The Compleat Gallo

October 21, 2016

 

 

I have to say that I have never been so intrigued with the future of a player than I am with Joey Gallo. The reason is that in this day and age of seeing the repackaging of everything that has happened before, we might be seeing something entirely new: a player who truly embodies the three true outcomes of a hitter. No one in history has his combination of tremendous power, the ability to draw a walk and the inability to make consistent contact. And believe me, I’ve looked. Most players generate comp scores – which is basically a picture of who the player’s statistical legacy will resemble - that have at least one player in the neighborhood of 95% similarity. Most have numerous statistical dopplegangers. Gallo’s closest comp scored a 65%. His combination of power, strikeouts and walks is as unique as it gets.

 

What follows is a comparison to a number of the wildest swinging/disciplined sluggers on which there is strong information. The list includes a wide range of successes and failures: Chris Davis, Chris Carter, Adam Dunn, Russell Branyan, Jack Cust, Ryan Howard, Javier Baez, Mitch Moreland, Greg Halman, Telvin Nash, Miguel Sano, Brandon Wood, Dallas McPherson, Cody Johnson, etc... you get the idea.

 

What will be obvious from the numbers is that Gallo’s contact rate in the majors is worse than all of them (at least the ones who made it that far), although it's very close to that of Javier Baez when he first came up. His strikeout rate is worse as well, in some cases more than 10% worse even in the minors. There's no question he has been dangerously insufficient making contact. However, he is younger than most of them were at the same levels and he showed significant improvement this year. And his swinging strike rate is very close to that of Branyan and Carter when they first arrived despite being two years younger. His walk rate is better than all of them, much better in some cases. And then there's the power: roughly one in every three hits is a home run for his entire career including the majors. 

 

So what can we expect from Gallo next year and beyond?

 

I decide to break it down by age so with each table I’ll follow with some commentary.

 

