets to be worth what they're being paid this year,
much less a second year.
Quite possibly the biggest trade this offseason has Alfonso Soriano
moving to Washington in exchange for Brad Wilkerson, Terrmel
Sledge and Armando Galarraga. This could end up being a great
trade for both
teams. On the Nationals side, Soriano's home run production will
take a hit from the switch in ballparks so he might not hit 30
homers. But he still has enough pop that his power will still
produce some nice numbers. This also allows the team to play Ryan
Church in
center and use Marlon Byrd as their fourth outfielder. And if
Cristian Guzman fails to produce at short again, the Nats
can always toy with the idea of moving Soriano back to the position he
played in the minors, shortstop. OK, maybe not. On the Ranger's
side, Wilkerson
gives them a dependable outfielder at three positions although I don't
think the
change will suddenly boost his home run total back over 30. That
was probably a one-year deal. But something in the low- to
mid-20s
is reasonable. More importantly, it allows the Rangers to explore
trading either Kevin Mench, who has been frequently mentioned in trade
rumors, and/or Laynce Nix for pitching. Terrmel Sledge might even
get a
chance to prove he's more than a fourth outfielder, although I'm not
optimistic he can. Galarraga has some potential but is at least a
couple years away.
The Cardinals traded disgruntled lefty specialist Ray King to the
Rockies for Larry Bigbie and Aaron Miles. This could be a bit of
a coup
for the Cardinals if either Bigbie or Miles finally develop into
everyday players. Miles posted some strong seasons in the
high minors before moving to Colorado. Inexplicably, his
production fell off in the thin air to the point where he was benched
last year. Bigbie showed some promise in Baltimore in 2003 and
2004, but failed to build on it last year.
The Brewers traded Lyle Overbay to the Blue Jays for David Bush, Gabe
Gross and a prospect. Maybe I'm crazy, but I just don't see why
so many people are so high on Lyle Overbay. Don't get me wrong,
he's
a decent offensive player. But basically he's Mark Grace without
the defense and at 29 years old, he's not likely to get any
better especially switching leagues. David Bush should fit in
nicely behind Sheets and Capuano. Gross will start the season as
the team's fourth outfielder but will have to learn to hit lefties much
better (.091 last year) if he hopes to eventually claim a starting
role. Regardless, giving up a good young #3 starter like Bush and
a potential
outfield
regular like Gross for Overbay just doesn't make sense to me.
It makes me wonder a little about what the Blue Jays are trying to do
this
year. While the Ryan and Burnett signings have some upside, they
are both
rather risky in that neither guy has a track record. Overbay
doesn't
add all that much to the team's offense and just cost the team their
depth in the rotation. Burnett has to stay healthy for these
moves to work out.
The Braves traded uber-thirdbase prospect Andy Marte for Edgar
Renteria. This is a bit of a curious move for both parties
because the
Braves already had Wilson Betimit ready to step in at short, and the
Red Sox already had Kevin Youkilis and had just traded for Mike Lowell
at third. Marte has nothing left to prove in the minors so
another year in Triple-A would be a waste. My guess is that
Lowell will now be spun to the Twins or Pirates in
exchange for a reliever. But what to do with Youkilis?
First base is a possibility but Boston always seems to find a way to
have a preponderance of first basemen. Another question is what
do the Sox now do at short? With Hanley Ramirez traded away, Alex
Cora probably gets the first shot but will he hit enough to keep the
job? Considering Boston was happy with Pokey Reese there in 2004
when he only hit .221, offense doesn't seem like a high
priority.
As long as Cora's glove remains solid, the job will be his unless
another deal comes along. I don't expect Nomar to be re-signed
for a bittersweet homecoming.
The White Sox traded Damaso Marte to the Pirates for Rob
Mackowiak. Mackowiak will serve primarily as Crede's insurance
policy in case his back problems worsen. Beyond that, he'll be
the team's super utility player. Moving to the AL should assure
that he'll get close to as many at bats as he had last year.
