The Compleat Gallo

October 21, 2016

I have to say that I have never been so intrigued with the future of a player than I am with Joey Gallo. The reason is that in this day and age of seeing the repackaging of everything that has happened before, we might be seeing something entirely new: a player who truly embodies the three true outcomes of a hitter. No one in history has his combination of tremendous power, the ability to draw a walk and the inability to make consistent contact. And believe me, I’ve looked. Most players generate comp scores – which is basically a picture of who the player’s statistical legacy will resemble - that have at least one player in the neighborhood of 95% similarity. Most have numerous statistical dopplegangers. Gallo’s closest comp scored a 65%. His combination of power, strikeouts and walks is as unique as it gets.

What follows is a comparison to a number of the wildest swinging/disciplined sluggers on which there is strong information. The list includes a wide range of successes and failures: Chris Davis, Chris Carter, Adam Dunn, Russell Branyan, Jack Cust, Ryan Howard, Javier Baez, Mitch Moreland, Greg Halman, Telvin Nash, Miguel Sano, Brandon Wood, Dallas McPherson, Cody Johnson, etc... you get the idea.

What will be obvious from the numbers is that Gallo’s contact rate in the majors is worse than all of them (at least the ones who made it that far), although it's very close to that of Javier Baez when he first came up. His strikeout rate is worse as well, in some cases more than 10% worse even in the minors. There's no question he has been dangerously insufficient making contact. However, he is younger than most of them were at the same levels and he showed significant improvement this year. And his swinging strike rate is very close to that of Branyan and Carter when they first arrived despite being two years younger. His walk rate is better than all of them, much better in some cases. And then there's the power: roughly one in every three hits is a home run for his entire career including the majors. 

So what can we expect from Gallo next year and beyond?

I decide to break it down by age so with each table I’ll follow with some commentary.

Player	Year	Team	Lg	Level	Org	Pos	Age	Diff	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	IBB	SH	SF	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	secA	Babip	K/BB	AB/HR	TB	PA	BB%	K%
Baez	2011	Azl Cubs	Ariz	Rk	chn	ss	18	-3.1	3	12	2	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.333	0.500	833	0.167	0.333	0.400	--	--	6	12	0.000	0.167
Baez	2011	Boise	Nwst	A-	chn	ss	18	-3.4	2	6	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0.167	0.167	0.167	334	0.000	0.000	0.250	--	--	1	6	0.000	0.333
Branyan	1994	Burlington	App	Rk	cle	3B	18	-2	55	171	21	36	10	0	5	13	4	2	25	64	4	2	0	1	3	0.211	0.323	0.357	680	0.146	0.304	0.301	2.56	34.20	61	201	0.124	0.327
C Johnson	2007	Danville	App	Rk	atl	Of	18	-2.6	63	243	51	74	18	5	17	57	7	0	26	72	1	0	0	0	1	0.305	0.374	0.630	1004	0.325	0.461	0.370	2.77	14.30	153	270	0.096	0.268
Carter	2005	Bristol	App	Rk	cha	31	18	-2.7	65	233	33	66	17	0	10	37	2	1	17	64	8	0	2	2	4	0.283	0.350	0.485	835	0.202	0.279	0.348	3.76	23.30	113	262	0.065	0.256
Cust	1997	Azl Diamondbacks	Ariz	Rk	ari	of	18	-1.3	35	121	26	37	11	1	3	33	2	0	31	39	0	0	0	0	4	0.306	0.447	0.488	935	0.182	0.455	0.430	1.26	40.30	59	152	0.204	0.257
Dunn	1998	Billings	Pio	Rk	cin	of	18	-2.3	34	125	26	36	3	1	4	13	4	2	22	23	3	1	0	1	3	0.288	0.404	0.424	828	0.136	0.328	0.323	1.05	31.30	53	151	0.146	0.156
Gallo	2012	Azl Rangers	Ariz	Rk	tex	3b	18	-2.8	43	150	44	44	10	1	18	43	6	0	37	52	3	1	0	3	0	0.293	0.435	0.733	1168	0.440	0.727	0.313	1.41	8.30	110	193	0.192	0.278
Gallo	2012	Spokane	Nwst	A-	tex	3b	18	-3.4	16	56	9	12	2	0	4	9	0	0	11	26	0	2	0	0	0	0.214	0.343	0.464	807	0.250	0.446	0.308	2.36	14.00	26	67	0.164	0.388
Halman	2006	Everett	Nwst	A-	sea	of	18	-3.4	28	116	19	30	6	4	5	15	10	4	3	32	3	1	1	0	2	0.259	0.295	0.509	804	0.250	0.328	0.316	10.67	23.20	59	123	0.024	0.269
McPherson	1999	The Citadel	Socon	College			18		31	87	14	21	4	0	1	14	0	0	11	30	1		1	1		0.241	0.330	0.322	652	0.080	0.207	0.351	2.73	87.00	28	101	0.109	0.306
Nash	2009	GCL Astros	GCL	Rk	hou	lf	18	-2.8	40	142	15	31	10	1	1	20	1	2	12	45	1	0	0	2	6	0.218	0.280	0.324	604	0.106	0.183	0.306	3.75	142.00	46	157	0.076	0.292
Sano	2011	Elizabethton	App	Rk	min	3b	18	-2.9	66	267	58	78	18	7	20	59	5	4	23	77	2	0	0	1	4	0.292	0.352	0.637	989	0.345	0.434	0.339	3.35	13.40	170	293	0.078	0.266
Wood	2003	Provo	Pio	Rk	ana	ss	18	-2.8	42	162	25	45	13	2	5	31	1	1	16	48	2	0	0	1	2	0.278	0.348	0.475	823	0.198	0.296	0.364	3.00	32.40	77	181	0.088	0.270
Wood	2003	Azl Angels	Ariz	Rk	ana	ss	18	-2.5	19	78	14	24	8	2	0	13	3	0	4	15	2	0	0	2	2	0.308	0.349	0.462	811	0.154	0.244	0.369	3.75	--	36	86	0.047	0.183

So here is our first inkling that we might be looking at something special. Gallo was drafted out of high school and sent to the Arizona Short Season League where he broke the league record for homers. Most high school hitters are considered good power prospects if they hit 9-10 homers in a season, or maybe 30 in a high school career; Gallo hit 67. Notice the other players on the list who also have a lot of homers; see how many more at bats they have? Close to 100 more than Gallo. Also notice his walk rate; it more than doubles most of the hitters on the list. The strikeout rate? Yes, we’re seeing the whole enchilada right away.