Player

Year

Team

Lg

Level

Org

Pos

Age

Diff

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

CS

BB

SO

HBP

IBB

SH

SF

GDP

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

ISO

secA

Babip

K/BB

AB/HR

TB

PA

BB%

K%

Baez

2011

Azl Cubs

Ariz

Rk

chn

ss

18

-3.1

3

12

2

4

2

0

0

0

2

0

0

2

0

0

0

0

0

0.333

0.333

0.500

833

0.167

0.333

0.400

--

--

6

12

0.000

0.167

Baez

2011

Boise

Nwst

A-

chn

ss

18

-3.4

2

6

0

1

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

2

0

0

0

0

0

0.167

0.167

0.167

334

0.000

0.000

0.250

--

--

1

6

0.000

0.333

Branyan

1994

Burlington

App

Rk

cle

3B

18

-2

55

171

21

36

10

0

5

13

4

2

25

64

4

2

0

1

3

0.211

0.323

0.357

680

0.146

0.304

0.301

2.56

34.20

61

201

0.124

0.327

C Johnson

2007

Danville

App

Rk

atl

Of

18

-2.6

63

243

51

74

18

5

17

57

7

0

26

72

1

0

0

0

1

0.305

0.374

0.630

1004

0.325

0.461

0.370

2.77

14.30

153

270

0.096

0.268

Carter

2005

Bristol

App

Rk

cha

31

18

-2.7

65

233

33

66

17

0

10

37

2

1

17

64

8

0

2

2

4

0.283

0.350

0.485

835

0.202

0.279

0.348

3.76

23.30

113

262

0.065

0.256

Cust

1997

Azl Diamondbacks

Ariz

Rk

ari

of

18

-1.3

35

121

26

37

11

1

3

33

2

0

31

39

0

0

0

0

4

0.306

0.447

0.488

935

0.182

0.455

0.430

1.26

40.30

59

152

0.204

0.257

Dunn

1998

Billings

Pio

Rk

cin

of

18

-2.3

34

125

26

36

3

1

4

13

4

2

22

23

3

1

0

1

3

0.288

0.404

0.424

828

0.136

0.328

0.323

1.05

31.30

53

151

0.146

0.156

Gallo

2012

Azl Rangers

Ariz

Rk

tex

3b

18

-2.8

43

150

44

44

10

1

18

43

6

0

37

52

3

1

0

3

0

0.293

0.435

0.733

1168

0.440

0.727

0.313

1.41

8.30

110

193

0.192

0.278

Gallo

2012

Spokane

Nwst

A-

tex

3b

18

-3.4

16

56

9

12

2

0

4

9

0

0

11

26

0

2

0

0

0

0.214

0.343

0.464

807

0.250

0.446

0.308

2.36

14.00

26

67

0.164

0.388

Halman

2006

Everett

Nwst

A-

sea

of

18

-3.4

28

116

19

30

6

4

5

15

10

4

3

32

3

1

1

0

2

0.259

0.295

0.509

804

0.250

0.328

0.316

10.67

23.20

59

123

0.024

0.269

McPherson

1999

The Citadel

Socon

College

 

 

18

 

31

87

14

21

4

0

1

14

0

0

11

30

1

 

1

1

 

0.241

0.330

0.322

652

0.080

0.207

0.351

2.73

87.00

28

101

0.109

0.306

Nash

2009

GCL Astros

GCL

Rk

hou

lf

18

-2.8

40

142

15

31

10

1

1

20

1

2

12

45

1

0

0

2

6

0.218

0.280

0.324

604

0.106

0.183

0.306

3.75

142.00

46

157

0.076

0.292

Sano

2011

Elizabethton

App

Rk

min

3b

18

-2.9

66

267

58

78

18

7

20

59

5

4

23

77

2

0

0

1

4

0.292

0.352

0.637

989

0.345

0.434

0.339

3.35

13.40

170

293

0.078

0.266

Wood

2003

Provo

Pio

Rk

ana

ss

18

-2.8

42

162

25

45

13

2

5

31

1

1

16

48

2

0

0

1

2

0.278

0.348

0.475

823

0.198

0.296

0.364

3.00

32.40

77

181

0.088

0.270

Wood

2003

Azl Angels

Ariz

Rk

ana

ss

18

-2.5

19

78

14

24

8

2

0

13

3

0

4

15

2

0

0

2

2

0.308

0.349

0.462

811

0.154

0.244

0.369

3.75

--

36

86

0.047

0.183

 

So here is our first inkling that we might be looking at something special. Gallo was drafted out of high school and sent to the Arizona Short Season League where he broke the league record for homers. Most high school hitters are considered good power prospects if they hit 9-10 homers in a season, or maybe 30 in a high school career; Gallo hit 67. Notice the other players on the list who also have a lot of homers; see how many more at bats they have? Close to 100 more than Gallo. Also notice his walk rate; it more than doubles most of the hitters on the list. The strikeout rate? Yes, we’re seeing the whole enchilada right away.

 

 

