Why I Picked These Guys, 8th
Edition
November 10, 2016
I don’t think many will
argue that the 2016 MLB post-season was one of the most memorable in the
history of the sport. I would put it above the Red Sox breaking their curse
because as improbable as their come-from-behind victory over the Yankees was in
the ALCS, the World Series that year provided little drama with a four-game
sweep. As a series of games, this year’s was probably behind the 1991 Series in
which every game was decided by a run or two, and featured two worst-to-first
franchises. But for sheer drama, improbability and history, matching the Cubs
against the Indians was about as good as any story writer could ever want, and
the final game was as thrilling as baseball gets. It was ultimately decided in
favor of the Cubs because the Indians simply ran out of viable hitters to send
up to the plate.
So with that as context,
for me personally this year’s XFL draft was even more dramatic. Last year I
came to the draft with only $49 to spend and thought I left with a pretty
decent team. Unfortunately, it didn’t work out that way. Getting nice seasons
from Neil Walker and Michael Saunders was not enough to offset getting only
half seasons from Stephen Strasburg, Yu Darvish,
Jung-Ho Kang and Giancarlo Stanton and as well as subpar years from Anthony Rendon, Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, Paul Goldschmidt and
Justin Upton. Still, I liked the core of that squad, so I kept all of my star
under-performers with the idea that there would be a strong probability of
bounce-back seasons. Admittedly, Strasburg is still a question mark entering
2017, and Kang’s continuing legal issues are a huge concern, but the others
should progress toward their career means in the case of veterans, with the younger
players fulfilling their promise. But taking that path had a huge cost: I went
into this year’s auction with only $32 to spend, which meant I wasn’t going to
be acquiring any star free-agents and would have to hope for some luck around
the periphery.
Working in my favor was
that many of this hitters I kept have a solid history of getting on base, which
is a pretty nice foundation in a league where that is a category. This luxury
would afford me the ability to roster low-on base hitters without suffering too
much damage, and given that they do have a negative impact in that regard,
should come cheaper than other players. I targeted a number of power hitters
that would be viable and refined that list further still by highlighting those
that had down years in 2016, or simply underperformed expectation in metrics
like BABIP (especially when their xBABIP was much
higher).
Unfortunately, my plan
didn’t work out as expected. Many of the hitters I targeted went for premium
dollars in the auction because consistent elite power was in short supply which
also drove up the prices on players who had once shown power or who have the
reputation of having that potential. Also, early on I lacked the courage to go
the extra few dollars on players I wanted for fear that I would not have enough
money at the end to acquire the other players on my list. For someone who went
in needing only to spend $32, that was a big miscalculation as I ended up with
$10 unspent. As odd as it sounds, sometimes it’s easier to spend a large sum of
money than it is a small one. My consolation is that it’s only November and
there are four months of real-world transactions to process that can radically
change the way this draft will look when spring rolls around. Someone who is
speculative today can become a lock for playing time with just one trade or a
free-agent signing. So without further guilding the lilly, here they are and why I chose them:
Jurickson Profar
($6)
Five years ago he was a
can’t-miss prospect but a severe shoulder injury put his career on hold for
almost two years. Injuries like that often take more than a few months to fully
recover from even after the player returns to the field. We should see a fully
healthy Profar in 2017. With positional flexibility
on the horizon, and a decent chance to see additional playing time at first
base until Joey Gallo is ready, I would not all be surprised to see Profar get 450-500 at bats and post numbers similar to the
ones that earned his top prospect status in the low minors i.e. 15 homers, 25
steals with a .360 on base. Although it seems like he’s been around forever, Profar will still only be 24 years old when next season
starts, so there is plenty of room for growth in his game.
Matt Holliday ($1)
Holliday was not my first
choice – in fact he was not even on my list of choices to begin with because he
had always gone for $20+ in this league. So I threw him out expecting others to
bid on him. That obviously didn’t happen. However, there are some things to
like here. For one, he will be looking for a new home, likely in an
Nick Markakis ($2)
I actually targeted this
guy because it is an on base league. In 2015 he was returning from significant
surgery so it’s probably safe to call that year’s production an outlier. For
much of his 11-year career he’s been a 30-40 double, 10-15 homer hitter with a
.360-.370 on base. There don’t appear to be any obvious reasons why he should
not repeat that production next year and might even do
slightly better in the team stat categories like runs and RBI as the Braves
will be getting full seasons from Matt Kemp and Dansby
Swanson.
Andrew Toles ($1)
I was very impressed with Toles in the playoffs. I know it’s a small sample but he
did not seem like the slap hitter he used to be in the low minors. He hit the
ball with some authority which makes me think that double digit home runs is a
real possibility, especially if the Dodgers clean house in their outfield.
There has been talk of a Puig/Braun trade, and Andre Ethier only has one more year on his contract, making him
somewhat tradable. At worst, Toles is a fourth outfielder for them and at best a solid
outfielder playing every day. If the latter, then he’s a decent bet for 25-30
steals as well.
