Let the Madness Begin
November 26, 2005
I apologize for not writing here in a while. It's not that I
haven't been writing - quite the opposite, actually. For the past
couple of weeks, I've been writing player profiles for The Fantasy
Baseball Guide - Professional Edition. It'll be available in
mid-January. In the meantime, quite a bit has happened in
baseball, so let's get to it.
Perhaps the biggest story so far this offseason is baseball's new
Congressionally-inspired steroid policy. But to be honest, it's
really not much of a policy in that there were really only two changes:
the punishment for getting caught was increased and the new agreement
includes a ban on amphetamines. The first part isn't really much
of a deterrent. When Rafael Palmeiro got caught, it cost him not
only fan support, but he also lost the faith in the media which could
cost him his shot at the Hall of Fame. It also cost him in the
eyes of front offices. Who cares if the guy can still hit? Few,
if any teams are going to take the PR hit by signing such a lightning
rod of controversy. So banning a player for 50 games for his
first offense isn't much of an increase over what Palmeiro has already
experienced. Yes, it might deter fringe players, but the biggest
concern
about steroid use, at least what has been offered as the primary
motivation behind the agreement, is the protection of the
sanctity of the
records. In that regard, fringe players aren't the threat; star
players
are. The problem is that star players have the wherewithal to get
around the
current testing program easily if they so choose. The failure of
the new policy is both in terms of
frequency and the technology. The testing program is still so
anemic that any player who gets caught is either careless, stupid or
both. If they decide to institute random testing 20 times a
year, offseason included, and start seriously investing in testing
technology, then we can talk about an effective steroids policy.
Until then, the policy is just window dressing. In a decade,
however, the point will probably be moot as gene therapy and smart
clothing make their way into the
game. At that point, steroids will be a laughably primitive form
of performance enhancement
OK, on to the fun parts of the game.
In Texas, pitching coach Orel
Hershiser
was promoted into the front office. He has been given much of
the credit for the
development of the Ranger's young pitching, so the Rangers will now
turn to bullpen coach Mark Connor to continue the education of Chris
Young, Kameron Loe, Juan
Dominguez and a burgeoning stable of quality young arms. Connor
has been with manager Buck Showalter for ten years and is highly
regarded enough that the Braves asked for permission to interview him
after they let apotheosized pitching coach Leo Mazzone walk.
There's a part of me that's disappointed that Kim Ng didn't get the GM
job in LA, another part that is glad. Ned Coletti is a very good
pick
for the Dodger's job given how well he did with Brian Sabean in San
Francisco. But Kim deserves a shot. One day she and other
women will
get a chance to show what they can do, and I suspect, like Jackie
Robinson and the first African-American players who re-integrated
baseball, they will do brilliant work. The first ones to break
any
barrier have to be exceptional at their job, otherwise they risk
leaving a stigma. Any woman who is smart and savvy enough to be
seriously
considered for the GM job in a market as significant as LA will get a
GM's job sooner or later and I bet she'll do an amazingly good
job. So
why am I glad she didn't get the job? Because she would have made
the
Dodgers a powerhouse in the NL West, and quite frankly, they have
enough of an advantage already.
Speaking of GMs, it's not exactly surprising that there have been a
number of trades
consummated this winter. There are relatively few high
profile free agents and the Marlins are having their
usual post-playoff fire sale (albeit a year late) to show the people of
South Florida that they indeed can't (or won't) compete without a new
baseball-only stadium. No, it's no surprise plenty of trades are
both rumored and completed. As for the Marlins' latest
meltdown, their problem is that they keep getting
decent enough prospects in these dump deals so that in three of four
years they'll be fighting for a spot in the playoffs again. They
can't help but remain competitive despite the fact that they have the
perfect owner for ruining franchises. Anyway...
The first of the deals saw Josh Beckett, Guillermo Mota and Mike Lowell
traded to Boston for Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez and two other
prospects. Much has been written about the trade, so I'll try not
to go over already well-tread ground. I thought I might add
something that hasn't been brought up (at least, to my knowledge)
regarding concerns about Beckett's health. Much of injury woes
have been due to blisters on his fingers. But don't blisters
occur
because of friction and moisture? Miami in the summer is
generally a
pretty moist place; Boston on the other hand, isn't. If his
shoulder is healthy, I wouldn't be surprised to see his blister issues
a thing of the past. Expect Beckett to stay healthy enough to put
in 30-32 starts. His numbers will take a hit from moving to the
AL and to a much better hitters park, but staying healthy could offset
some of that. He might also benefit from a little mentoring from
Curt Schilling.. Ramirez reminds me of Julio Lugo: a little
power, good speed, average command of the strikezone. Sanchez is
still probably a year or two away from his debut but figures to be a
pretty decent starter eventually.
