Free Agent Frenzy
December 1, 2005
Before we get started with this week's free agent signings, I'd like to
gently remind everyone that the next time baseball's team owners start
making noises about how overpaid the players are and grumbling that the
game can't continue with these salaries spiraling out of control that
no one held a gun to their heads when they were signing middle
relievers for $4 to $6 million a year.
OK, enough soapboxing.
The A's signed Esteban Loaiza for three years. I've learned to
give Billy Beane the benefit of the doubt because just about everything
he's done the last few years, even when it hasn't made sense, has
seemed to work out. For example, trading for Jay Payton last year
when he already had a abundance of right-handed outfielders. But
this one might be a big mis-step. Loaiza has never been one who
could be described as overly motivated, especially when he's not
playing for a new contract. Giving him three years seems like a
recipe for 450-500 innings of very mediocre performance. Another
concern here is that Loaiza had a huge road split. At RFK last
year, he had a very studly 2.86 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Away from
those friendly confines, his ERA was 4.71 and WHIP was 1.52, very
similar numbers to what he had posted in the AL the previous
year. If the A's are thinking they can trade Zito and replace him
with Loaiza, they are sadly mistaken. Anything beyond 4th or 5th
starter seems overly optimistic.
The Mets finally got their closer when they signed Billy Wagner for
more money than I can count. Some worry about whether Wagner will
be intimidated by the big city because of his bucolic background.
In a word, no. This is a guy who took a liner off the noggin a
few
years ago and came back two weeks later to close again. If
anything
undoes Wagner in New York it would be the nightlife, not the
pressure. Regardless, he's so mentally tough I doubt any external
factor will affect his performance. If you're looking for a
closer who is going to put up ridiculously good numbers, Wagner is your
guy. Next year will be the first since 1999 in which he pitched
his home games in a pitcher's park. His numbers that year: 4-1,
39 saves, 1.57 ERA, 0.78 WHIP with 124 Ks in 74.2 innings. He
probably won't be reliving his uber-K days, but it's very likely we'll
see the other numbers.
With the loss of Wagner, the Phillies countered by signing Tom Gordon
for three years. In the past I've been a bit of a fan of Pat
Gillick, but his moves this winter have me scratching my head.
First he deals Thome for a player he already has (Rowand to "replace"
Michaels"), then he signs Abraham Nunez to share third base with David
Bell and then he follows that up with signing a 38-year old reliever
for three years. I think Gordon will be a decent option to close
this year: he has increasingly become groundball friendly and there
isn't anything in last year's numbers to indicate that he's over the
hill. But will that be true when Gordon is 40 yet still has
another year on his contract? Risky. Signing Nunez to
platoon with Bell is puzzling to say the least. Bell struggled to
hit right-handers last year so why did the Phillies sign a guy with a
career
.646 OPS versus right-handers to get the majority of at bats at
a corner (read: power) position? Even last year, his OPS was
better against lefties (.789)
and his success against right-handers wasn't that much better (.685)
than his career numbers. Maybe it's the water.
The White Sox retained the services of their first baseman, Paul
Konerko. If Thome is healthy, the Pale Hose will be a better
offensive team than they were last year. He gets on base more
than last year's DH Carl Everett and his left-handed power bat makes
the line-up a bit more of a match-up problem. After several years
of learning on the job, Kenny Williams seems to be developing into a
pretty good GM.
Although the move has been hailed as a smart signing by the Padres, I'm
not totally convinced bringing back Brian Giles was the right
move. Ben Johnson needs to be given a chance to play after
putting some pretty strong numbers in Triple-A: .312/.394/.558 with 25
homers and 83 RBI in 414 ABs. More importantly, his BB/K rate
improved dramatically from 55/136 in 2004 to 51/88 last year despite
advancing a level. It's true that Giles' road numbers were much
better last year (.333/.463/.545) than home (.267/..378/.417) but that
doesn't really help the Padres for 81 of their 162 games. If
anything, that makes him more valuable in trade than in play. The
year before he didn't have any significant split so maybe last year's
split is a sign of an overall rebound. But that's a big "if"
to pay $30 million for. And for a 35-year old player whose
primary value is his old player skills (drawing walks), there were
probably better ways to spend that kind of money. In the Padres'
defense, they need guys like Giles who get on base and only Klesko and
Loretta currently fit that bill for them. Still, they've already
made one mistake with Giles (trading Jason Bay and Oliver Perez to get
him); I'd hate to think they compounded the mistake with another
one.
Tim Worrell re-upped with the Giants for two years at $4 million
apiece. He showed some cracks in the armor last year, but SBC
ballpark should quick-fix those. And he'll be good closer
insurance in case Benitez goes down. And there's no question the
Giants needed more quality depth in their bullpen. I guess I just
balk at giving a set-up man that kind of money, especially with how
commonly good one-year relief can be found in the minors or off the
scrap heap. Leo Mazzone has built his reputation almost entirely
on his ability to do that and a number of teams have had great success
going with the hot hand. The Padres picked up Scott Linebrink off
waivers, the Marlins got Todd Jones for a little over $1 million, the
Brewers got Turnbow for major league minimum, both the Cubs and Reds
paid $2 million or less for their closers last year... the list goes
on. So a $4 million set-up guy for a team that qualifies
for an AARP group discount seems like a misallocation of funds.
One other signing that got a tiny bit of ink was the Cardinals signing
Dennis Tankersley. Once a very promising starting prospect,
Tankersley hasn't showed the maturity necessary to make it in the
bigs. Dave Duncan has done wonders with non-young pitchers who
have had a history of underachieving, so maybe he can wake up his new
pupil. But he's going to have to restore Tankersley's confidence
in his other pitches because hitters simply lay-off his superb slider
and wait for the 2-0 fastball. If he makes the team out of
spring, it means that Duncan is finally getting through. That
could mean nice mid-season sleeper. Otherwise, don't hold your
breath.
The one trade that took place this week could potentially be a
blockbuster for both teams. The Twins traded Travis Bowyer and Scott
Tyler to the Marlins for Luis Castillo. Castillo not only gives
the Twins a capable #2 hitter, but he also gives them excellent defense
at second base and a infield ballast for Jason Bartlett at short.
With healthy seasons from Torii Hunter, Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer and
Justin Morneau, the Twins offense will be scads better than last year's
model, plenty enough to close the gap between them and the White
Sox.
From the Marlins point of view they got their next closer. Bowyer
dominated Triple-A, but struggled in the Arizona Fall League. I
saw him a couple times in Arizona and his velocity (94-97 with his
fastball) was just fine. The reason he got hit so hard was due
entirely to him tipping his pitches. When he threw his fastball,
his delivery came straight over the top. When he threw his
slider, his arm angle was close to 11 o'clock. Hitters watched
his hand as it passed his head and recognized what was coming; they
simply
laid off his slider and pounced on the fastball. A very simple
correction to his mechanics will fix that, probably something the
Marlins' scouts noted. He'll likely start as the set-up man, but
he should be getting most of their saves by 2007.