Getting Marte allows the Pirates to give the closer's job to Mike
Gonzales without worrying about losing a quality lefty set-up
man. It also allows them to package more of their depth of
left-handed pitchers for an upgrade at third base. No doubt the
Red Sox will be in touch.
The Rockies acquired Yorvit Torrealba for Marcos Carvajal and signed
Jose Mesa to close for them. Torrealba's quality defense
immediately makes him the favorite to win the starter's job at catcher,
as his bat is an upgrade, however slight, over incumbent Danny
Ardoin. Even though Brian Fuentes had no troubles with closing,
it's not uncommon for a team like the Rockies to be reluctant to use a
lefty as their closer because
left-handers who can get both lefties and righties out are considered
rare. They prefer instead to use a right-hander to close and
keep the lefty available for tough left-handers. Look, I don't
make up their rules, I just report them. If I were the GM or
manager I would just use my best reliever whenever the situation called
for it and if my best guy was a lefty, then he'd be my closer.
Maybe that's why I'm not a GM or a manager. Anyway...
While waiting to see if they could get Kevin Millwood, the Mariners
re-upped Jamie Moyer for $5.5 million. I know he's a popular
player in Seattle and he had a bit of a rebound year last year, but I'm
not optimistic this one will have a happy ending. Moyer was
10-0 with a 2.95 (1.18 WHIP) ERA last year at Safeco. Away
from Seattle, he was 3-7 with a 6.11 ERA (1.67 WHIP). Given his
2004 season, the home numbers are the ones
that seem fluky and given that he's 42 years old, that money would have
probably been better spent on a signing bonus or an extra year for
Millwood, Matt Morris or Jeff Weaver.
A couple of bench signings to report - John Mabry signs with the Cubs,
and Jose Valentin and Julio Franco signed with the Mets. Mabry
can sub in the corner positions and will provide a little power as a
pinch hitter. Valentin provides infield insurance. Franco
will serve as the team's primary pinch hitter.
A Bit of Speculation
Several rumors tie Mike Piazza with the Twins. That's really an
ideal fit for both sides. The Twins would get a power-hitting DH
and back-up catcher. More importantly, Piazza could mentor Joe
Mauer on
the
aspects of his game that he excels at - handling pitchers and
hitting. Piazza would enjoy his first non-pitcher's park of his
career. Given 450-500 at bats as a DH in that park, he could end
up with 25 homers easy and begin an Edgar Martinez-type second career
in the
AL.
Frank Thomas is still on the market and the team that should sign him,
or at least the team that would benefit most is the Mariners. The
A's
are
the team rumored to have the most interest and after not offering
arbitration to Erubial Durazo and Scott Hatteberg, they have a spot
open. But the Mariners have a long history with stud
right-handed DHs and Frank Thomas fits that bill. He gets on
base,
hits home runs and playing on Safeco's grass and in a division without
turf should help keep him healthy. The Mariners are just one
solid starter away from having a competitive rotation. They'll
need Piniero to get straightened out and Meche to stay relatively
healthy, but with Felix Hernandez at the top of the
rotation,
a
solid bullpen headed up by Guardado and the return of Rafael Soriano, a
line-up that features Ichiro, Sexson, Thomas, Johjima and Beltre
with some pretty good young players in Jeremy Reed and Jose
Lopez could make the AL West pretty interesting.
Sure there are still some holes to fill, but that could be a pretty
exciting team. Unfortunately, the M's are rumored to be pursuing
Carl Everett as their primary DH. While he offers some position
versatility and is a switch hitter, his record of performance after
getting a new contract is not re-assuring. An incentive laden
one-year deal is about the only way to go with him.
I'm going to be taking a break from writing here for a little while but
that doesn't mean I'm not writing. I hope to have a publication
announcement by Christmas, so until then, Happy Holidays.