Kolten Wong ($2)
I’m not sure I buy that
Wong is a 20/20 player but I’m fairly certain he’s not as bad as he looked last
year. The Cardinals have mishandled both him and Grichuk
but with Wong they were especially misguided when they sent him to the minors
to learn center field – despite the fact that he’s their best defensive second
baseman – and upon his return, ready to man a new position, never gave him the
opportunity. The team is clearly looking up at the Cubs in their division so
it’s time for them to see what they have in these two talents and give them a
full season shot with no conditions. So I buy a rebound, maybe 12-15 homers and
25 steals. His walk and strikeout rates are both trending in positive
directions and last year he was pretty unlucky on balls in play. Whether it’s
with the Cardinals or with another team I expect we’ll see a much better
version of Wong than we saw in 2016.
Miguel Montero ($1)
With David Ross retired,
Montero should get enough at bats as a back-up to could contribute a little,
and his production should see a bump in rates since he was pretty unlucky with
balls in play. But now that he’s spouted off about the Cubs handling his
playing time and playoff usage, I would not be surprised to see him shipped off
somewhere else, which opens the possibility of regular playing time. With
Wilson Ramos looking for a multi-year contract yet starting the year on the DL
I imagine the Nationals will be looking for some catching help. Derek Norris
(one of the other catchers I had targeted) has some ties to Washington and will
be pressed for playing time in San Diego so I can see them trading for him to
replace Ramos. But his framing skills have not been highly-regarded, something
the Nationals prioritize even above offensive potential from their catchers.
Mike Rizzo is familiar with Montero from his days in
Danny Espinosa ($1)
This was my back-up plan
to my back-up plan. Actually I don’t mind having Espinosa because in each of
the last two years he’s shown signs early in the season of learning how to lay off
bad pitches. Of course, by the second half he’s been back to his free-swinging
ways but maybe with one more year it will take for a full season. He’s an
excellent defensive shortstop and unless the Nats trade for a standout
centerfielder I can’t imagine them putting Turner back at short. There really
isn’t any need. The free agent shortstop market is pretty weak and even if the Nats were considering Ian Desmond as a possibility to move
back to short, he’s not as good a defender as Espinosa and has some of the same
swing-and-miss issues. It’s possible that the right trade will come up that
changes the status quo of Turner in center and Espinosa at short, but I don’t
believe there is much urgency for change there, or at least not as much urgency
for upgrades as there are for other aspects of that team, like in the bullpen
and back end of the rotation.
Jon Gray ($1)
I know people tend to
steer completely clear of
Robbie Ray ($2)
Ray was an interesting
take for me. I picked him up as a mid-season free agent last year in order to
get a boost in strikeouts, and he certainly helped in that regard. However,
that came with considerable downside as his ratios were never that good and his
ERA was inflated by a lot of flyballs leaving for
home runs. Another concern is that he didn’t really manage contact very well.
When he missed his location he tended to miss in the heart of the zone. So
while his FIP suggests a much better pitcher, part of his struggles can be
explained by something other than bad luck. Don’t get me wrong; there was
plenty of bad luck. His home run to flyball rate was
50% worse than it should have been. That is likely to improve. And the D-back
bullpen was dreadful when it came to stranding runners when he left the game.
One would assume that would improve as well. One of the things that he probably
can’t count on in 2017 is the Dodgers being so anemic versus left-handed
pitching. He held them to a .172 batting average and .590 OPS over 4 starts.
What gives me reason for optimism is that he pitched better against good teams
than he did against bad, suggesting that he can raise the level of his game.
Hopefully that maturity – to treat all games as big games - will come sooner than
later. One other reason to hope for better is that the D-backs defense,
especially in the outfield, should be better with the return of AJ Pollock,
assuming he can stay healthy. Not too long ago WHIP was thought to be one of
the least volatile stats but with increased attention played to defense these
days, it can change dramatically from season to season without the pitcher
doing much at all. A full season of Pollock and the realization that Yasmany Tomas does not belong anywhere with a glove on his
hand should dramatically improve
Ryan Madson ($5)
Honestly I did not intend
to buy a second closer. I already had Alex Colome in
the fold from my keeper list and was content with picking up a promising
reliever here for $1 and then a couple more in the spring. But since I failed
to spend my money earlier in the draft I decided I might as well spend it on
one of the remaining closers. I know a lot of people are down on Madson particularly due to the way he finished the season
with a September ERA of 6.30. However, there was nothing in his velocity
readings that would indicate a future problem. The As
don’t usually spend on the open market to acquire closers so any competition
would likely come from within. Liam Hendricks and Sean Doolittle pose some
threat to Madson’s job, but Madson
generated more groundballs than either, and in the second half that percentage
wasn’t particularly close. So Madson should come in
as the favorite and has the skills to retain the job.
As I suggested before, we
still have four months to go before meaningful games begin again and a lot can
happen in that time to make some of these picks more appealing. I’d like to
think I bought low on all of them and either improved production and/or a
better situation will increase their value. I’ll get another chance to add to
their ranks in March which with some luck will produce a contending team. Until
then, have a happy hot stove season!