Player

Year

Team

Lg

Level

Org

Pos

Age

Diff

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

CS

BB

SO

HBP

IBB

SH

SF

GDP

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

ISO

secA

Babip

K/BB

AB/HR

TB

PA

BB%

K%

Baez

2012

Peoria

Midw

A

chn

ss

19

-3

57

213

41

71

10

5

12

33

20

3

9

48

10

0

0

3

3

0.333

0.383

0.596

979

0.263

0.385

0.378

5.33

17.80

127

235

0.038

0.216

Baez

2012

Daytona

FSL

A+

chn

ss

19

-4.6

23

80

9

15

3

1

4

13

4

2

5

21

1

1

0

0

1

0.188

0.244

0.400

644

0.213

0.300

0.200

4.20

20.00

32

86

0.058

0.247

Branyan

1995

Columbus

SAL

A

cle

3b

19

-2.5

76

277

46

71

8

6

19

55

1

1

27

120

3

2

0

3

6

0.256

0.326

0.534

860

0.278

0.375

0.369

4.44

14.60

148

310

0.087

0.395

C Johnson

2008

Rome

SAL

A

atl

of

19

-3.2

127

468

62

118

26

1

26

89

8

3

40

177

0

0

0

6

8

0.252

0.307

0.479

786

0.226

0.323

0.339

4.43

18.00

224

514

0.078

0.348

Carter

2006

Great Falls

Pio

Rk

cha

1b

19

-2.2

69

251

37

75

21

1

15

59

4

4

34

70

8

5

0

1

3

0.299

0.398

0.570

968

0.271

0.406

0.359

2.06

16.70

143

294

0.116

0.246

Carter

2006

Kannapolis

SAL

A

cha

1b

19

-3.2

13

46

4

6

3

0

1

5

0

0

5

17

1

0

0

0

1

0.130

0.231

0.261

492

0.130

0.239

0.179

3.40

46.00

12

52

0.096

0.333

Cust

1998

Lethbridge

Pio

Rk

ari

of

19

-1.3

73

223

75

77

20

2

11

56

15

8

86

71

4

3

0

2

3

0.345

0.530

0.601

1131

0.256

0.673

0.462

0.83

20.30

134

315

0.273

0.230

Cust

1998

South Bend

Midw

A

ari

1b

19

-2.6

16

62

5

15

3

0

0

4

0

1

5

20

0

1

0

1

0

0.242

0.294

0.290

584

0.048

0.113

0.349

4.00

--

18

68

0.074

0.299

Dunn

1999

Rockford

Midw

A

cin

of

19

-2.7

93

313

62

96

16

2

11

44

21

10

46

64

10

3

0

3

6

0.307

0.409

0.476

885

0.169

0.351

0.353

1.39

28.50

149

372

0.124

0.178

Gallo

2013

Azl Rangers

Ariz

Rk

tex

3b

19

-1.9

5

19

4

7

4

0

2

10

1

0

2

7

0

0

0

0

0

0.368

0.429

0.895

1324

0.526

0.684

0.500

3.50

9.50

17

21

0.095

0.333

Gallo

2013

Hickory

SAL

A

tex

3b

19

-3.3

106

392

82

96

19

5

38

78

14

1

48

165

5

1

0

1

2

0.245

0.334

0.610

944

0.365

0.520

0.305

3.44

10.30

239

446

0.108

0.375

Halman

2007

Everett

Nwst

A-

sea

of

19

-2.2

62

238

37

73

19

1

16

37

16

8

21

85

4

4

1

1

2

0.307

0.371

0.597

968

0.290

0.412

0.413

4.05

14.90

142

265

0.079

0.328

Halman

2007

Wisconsin

Midw

A

sea

of

19

-3

52

187

26

34

5

0

4

15

15

7

8

77

5

0

1

1

1

0.182

0.234

0.273

507

0.091

0.176

0.280

9.63

46.80

51

202

0.040

0.395

McPherson

2000

The Citadel

NCAA

College

so

 

19

 

59

233

50

88

18

3

9

55

3

1

25

42

2

 

2

2

2

0.378

0.439

0.597

1036

0.219

0.335

0.429

1.68

25.90

139

264

0.095

0.163

Nash

2010

Greeneville

App

Rk

hou

lf

19

-2.1

57

200

30

53

12

1

12

39

1

1

25

64

1

0

0

1

5

0.265

0.348

0.515

863

0.250

0.375

0.328

2.56

16.70

103

227

0.110

0.284

Nash

2010

Tri City

NYPL

A-

hou

lf

19

-2.5

4

13

2

4

1

1

1

1

0

1

0

7

0

0

0

0

0

0.308

0.308

0.769

1077

0.462

0.385

0.600

--

13.00

10

13

0.000

0.538

Sano

2012

Beloit

Midw

A

min

3b

19

-3

129

457

75

118

28

4

28

100

8

3

80

144

8

4

0

8

10

0.258

0.373

0.521

894

0.263

0.449

0.307

1.80

16.30

238

553

0.145

0.268

Wood

2004

Cedar Rapids

Midw

A

ana

ss

19

-2.9

125

478

65

120

30

5

11

64

21

5

46

117

5

3

4

2

8

0.251

0.322

0.404

726

0.153

0.282

0.310

2.54

43.50

193

535

0.086

0.223

 

Another pattern is beginning to emerge: upon first exposure to a level he struggles mightily but makes adjustments and the second time through just mashes the ball. Again he is among the leaders on this board in walk rate as well as one of the youngest compared to his competition, both promising signs for a bright future. It was after this season that Gallo worked with Jason Giambi on his hitting, as well as Troy Tulowitzki on his defensive footwork.