Player	Year	Team	Lg	Level	Org	Pos	Age	Diff	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	IBB	SH	SF	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	secA	Babip	K/BB	AB/HR	TB	PA	BB%	K%
Baez	2012	Peoria	Midw	A	chn	ss	19	-3	57	213	41	71	10	5	12	33	20	3	9	48	10	0	0	3	3	0.333	0.383	0.596	979	0.263	0.385	0.378	5.33	17.80	127	235	0.038	0.216
Baez	2012	Daytona	FSL	A+	chn	ss	19	-4.6	23	80	9	15	3	1	4	13	4	2	5	21	1	1	0	0	1	0.188	0.244	0.400	644	0.213	0.300	0.200	4.20	20.00	32	86	0.058	0.247
Branyan	1995	Columbus	SAL	A	cle	3b	19	-2.5	76	277	46	71	8	6	19	55	1	1	27	120	3	2	0	3	6	0.256	0.326	0.534	860	0.278	0.375	0.369	4.44	14.60	148	310	0.087	0.395
C Johnson	2008	Rome	SAL	A	atl	of	19	-3.2	127	468	62	118	26	1	26	89	8	3	40	177	0	0	0	6	8	0.252	0.307	0.479	786	0.226	0.323	0.339	4.43	18.00	224	514	0.078	0.348
Carter	2006	Great Falls	Pio	Rk	cha	1b	19	-2.2	69	251	37	75	21	1	15	59	4	4	34	70	8	5	0	1	3	0.299	0.398	0.570	968	0.271	0.406	0.359	2.06	16.70	143	294	0.116	0.246
Carter	2006	Kannapolis	SAL	A	cha	1b	19	-3.2	13	46	4	6	3	0	1	5	0	0	5	17	1	0	0	0	1	0.130	0.231	0.261	492	0.130	0.239	0.179	3.40	46.00	12	52	0.096	0.333
Cust	1998	Lethbridge	Pio	Rk	ari	of	19	-1.3	73	223	75	77	20	2	11	56	15	8	86	71	4	3	0	2	3	0.345	0.530	0.601	1131	0.256	0.673	0.462	0.83	20.30	134	315	0.273	0.230
Cust	1998	South Bend	Midw	A	ari	1b	19	-2.6	16	62	5	15	3	0	0	4	0	1	5	20	0	1	0	1	0	0.242	0.294	0.290	584	0.048	0.113	0.349	4.00	--	18	68	0.074	0.299
Dunn	1999	Rockford	Midw	A	cin	of	19	-2.7	93	313	62	96	16	2	11	44	21	10	46	64	10	3	0	3	6	0.307	0.409	0.476	885	0.169	0.351	0.353	1.39	28.50	149	372	0.124	0.178
Gallo	2013	Azl Rangers	Ariz	Rk	tex	3b	19	-1.9	5	19	4	7	4	0	2	10	1	0	2	7	0	0	0	0	0	0.368	0.429	0.895	1324	0.526	0.684	0.500	3.50	9.50	17	21	0.095	0.333
Gallo	2013	Hickory	SAL	A	tex	3b	19	-3.3	106	392	82	96	19	5	38	78	14	1	48	165	5	1	0	1	2	0.245	0.334	0.610	944	0.365	0.520	0.305	3.44	10.30	239	446	0.108	0.375
Halman	2007	Everett	Nwst	A-	sea	of	19	-2.2	62	238	37	73	19	1	16	37	16	8	21	85	4	4	1	1	2	0.307	0.371	0.597	968	0.290	0.412	0.413	4.05	14.90	142	265	0.079	0.328
Halman	2007	Wisconsin	Midw	A	sea	of	19	-3	52	187	26	34	5	0	4	15	15	7	8	77	5	0	1	1	1	0.182	0.234	0.273	507	0.091	0.176	0.280	9.63	46.80	51	202	0.040	0.395
McPherson	2000	The Citadel	NCAA	College	so		19		59	233	50	88	18	3	9	55	3	1	25	42	2		2	2	2	0.378	0.439	0.597	1036	0.219	0.335	0.429	1.68	25.90	139	264	0.095	0.163
Nash	2010	Greeneville	App	Rk	hou	lf	19	-2.1	57	200	30	53	12	1	12	39	1	1	25	64	1	0	0	1	5	0.265	0.348	0.515	863	0.250	0.375	0.328	2.56	16.70	103	227	0.110	0.284
Nash	2010	Tri City	NYPL	A-	hou	lf	19	-2.5	4	13	2	4	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	7	0	0	0	0	0	0.308	0.308	0.769	1077	0.462	0.385	0.600	--	13.00	10	13	0.000	0.538
Sano	2012	Beloit	Midw	A	min	3b	19	-3	129	457	75	118	28	4	28	100	8	3	80	144	8	4	0	8	10	0.258	0.373	0.521	894	0.263	0.449	0.307	1.80	16.30	238	553	0.145	0.268
Wood	2004	Cedar Rapids	Midw	A	ana	ss	19	-2.9	125	478	65	120	30	5	11	64	21	5	46	117	5	3	4	2	8	0.251	0.322	0.404	726	0.153	0.282	0.310	2.54	43.50	193	535	0.086	0.223

Another pattern is beginning to emerge: upon first exposure to a level he struggles mightily but makes adjustments and the second time through just mashes the ball. Again he is among the leaders on this board in walk rate as well as one of the youngest compared to his competition, both promising signs for a bright future. It was after this season that Gallo worked with Jason Giambi on his hitting, as well as Troy Tulowitzki on his defensive footwork.