The Mets also cashed in on the Marlins' firesale by acquiring Carlos
Delgado for Yusmeiro Petit, Mike Jacobs and a lesser prospect.
Delgado won't be affected by the trade. He's used to the NL now
and Shea isn't much tougher than Pro Player. Expect a run at 40
homers. A lot of pundits like Yusmeiro Petit because his numbers
have been so good in the minors. I guess I'm in the minority
because I'm
not a fan. He doesn't throw hard at all, and while it's possible
for control
pitchers to succeed, their margin for error is slim. Even with
his great numbers last year, he had trouble keeping the ball in the
yard; not a good sign for success in the majors. Jacobs has
pretty good power, but his .300+ average
last year looks a bit out of line given his less than stellar eye for
balls and strikes. He could hit 20 homers, but his average will
probably drop to the .250-.260 range.
The Mets pulled off another trade, this one sending Mike Cameron to the
Padres in exchange for Xavier Nady. It's too bad the Padres
didn't try
more aggressively to acquire Cameron a couple of years ago when he was
a free agent because he
would have saved them two years of aggravation and disappointment with
Jay Payton and Dave Roberts. It's not that Roberts wasn't good,
but he was injured so often that they really only got one month of a
healthy player. Now they have two concerns: the first is, of
course, Cameron's health. The second is that they almost have to
get more than the one year left on his contract for giving up Xavier
Nady, who's never been given a real
chance to show what he could do. He's not a first tier offensive
talent at first like Delgado, but he's at least as good as Lyle Overbay
or Dmitri
Young.
One other significant trade that went down was the Phillies trading Jim
Thome for Aaron Rowand, Daniel Haigwood and a player to be named.
This one puzzled me on a couple points from the Phillies'
standpoint. The first is that they are investing their future at
first base in a guy (Ryan Howard) who can't hit lefties (.148/.175/.246
against them last year). I'm not saying that dealing Thome is the
wrong decision, but only getting a bat as average as Aaron Rowand isn't
the right choice. Along that same line, why is Aaron Rowand
preferable to the guy they already have in center, Jason
Michaels? Michaels has better defensive range, has a higher on
base and last year was a better slugger. Dealing Thome frees up
some money, but it seems to me that there should have been much better
deals to be had. The White Sox, on the other hand, had several
promising centerfielders who can replace Rowand and they get a hitter
with 40-homer potential if he's healthy. Now that he can DH
full-time, Thome has a better chance of staying in the line-up.
I'd be surprised if the White Sox didn't still pursue re-signing Paul
Konerko because if they have to play Thome at first it defeats the
primary purpose for acquiring him in the first place.
OK, so now the signings... the Mariners signed Japanese catching star
Kenji Johjima. He's not a guy who walks a lot
but neither does he strike out much. He did show 30-homer power
in Japan, which should translate to about 15-18 homers a season in
Safeco. His best season came in 2004 when he hit .338 with 36
homers in 498 at bats. Last year a leg injury ended his season
but he should be full strength by spring. The Ms are rumored to
be shopping Yorvit Torrealba, but his talents seem more suited to
backing up than starting. Unless they get a super offer, it just
makes sense to hold on to a guy with starting experience to back up a
guy coming off an injury-shortened year... I was surprised that BJ Ryan
got a 5-year deal to close in Toronto. Ryan did a great job last
year, but if the job becomes too mentally taxing, as it does with most
pitchers who get a chance to close, then the Blue Jays could end up
with a $9 million lefty-specialist. I don't expect that to
happen, and with as much interest that Ryan generated I guess the Jays
had to offer as much as they did to get him, but that's an awful lot of
confidence in a guy who has closed for just one season... If anyone
wonders why the Cubs so frequently fail to live up to expectation, look
no further than their signing of Bobby Howry. I like Howry as a
reliever quite a bit, but the Cubs giving him $4 million a year for
three years just doesn't make much sense. They already signed
Ryan Dempster to close and have Scott Williamson and Mike Wuertz in the
pen. For a team that doesn't have a shortstop or a right fielder,
and has question marks in center, left and second base, finding a third
right-handed set-up man for the pen seems like a misplaced
priority. There's still plenty of winter left to make deals, so
hopefully this was just the Cubs' first salvo in a very active
offseason. If not, they might could find themselves looking up at
the rest of the division.