 

 

Player

Year

Team

Lg

Level

Org

Pos

Age

Diff

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

CS

BB

SO

HBP

IBB

SH

SF

GDP

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

ISO

secA

Babip

K/BB

AB/HR

TB

PA

BB%

K%

Baez

2013

Daytona

FSL

A+

chn

ss

20

-3.8

76

299

59

82

19

4

17

57

12

2

21

78

11

0

0

6

8

0.274

0.338

0.535

873

0.261

0.365

0.310

3.71

17.60

160

337

0.062

0.244

Baez

2013

Tennessee

Sou

AA

chn

ss

20

-4.7

54

218

39

64

15

0

20

54

8

2

19

69

0

2

0

3

3

0.294

0.346

0.638

984

0.344

0.459

0.333

3.63

10.90

139

240

0.079

0.291

Branyan

1996

Columbus

SAL

A

cle

3b

20

-1.4

130

482

102

129

20

4

40

106

7

4

62

166

5

5

0

3

4

0.268

0.355

0.575

930

0.307

0.442

0.319

2.68

12.10

277

552

0.112

0.305

C Davis

2006

Spokane

Nwst

A-

tex

of-1b

20

-1.4

69

253

38

70

18

1

15

42

2

3

23

65

3

2

0

1

4

0.277

0.343

0.534

877

0.257

0.344

0.316

2.83

16.90

135

280

0.082

0.236

C Johnson

2009

Myrtle Beach

Caro

A+

atl

lf

20

-3.3

122

422

59

102

18

1

32

84

10

7

64

171

4

7

0

3

8

0.242

0.345

0.517

862

0.275

0.434

0.315

2.67

13.20

218

493

0.130

0.352

C Johnson

2009

Mississippi

Sou

AA

atl

lf

20

-4.6

6

22

2

4

0

0

0

3

1

0

3

9

0

0

0

0

0

0.182

0.280

0.182

462

0.000

0.182

0.308

3.00

--

4

25

0.120

0.360

Carter

2007

Kannapolis

SAL

A

cha

1b

20

-2.2

126

467

84

136

27

3

25

93

3

2

67

112

6

3

0

5

6

0.291

0.383

0.522

905

0.231

0.377

0.331

1.67

18.70

244

545

0.123

0.210

Cust

1999

High Desert

Calif

A+

ari

of

20

-2.9

125

455

107

152

42

3

32

112

1

4

96

145

2

2

0

3

5

0.334

0.450

0.651

1101

0.316

0.521

0.427

1.51

14.20

296

556

0.173

0.263

Dunn

2000

Dayton

Midw

A

cin

of

20

-1.8

122

420

101

118

29

1

16

79

24

5

100

101

12

4

0

6

10

0.281

0.428

0.469

897

0.188

0.471

0.330

1.01

26.30

197

538

0.186

0.194

Gallo

2014

Myrtle Beach

Caro

A+

tex

3b

20

-3.2

58

189

53

61

9

3

21

50

5

3

51

64

2

3

0

4

3

0.323

0.463

0.735

1198

0.413

0.693

0.370

1.25

9.00

139

246

0.207

0.267

Gallo

2014

Frisco

Tex

AA

tex

3b

20

-4.5

68

250

44

58

10

0

21

56

2

0

36

115

3

4

1

1

0

0.232

0.334

0.524

858

0.292

0.444

0.322

3.19

11.90

131

291

0.124

0.402

Halman

2008

High Desert

Calif

A+

sea

of

20

-3.3

67

257

52

69

15

3

19

53

23

1

16

76

5

1

1

3

6

0.268

0.320

0.572

892

0.304

0.451

0.303

4.75

13.50

147

282

0.057

0.278

Halman

2008

West Tennessee

Sou

AA

sea

of

20

-4.9

61

235

43

65

14

2

10

30

8

6

16

66

4

2

0

1

6

0.277

0.332

0.481

813

0.204

0.281

0.344

4.13

23.50

113

256

0.063

0.263

McPherson

2001

Provo

Pio

Rk

ana

3b

20

-0.4

31

124

30

49

11

0

5

29

1

0

12

22

0

0

0

0

2

0.395

0.449

0.605

1054

0.210

0.315

0.454

1.83

24.80

75

136

0.088

0.162

Nash

2011

GCL Astros

GCL

Rk

hou

1b

20

-1

5

13

5

5

2