Player	Year	Team	Lg	Level	Org	Pos	Age	Diff	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	IBB	SH	SF	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	secA	Babip	K/BB	AB/HR	TB	PA	BB%	K%
Baez	2013	Daytona	FSL	A+	chn	ss	20	-3.8	76	299	59	82	19	4	17	57	12	2	21	78	11	0	0	6	8	0.274	0.338	0.535	873	0.261	0.365	0.310	3.71	17.60	160	337	0.062	0.244
Baez	2013	Tennessee	Sou	AA	chn	ss	20	-4.7	54	218	39	64	15	0	20	54	8	2	19	69	0	2	0	3	3	0.294	0.346	0.638	984	0.344	0.459	0.333	3.63	10.90	139	240	0.079	0.291
Branyan	1996	Columbus	SAL	A	cle	3b	20	-1.4	130	482	102	129	20	4	40	106	7	4	62	166	5	5	0	3	4	0.268	0.355	0.575	930	0.307	0.442	0.319	2.68	12.10	277	552	0.112	0.305
C Davis	2006	Spokane	Nwst	A-	tex	of-1b	20	-1.4	69	253	38	70	18	1	15	42	2	3	23	65	3	2	0	1	4	0.277	0.343	0.534	877	0.257	0.344	0.316	2.83	16.90	135	280	0.082	0.236
C Johnson	2009	Myrtle Beach	Caro	A+	atl	lf	20	-3.3	122	422	59	102	18	1	32	84	10	7	64	171	4	7	0	3	8	0.242	0.345	0.517	862	0.275	0.434	0.315	2.67	13.20	218	493	0.130	0.352
C Johnson	2009	Mississippi	Sou	AA	atl	lf	20	-4.6	6	22	2	4	0	0	0	3	1	0	3	9	0	0	0	0	0	0.182	0.280	0.182	462	0.000	0.182	0.308	3.00	--	4	25	0.120	0.360
Carter	2007	Kannapolis	SAL	A	cha	1b	20	-2.2	126	467	84	136	27	3	25	93	3	2	67	112	6	3	0	5	6	0.291	0.383	0.522	905	0.231	0.377	0.331	1.67	18.70	244	545	0.123	0.210
Cust	1999	High Desert	Calif	A+	ari	of	20	-2.9	125	455	107	152	42	3	32	112	1	4	96	145	2	2	0	3	5	0.334	0.450	0.651	1101	0.316	0.521	0.427	1.51	14.20	296	556	0.173	0.263
Dunn	2000	Dayton	Midw	A	cin	of	20	-1.8	122	420	101	118	29	1	16	79	24	5	100	101	12	4	0	6	10	0.281	0.428	0.469	897	0.188	0.471	0.330	1.01	26.30	197	538	0.186	0.194
Gallo	2014	Myrtle Beach	Caro	A+	tex	3b	20	-3.2	58	189	53	61	9	3	21	50	5	3	51	64	2	3	0	4	3	0.323	0.463	0.735	1198	0.413	0.693	0.370	1.25	9.00	139	246	0.207	0.267
Gallo	2014	Frisco	Tex	AA	tex	3b	20	-4.5	68	250	44	58	10	0	21	56	2	0	36	115	3	4	1	1	0	0.232	0.334	0.524	858	0.292	0.444	0.322	3.19	11.90	131	291	0.124	0.402
Halman	2008	High Desert	Calif	A+	sea	of	20	-3.3	67	257	52	69	15	3	19	53	23	1	16	76	5	1	1	3	6	0.268	0.320	0.572	892	0.304	0.451	0.303	4.75	13.50	147	282	0.057	0.278
Halman	2008	West Tennessee	Sou	AA	sea	of	20	-4.9	61	235	43	65	14	2	10	30	8	6	16	66	4	2	0	1	6	0.277	0.332	0.481	813	0.204	0.281	0.344	4.13	23.50	113	256	0.063	0.263
McPherson	2001	Provo	Pio	Rk	ana	3b	20	-0.4	31	124	30	49	11	0	5	29	1	0	12	22	0	0	0	0	2	0.395	0.449	0.605	1054	0.210	0.315	0.454	1.83	24.80	75	136	0.088	0.162
Nash	2011	GCL Astros	GCL	Rk	hou	1b	20	-1	5	13	5	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0.385	0.500	0.538	1038	0.154	0.385	0.455	0.67	--	7	16	0.188	0.125
Nash	2011	Lexington	SAL	A	hou	1b	20	-2.1	73	268	41	72	16	0	14	37	2	0	40	103	6	3	0	2	6	0.269	0.373	0.485	858	0.216	0.373	0.379	2.58	19.10	130	316	0.127	0.334
Sano	2013	Fort Myers	FSL	A+	min	3b	20	-3.8	56	206	51	68	15	2	16	48	9	2	29	61	6	2	0	2	2	0.330	0.424	0.655	1079	0.325	0.500	0.397	2.10	12.90	135	243	0.119	0.260
Sano	2013	New Britain	East	AA	min	3b	20	-5.1	67	233	35	55	15	3	19	55	2	1	36	81	4	2	0	3	6	0.236	0.344	0.571	915	0.335	0.494	0.265	2.25	12.30	133	276	0.130	0.301
Wood	2005	Rancho Cucamonga	Calif	A+	ana	ss	20	-3.3	130	536	109	172	51	4	43	115	7	3	48	128	7	5	2	2	12	0.321	0.383	0.672	1055	0.351	0.448	0.351	2.67	12.50	360	595	0.081	0.219
Wood	2005	Salt Lake	PCL	AAA	ana	ss	20	-7.1	4	19	1	6	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	0	0.316	0.316	0.526	842	0.211	0.211	0.462	--	--	10	19	0.000	0.316

The work paid off immediately facing a tougher league. What’s perhaps more impressive is that while in the Carolina League, his strikeout rate is rather ordinary. Here we’re starting to see some close parallels to the career of Jack Cust. He was also a hitter that teams didn’t know how to use. The biggest difference between the two, however, is that Gallo is athletic; Cust most definitely was not. I’ve attended or worked at least 600 games in my life and watched a thousand more on TV and Cust is the only player I have ever seen fail to score from third when no one was covering home plate. It happened in Baltimore against the Yankees and in a bizarre play the Yankee catcher was down the first base line and no one was covering home plate. Cust “dashed” home but was caught from behind and tagged by Aaron Boone who began the play at least three yards behind him. Yes, he made up three yards in the span of less than 90 feet. That was Jack Cust. Why does this matter? Because athletic ability guarantees that Gallo will get more opportunities at the plate than Cust did. Managers were reluctant to use Cust because they could not use him in the field with any confidence; Gallo at least has a strong arm and can move well and has some position versatility as he’s played outfield and first base in addition to third.

Player	Year	Team	Lg	Level	Org	Pos	Age	Diff	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	IBB	SH	SF	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	secA	Babip	K/BB	AB/HR	TB	PA	BB%	K%
Baez	2014	Iowa	PCL	AAA	chn	ss	21	-5.7	104	388	64	101	24	2	23	80	16	8	34	130	5	3	0	7	14	0.260	0.323	0.510	833	0.250	0.358	0.322	3.82	16.90	198	434	0.078	0.308
Baez	2014	Chicago Cubs	NL	MLB	chn	ss-2b	21		52	213	25	36	6	0	9	20	5	1	15	95	1	0	0	0	5	0.169	0.227	0.324	551	0.155	0.244	0.248	6.33	23.70	69	229	0.066	0.417
Branyan	1997	Kinston	Caro	A+	cle	3b	21	-1.7	83	297	59	86	26	2	27	75	3	1	52	94	5	4	0	5	9	0.290	0.398	0.663	1061	0.374	0.556	0.326	1.81	11.00	197	359	0.145	0.269
Branyan	1997	Akron	East	AA	cle	3b	21	-3.2	41	137	26	32	4	0	12	30	0	0	28	56	2	1	0	1	1	0.234	0.369	0.526	895	0.292	0.496	0.286	2.00	11.40	72	168	0.167	0.339
C Davis	2007	Bakersfield	Calif	A+	tex	3b	21	-2.4	99	386	69	115	28	3	24	93	3	3	22	123	5	2	0	5	8	0.298	0.340	0.573	913	0.275	0.332	0.373	5.59	16.10	221	418	0.053	0.301
C Davis	2007	Frisco	Tex	AA	tex	3b	21	-4.1	30	109	21	32	7	0	12	25	0	0	13	27	1	1	0	1	0	0.294	0.371	0.688	1059	0.394	0.514	0.282	2.08	9.10	75	124	0.105	0.221
C Johnson	2010	GCL Braves	GCL	Rk	atl	lf	21	0.2	6	20	5	5	0	0	2	4	1	1	2	8	0	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.318	0.550	868	0.300	0.400	0.300	4.00	10.00	11	22	0.091	0.364
C Johnson	2010	Myrtle Beach	Caro	A+	atl	lf	21	-2.2	25	91	12	24	4	0	6	25	2	2	10	29	0	2	0	1	1	0.264	0.333	0.505	838	0.242	0.352	0.316	2.90	15.20	46	102	0.098	0.287
C Johnson	2010	Mississippi	Sou	AA	atl	lf	21	-3.4	75	233	26	44	6	0	10	31	9	5	25	114	1	0	0	1	1	0.189	0.269	0.343	612	0.155	0.279	0.309	4.56	23.30	80	260	0.096	0.442
Carter	2008	Stockton	Calif	A+	oak	3b-1b	21	-2.3	137	506	101	131	32	4	39	104	4	0	77	156	7	2	0	6	7	0.259	0.361	0.569	930	0.310	0.470	0.290	2.03	13.00	288	596	0.129	0.268
Cust	2000	El Paso	Tex	AA	ari	of	21	-3.5	129	447	100	131	32	6	20	75	12	9	117	150	2	12	0	2	10	0.293	0.440	0.526	966	0.233	0.501	0.398	1.28	22.40	235	568	0.206	0.266
Dunn	2001	Chattanooga	Sou	AA	cin	of	21	-3.5	39	140	30	48	9	0	12	31	6	3	24	31	3	3	1	0	1	0.343	0.449	0.664	1113	0.321	0.514	0.371	1.29	11.70	93	168	0.143	0.189
Dunn	2001	Louisville	IL	AAA	cin	of	21	-6	55	210	44	69	13	0	20	53	5	1	38	51	5	3	0	1	1	0.329	0.441	0.676	1117	0.348	0.548	0.350	1.34	10.50	142	254	0.150	0.206
Dunn	2001	Cincinnati Reds	NL	MLB	cin	rf-lf	21		66	244	54	64	18	1	19	43	4	2	38	74	4	2	0	0	4	0.262	0.371	0.578	949	0.316	0.480	0.298	1.95	12.80	141	286	0.133	0.262
Gallo	2015	Frisco	Tex	AA	tex	3b	21	-3.7	34	121	21	38	10	1	9	31	1	0	24	49	0	0	0	1	1	0.314	0.425	0.636	1061	0.322	0.529	0.453	2.04	13.40	77	146	0.164	0.338
Gallo	2015	Round Rock	PCL	AAA	tex	3b	21	-5.7	53	200	20	39	9	0	14	32	1	0	27	90	0	2	0	1	3	0.195	0.289	0.450	739	0.255	0.395	0.258	3.33	14.30	90	228	0.118	0.396
Gallo	2015	Texas Rangers	AL	MLB	tex	lf-3b	21		36	108	16	22	3	1	6	14	3	0	15	57	0	3	0	0	0	0.204	0.301	0.417	718	0.213	0.380	0.356	3.80	18.00	45	123	0.122	0.463
Halman	2009	Azl Mariners	Ariz	Rk	sea		21	-0.2	3	11	1	2	0	1	0	2	0	0	2	8	0	0	0	0	0	0.182	0.308	0.364	672	0.182	0.364	0.667	4.00	--	4	13	0.154	0.615
Halman	2009	West Tennessee	Sou	AA	sea	cf-rf	21	-3.6	121	457	64	96	17	2	25	72	9	7	29	183	15	1	2	3	9	0.210	0.278	0.420	698	0.210	0.278	0.282	6.31	18.30	192	506	0.057	0.377
Howard	2001	Missouri State	NCAA	College	jr		21		58	225	45	61	15	1	13	54	12	0	40	74						0.271	0.381	0.520	901	0.249	0.480	0.348	1.85	17.30	117	265	0.151	0.279
Howard	2001	Batavia	NYPL	A-	phi	1b	21	-0.2	48	169	26	46	7	3	6	35	0	0	30	55	2	5	0	2	1	0.272	0.384	0.456	840	0.183	0.361	0.364	1.83	28.20	77	203	0.148	0.276
McPherson	2002	Cedar Rapids	Midw	A	ana	3b	21	-0.6	132	499	71	138	24	3	15	88	30	6	78	128	7	3	0	2	9	0.277	0.381	0.427	808	0.150	0.355	0.344	1.64	33.30	213	586	0.133	0.222
Nash	2012	Lancaster	Calif	A+	hou	lf	21	-2.6	106	393	61	88	19	0	29	75	0	1	47	198	7	0	0	2	10	0.224	0.316	0.494	810	0.270	0.387	0.351	4.21	13.60	194	449	0.105	0.450
???????	1971	???????	East	AA	???		21		74	237	27	50	7	1	8	31	3	3	27	66	4		0	0		0.211	0.302	0.350	652	0.139	0.139	0.183	--	29.60	83	237	0.101	0.250
Wood	2006	Arkansas	Tex	AA	ana		21	-3.6	118	453	74	125	42	4	25	83	19	3	54	149	6	1	1	8	10	0.276	0.355	0.552	907	0.276	0.430	0.348	2.76	18.10	250	522	0.103	0.294

The second time through Double A Frisco looks similar to his first run through High A Myrtle Beach but again we see the struggles upon his mid-season promotion. One concern about putting too much faith in minor league walk rates is that we don’t know if they are due to a discerning eye or pitchers who simply don’t want to risk throwing something well in the zone to a power-hitter like Gallo. And being as they are in Triple-A, they miss a lot sometimes by quite a bit. If the rate is due to the former we should see at least respectable contact rates in the majors. Not always, but usually. If it’s the latter, the contact rate becomes a much bigger concern. This is not uncommon and we’ve seen a number of highly regarded prospects with excellent walk rates crater when they were promoted to the majors. Jeremy Hermida comes to mind but there are others. He had brilliant walk numbers but was unable to make consistent enough contact to make major league pitchers respect his eye at the plate.

Player	Year	Team	Lg	Level	Org	Pos	Age	Diff	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	IBB	SH	SF	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	secA	Babip	K/BB	AB/HR	TB	PA	BB%	K%
Baez	2015	Azl Cubs	Ariz	Rk	chn	ss	22	0.9	4	12	3	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	0.417	0.533	0.500	1033	0.083	0.250	0.417	0.00	--	6	15	0.067	0.000
Baez	2015	Iowa	PCL	AAA	chn	ss	22	-4.7	70	281	49	91	14	2	13	61	17	3	21	76	8	0	1	2	6	0.324	0.385	0.527	912	0.203	0.327	0.402	3.62	21.60	148	313	0.067	0.252
Baez	2015	Chicago Cubs	NL	MLB	chn	2b-3b	22		28	76	4	22	6	0	1	4	1	2	4	24	0	1	0	0	0	0.289	0.325	0.408	733	0.118	0.158	0.412	6.00	76.00	31	80	0.050	0.300
Branyan	1998	Akron	East	AA	cle	3b	22	-2.2	43	163	35	48	11	3	16	46	1	1	35	58	0	4	0	1	2	0.294	0.417	0.693	1110	0.399	0.613	0.356	1.66	10.20	113	199	0.176	0.293
Branyan	1998	Cleveland Indians	AL	MLB	cle	3b	22		1	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0	0.000	0.000	0.000	--	--	0	4	0.000	0.500
C Davis	2008	Frisco	Tex	AA	tex	1b	22	-2.8	46	186	43	62	14	0	13	42	5	1	13	44	1	2	0	2	3	0.333	0.376	0.618	994	0.285	0.376	0.374	3.38	14.30	115	202	0.064	0.221
C Davis	2008	Oklahoma	PCL	AAA	tex	1b	22	-4.9	31	111	25	37	7	1	10	31	2	0	13	29	1	1	0	2	3	0.333	0.402	0.685	1087	0.351	0.486	0.365	2.23	11.10	76	127	0.102	0.234
C Davis	2008	Texas Rangers	AL	MLB	tex	1b-3b	22		80	295	51	84	23	2	17	55	1	2	20	88	1	1	0	1	5	0.285	0.331	0.549	880	0.264	0.329	0.351	4.40	17.40	162	317	0.063	0.279
C Johnson	2011	Tampa	FSL	A+	nya	lf	22	-1.7	39	135	26	44	10	1	6	22	0	0	11	56	3	0	0	1	2	0.326	0.387	0.548	935	0.222	0.304	0.514	5.09	22.50	74	150	0.073	0.384
C Johnson	2011	Trenton	East	AA	nya	lf	22	-3.2	74	297	37	67	16	1	15	45	1	0	20	138	2	0	0	2	4	0.226	0.277	0.438	715	0.212	0.283	0.356	6.90	19.80	130	321	0.062	0.435
Carter	2009	Midland	Tex	AA	oak	1b	22	-2.7	125	490	108	165	41	2	24	101	13	5	82	119	11	2	0	10	11	0.337	0.435	0.576	1011	0.239	0.422	0.395	1.45	20.40	282	593	0.138	0.208
Carter	2009	Sacramento	PCL	AAA	oak	1b-lf	22	-4.9	13	54	7	14	2	0	4	14	0	1	3	14	0	0	0	1	1	0.259	0.293	0.519	812	0.259	0.296	0.270	4.67	13.50	28	58	0.052	0.246
Cust	2001	Tucson	PCL	AAA	ari	of	22	-5.2	135	442	81	123	24	2	27	79	6	3	102	160	5	3	0	5	10	0.278	0.415	0.525	940	0.247	0.484	0.369	1.57	16.40	232	554	0.184	0.294
Cust	2001	Arizona Diamondbacks	NL	MLB	ari	lf	22		3	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.667	0.500	1167	0.000	0.500	0.500	0.00	--	1	3	0.333	0.000
Dunn	2002	Cincinnati Reds	NL	MLB	cin	lf	22		158	535	84	133	28	2	26	71	19	9	128	170	9	13	1	3	8	0.249	0.400	0.454	854	0.206	0.464	0.313	1.33	20.60	243	676	0.189	0.256
Gallo	2016	Round Rock	PCL	AAA	tex	3b	22	-4.6	102	359	71	86	17	6	25	66	2	0	68	150	5	0	1	4	2	0.240	0.365	0.529	894	0.290	0.485	0.324	2.21	14.40	190	437	0.156	0.351
Gallo	2016	Texas Rangers	AL	MLB	tex	3b	22		17	25	2	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	5	19	0	0	0	0	0	0.040	0.200	0.160	360	0.120	0.250	0.000	3.80	25.00	4	30	0.167	0.633
Halman	2010	Tacoma	PCL	AAA	sea	cf	22	-4.8	112	424	82	103	21	4	33	80	15	4	37	169	4	0	0	0	8	0.243	0.310	0.545	855	0.302	0.415	0.315	4.57	12.80	231	465	0.080	0.367
Halman	2010	Seattle Mariners	AL	MLB	sea	lf-cf	22		9	29	1	4	1	0	0	3	1	0	1	11	0	0	0	0	0	0.138	0.167	0.172	339	0.034	0.103	0.222	11.00	--	5	30	0.033	0.367
Howard	2002	Lakewood	SAL	A	phi	1b	22	0.2	135	493	56	138	20	6	19	87	5	4	66	145	5	13	1	5	9	0.280	0.367	0.460	827	0.181	0.316	0.356	2.20	25.90	227	570	0.116	0.259
McPherson	2003	Rancho Cucamonga	Calif	A+	ana	3b	22	-1.4	77	292	65	90	21	6	18	59	12	6	41	79	6	2	0	0	4	0.308	0.404	0.606	1010	0.298	0.459	0.369	1.93	16.20	177	339	0.121	0.237
McPherson	2003	Arkansas	Tex	AA	ana	3b	22	-2.9	28	102	22	32	9	1	5	27	4	0	19	25	1	4	0	0	4	0.314	0.426	0.569	995	0.255	0.480	0.375	1.32	20.40	58	122	0.156	0.207
Nash	2013	Lancaster	Calif	A+	hou	1b	22	-1.7	62	228	43	56	10	0	16	48	1	0	37	93	3	0	0	1	6	0.246	0.357	0.500	857	0.254	0.421	0.333	2.51	14.30	114	269	0.138	0.351
Sano	2015	Chattanooga	Sou	AA	min	3b	22	-2.7	66	241	55	66	18	1	15	48	5	1	38	68	3	2	0	4	5	0.274	0.374	0.544	918	0.270	0.444	0.315	1.79	16.10	131	286	0.133	0.244
Sano	2015	Minnesota Twins	AL	MLB	min	dh	22		80	279	46	75	17	1	18	52	1	1	53	119	1	1	0	2	4	0.269	0.385	0.530	915	0.262	0.452	0.396	2.25	15.50	148	335	0.158	0.358
???????	1972	??????	PCL	AAA	???		22		131	436	80	127	23	6	26	91	6	2	87	145	2		3	3		0.291	0.409	0.550	960	0.259	0.259	0.246	--	16.80	240	436	0.164	0.277
???????	1972	????????????	NL	MLB	???	3b	22		13	34	2	7	0	0	1	3	0	0	5	15	1	0	0	0	0	0.206	0.325	0.294	619	0.088	0.235	0.333	3.00	34.00	10	40	0.125	0.385
Wood	2007	Salt Lake	PCL	AAA	Ana	3b	22	-4.8	111	437	73	119	27	1	23	77	10	1	45	120	1	0	0	5	10	0.272	0.338	0.497	835	0.224	0.348	0.321	2.67	19.00	217	488	0.092	0.249
Wood	2007	Los Angeles Angels	AL	MLB	ana	3b	22		13	33	2	5	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	12	0	0	0	0	0	0.152	0.152	0.273	425	0.121	0.121	0.200	--	33.00	9	33	0.000	0.364

His development has certainly slowed in Triple-A but perhaps not as much as the whole stat line seems to indicate. It’s not broken down above but through May 31 of this past season Gallo was hitting .281 with 9 homers, 26 walks and only 30 strikeouts in 123 plate appearances. But then something changed. Perhaps it was due to his one day promotion to Texas on the 23^rd. Maybe the time off going back and forth fatigued him or maybe the brief time off threw off the groove he was enjoying. This happens sometimes to players with the All-Star Break layoff. Or maybe pitchers simply stopped throwing him fastballs. Whatever it was, there was a significant change in his production from that point onward. From June 1 to the end of July he hit .223 with 10 homers and 27 walks, but also 61 strikeouts in 176 plate appearances. At the end of July he was promoted again, only this time he got some playing time, although the only thing that succeeded in doing was exposing his weaknesses. He went back to Triple-A and over the rest of the minor league season struggled, hitting .226, 6 home runs, 15 walks but 59 strikeouts in 134 plate appearances. So what started out as a very promising season ended pretty much back at step one.

Mechanically speaking there was a difference between where he started and where he finished. At some point he developed a lag in his swing that wasn’t there in the spring which made it almost impossible for him to make regular contact. After he was sent down the second time, his major league zone contact rate stood at almost 70% which is almost acceptable for a power hitter of his ilk. But that is when his mechanics were at least decent. When they are off – as he displayed in his most recent stint in the majors – he simply can’t make contact. He ended up finishing with a career to date zone contact rate of 58.3%. That just won’t cut it in the majors. Russell Branyan has the lowest career mark on record since they’ve been keeping track of such things (2002-present) at 71.8%. Kelly Shoppach is second lowest at 73.7%. They are followed by names like Cust, Carter, Mark Reynolds, Jason LaRue, Wily Mo Pena, etc. and they sit between 74-77% and none of them come close to matching Gallo’s swinging strike rate of 22.5%. This really shows how much farther Gallo has to go just to have a chance to hit regularly. He really is the ultimate hit-or-miss player. However, that is not to say that significant improvements can’t be gained. In his first exposure to major league pitching, Jose Bautista’s contact rate was 66% and he was striking out over 40% of the time, albeit over a limited timeframe. Likewise, Jayson Werth struggled with both making contact on pitches inside the zone with a 66% zone contact rate and a K rate of 43% during his second season. However, they are the rare exceptions to overcome this; almost all of the other names with those same characteristics faded into minor league lore. In October of this year, Gallo was sent to Arizona presumably to work on hitting mechanics at their spring training facility, and then was sent to the Venezuelan Winter League to see how well the changes worked. Hopefully we’ll see positive results quickly. I still believe using a shorter and thus more controllable bat would help as well.

Interestingly enough, his struggles reminded me of another slugger from a different era who also got off to a very rough start. I’m sure many will laugh when I name him as a possible comp, but there is some method to the madness. This “comp” did not hit well at Double A after he was drafted out of college, yet the following year was promoted to Triple-A anyway. He (???????) rewarded his big club’s good faith by posting a strong season that merited a September call-up. The call-up did not go well. Looking at his walk and strikeout rates you can see some similarities to those of Gallo. Put them in league context and they mirror even closer. In 1972 the league average for walks was around 9%, and for strikeouts it was around 15%. By comparison, this hitter was well above league average in both categories: 50% above in walk rate and more than 100% in K rate. Currently the league average is about 8.5% walk rate and about 21.5% strikeout rate, which puts Gallo’s age 21 season pretty close to his old school doppelganger’s when considering league context.

If you expand OSD’s (Old School Doppelganger) first exposure from 1971 to the first part of 1972, you’ll find that his first 100 or so major league at bats produced a .211 average, .324 on base, .311 slugging, a walk rate of 13.3% and a strikeout rate of 36.5%. That’s basically the 1972 version of Gallo.

Unfortunately we don’t have a more granular breakdown of his performance like we do with Gallo. Metrics like swinging strike rate and in-zone contact rate have only been around a few years and there’s really no way to go back and find that data for this hitter unless someone decides to watch video tape of every game from that era and score those games. Hopefully the technology will be available one day to do that automatically. Regardless, the absence of that data prevents anyone from further aligning Gallo with him but I thought the comparison was at least thought provoking.

The name of Joey Gallo’s possible historical comp? Mike Schmidt. After coaching Gallo during the 2013-14 offseason, Jason Giambi came away from his sessions very impressed, suggesting that he could in time hit .300, something Schmidt did once in his career. That is probably a bit of overly-enthusiastic hyperbole to both give his student confidence and to make people aware that we’re seeing something potentially special. But given Gallo’s wild swings in performance from year to year (pun intended) it’s hard to rule anything out. Giambi himself hit .300 in four seasons so he does know what that looks like.

The most common comparable for Gallo to date has been Russell Branyan, which seems the most likely scenario. And assuming he can avoid the injury bug that plagued Branyan his entire career, that might play out quite well. Branyan himself posted some interesting numbers in his first 550 at bats: 37 HRs, 98 RBI, 229 Ks with a .231/.316/.493 batting line.

And Chris Carter: 32 HRs, 81 RBI, 220 Ks, .213/.306/.423

And Jack Cust: 31 HRs, 101 RBI, 223 Ks, .247/.389/.473

And Chris Davis: 32 HRs, 88 RBI, 201 Ks, .243/.294/.483

So what to expect from Gallo in 2017? Assuming he follows a similar line to his closest comps for his next 425 at bats, optimistically we should expect roughly 25 homers, 75-80 RBI, a record breaking number of strikeouts and a batting line somewhere around .220/.290.470. The following table shows the hitters I’ve compared him with and what they did their age 23 seasons.

Player	Year	Team	Lg	Level	Org	Pos	Age	Diff	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	IBB	SH	SF	GDP	AVE	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	SecA	BABIP	K/BB	AB/HR	TB	PA	BB%	K%
Baez	2016	Iowa	PCL	AAA	chn	ss	23	-3.6	4	15	3	4	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.267	0.267	0.467	734	0.200	0.267	0.300	--	15.00	7	15	0.000	0.267
Baez	2016	Chicago Cubs	NL	MLB	chn	3b	23		142	421	50	115	19	1	14	59	12	3	15	108	11	1	2	3	8	0.273	0.313	0.423	736	0.150	0.207	0.334	7.20	30.10	178	452	0.033	0.248
Branyan	1999	Buffalo	IL	AAA	cle	3b	23	-3.8	109	395	51	82	11	1	30	67	8	3	52	187	4	2	0	2	5	0.208	0.305	0.468	773	0.261	0.405	0.289	3.60	13.20	185	453	0.115	0.418
Branyan	1999	Cleveland Indians	AL	MLB	cle	3b	23		11	38	4	8	2	0	1	6	0	0	3	19	1	0	0	0	0	0.211	0.286	0.342	628	0.132	0.211	0.389	6.33	38.00	13	42	0.071	0.463
C Davis	2009	Oklahoma City	PCL	AAA	tex	3b	23	-3.9	44	165	27	54	12	1	6	30	0	1	25	39	2	2	0	2	7	0.327	0.418	0.521	939	0.194	0.339	0.393	1.56	27.50	86	194	0.129	0.205
C Davis	2009	Texas Rangers	AL	MLB	tex	1b	23		113	391	48	93	15	1	21	59	0	0	24	150	2	2	0	2	6	0.238	0.284	0.442	726	0.205	0.266	0.324	6.25	18.60	173	419	0.057	0.361
C Johnson	2012	Trenton	East	AA	nya	lf	23	-2.1	59	221	29	54	11	1	16	37	0	0	30	90	1	2	0	1	3	0.244	0.336	0.520	856	0.276	0.412	0.328	3.00	13.80	115	253	0.119	0.359
Carter	2010	Sacramento	PCL	AAA	oak	1b	23	-3.8	125	465	92	120	29	2	31	94	1	1	73	138	8	1	0	5	8	0.258	0.365	0.529	894	0.271	0.428	0.296	1.89	15.00	246	551	0.132	0.257
Carter	2010	Oakland Athletics	AL	MLB	oak	lf	23		24	70	8	13	1	0	3	7	1	0	7	21	0	0	0	1	3	0.186	0.256	0.329	585	0.143	0.257	0.213	3.00	23.30	23	78	0.090	0.273
Cust	2002	Colorado Springs	PCL	AAA	col	of	23	-4.2	105	359	74	95	24	0	23	55	6	3	83	121	5	4	0	3	5	0.265	0.407	0.524	931	0.259	0.499	0.330	1.46	15.60	188	450	0.184	0.274
Cust	2002	Colorado Rockies	NL	MLB	col	lf	23		35	65	8	11	2	0	1	8	0	1	12	32	0	0	0	1	3	0.169	0.295	0.246	541	0.077	0.246	0.303	2.67	65.00	16	78	0.154	0.416
Dunn	2003	Cincinnati Reds	NL	MLB	cin	lf	23		116	381	70	82	12	1	27	57	8	2	74	126	10	8	0	4	4	0.215	0.354	0.465	819	0.249	0.459	0.237	1.70	14.10	177	469	0.158	0.277
Halman	2011	Tacoma	PCL	AAA	sea	cf	23	-3.9	40	177	35	53	14	1	3	15	11	1	13	53	3	0	1	0	4	0.299	0.358	0.441	799	0.141	0.271	0.413	4.08	59.00	78	194	0.067	0.279
Halman	2011	Seattle Mariners	AL	MLB	sea		23		35	87	7	20	2	1	2	6	5	1	2	32	1	0	1	0	2	0.230	0.256	0.345	601	0.115	0.184	0.340	16.00	43.50	30	91	0.022	0.360
Howard	2003	Clearwater	FSL	A+	phi	1b	23	-0.2	130	490	67	149	32	1	23	82	0	0	50	151	8	9	0	5	12	0.304	0.374	0.514	888	0.210	0.312	0.393	3.02	21.30	252	553	0.090	0.280
McPherson	2004	Arkansas	Tex	AA	ana	3b	23	-1.8	68	262	53	84	17	6	20	69	6	5	34	74	4	5	0	2	2	0.321	0.404	0.660	1064	0.340	0.473	0.376	2.18	13.10	173	302	0.113	0.250
McPherson	2004	Salt Lake	PCL	AAA	ana	3b	23	-4.2	67	259	54	81	19	8	20	57	6	3	23	95	1	4	0	1	5	0.313	0.370	0.680	1050	0.367	0.467	0.421	4.13	13.00	176	284	0.081	0.337
McPherson	2004	Anaheim Angels	AL	MLB	ana	3b	23		16	40	5	9	1	0	3	6	1	0	3	17	0	0	0	0	0	0.225	0.279	0.475	754	0.250	0.350	0.300	5.67	13.30	19	43	0.070	0.395
Nash	2014	Corpus Christi	Tex	AA	hou	1b	23	-1.5	84	273	46	62	4	0	22	49	1	1	34	112	9	1	3	2	6	0.227	0.330	0.484	814	0.256	0.381	0.284	3.29	12.40	132	321	0.106	0.365
Sano	2016	Rochester	IL	AAA	min	rf	23	-3.7	8	25	3	4	1	0	2	2	0	0	5	10	0	0	0	1	3	0.160	0.290	0.440	730	0.280	0.480	0.143	2.00	12.50	11	31	0.161	0.333
Sano	2016	Minnesota Twins	AL	MLB	min	d	23		116	437	57	103	22	1	25	66	1	0	54	178	1	0	3	1	8	0.236	0.320	0.462	782	0.227	0.352	0.332	3.30	17.50	202	496	0.109	0.363
Schmidt	1973	Philadelphia Phillies	NL	MLB	phi	3b	23		132	367	43	72	11	0	18	52	8	2	62	136	9	3	1	4	8	0.196	0.324	0.373	697	0.177	0.362	0.249	2.19	20.40	137	443	0.140	0.317
Wood	2008	Salt Lake	PCL	AAA	ana	ss	23	-3.9	103	395	82	117	21	2	31	84	6	5	45	104	6	1	0	2	9	0.296	0.375	0.595	970	0.299	0.415	0.328	2.31	12.70	235	448	0.100	0.236
Wood	2008	Los Angeles Angels	AL	MLB	ana	3b-ss	23		55	150	12	30	4	0	5	13	4	0	4	43	1	0	1	1	3	0.200	0.224	0.327	551	0.127	0.180	0.243	10.75	30.00	49	157	0.025	0.279

As you can see, those that played in the majors were mostly underwhelming. It’s not until their age 24 seasons that we really begin to see the players we picture when we hear their names, which bodes well for Miguel Sano and Javier Baez in 2017. As for Gallo? Maybe he arrives earlier than anticipated and breaks through in 2017. I suspect he’ll spend at least a little time back at Triple-A next year with a possible mid-season promotion, and 2018 will be the year we see what he can do. Where he goes from there is anyone’s guess.