0

0

0

0

0

3

2

0

0

0

0

0

0.385

0.500

0.538

1038

0.154

0.385

0.455

0.67

--

7

16

0.188

0.125

Nash

2011

Lexington

SAL

A

hou

1b

20

-2.1

73

268

41

72

16

0

14

37

2

0

40

103

6

3

0

2

6

0.269

0.373

0.485

858

0.216

0.373

0.379

2.58

19.10

130

316

0.127

0.334

Sano

2013

Fort Myers

FSL

A+

min

3b

20

-3.8

56

206

51

68

15

2

16

48

9

2

29

61

6

2

0

2

2

0.330

0.424

0.655

1079

0.325

0.500

0.397

2.10

12.90

135

243

0.119

0.260

Sano

2013

New Britain

East

AA

min

3b

20

-5.1

67

233

35

55

15

3

19

55

2

1

36

81

4

2

0

3

6

0.236

0.344

0.571

915

0.335

0.494

0.265

2.25

12.30

133

276

0.130

0.301

Wood

2005

Rancho Cucamonga

Calif

A+

ana

ss

20

-3.3

130

536

109

172

51

4

43

115

7

3

48

128

7

5

2

2

12

0.321

0.383

0.672

1055

0.351

0.448

0.351

2.67

12.50

360

595

0.081

0.219

Wood

2005

Salt Lake

PCL

AAA

ana

ss

20

-7.1

4

19

1

6

2

1

0

1

0

0

0

6

0

0

0

0

0

0.316

0.316

0.526

842

0.211

0.211

0.462

--

--

10

19

0.000

0.316

 

The work paid off immediately facing a tougher league. What’s perhaps more impressive is that while in the Carolina League, his strikeout rate is rather ordinary. Here we’re starting to see some close parallels to the career of Jack Cust. He was also a hitter that teams didn’t know how to use. The biggest difference between the two, however, is that Gallo is athletic; Cust most definitely was not. I’ve attended or worked at least 600 games in my life and watched a thousand more on TV and Cust is the only player I have ever seen fail to score from third when no one was covering home plate. It happened in Baltimore against the Yankees and in a bizarre play the Yankee catcher was down the first base line and no one was covering home plate. Cust “dashed” home but was caught from behind and tagged by Aaron Boone who began the play at least three yards behind him.  Yes, he made up three yards in the span of less than 90 feet. That was Jack Cust. Why does this matter? Because athletic ability guarantees that Gallo will get more opportunities at the plate than Cust did. Managers were reluctant to use Cust because they could not use him in the field with any confidence; Gallo at least has a strong arm and can move well and has some position versatility as he’s played outfield and first base in addition to third.

 

 

Player

Year

Team

Lg

Level

Org

Pos

Age

Diff

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

CS

BB

SO

HBP

IBB

SH

SF

GDP

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

ISO

secA

Babip

K/BB

AB/HR

TB

PA

BB%

K%

Baez

2014

Iowa

PCL

AAA

chn

ss

21

-5.7

104

388

64

101

24

2

23

80

16

8

34

130

5

3

0

7

14

0.260

0.323

0.510

833

0.250

0.358

0.322

3.82

16.90

198

434

0.078

0.308

Baez

2014

Chicago Cubs

NL

MLB

chn

ss-2b

21

 

52

213

25

36

6

0

9

20

5

1

15

95

1

0

0

0

5

0.169

0.227

0.324

551

0.155

0.244

0.248

6.33

23.70

69

229

0.066

0.417

Branyan

1997

Kinston

Caro

A+

cle

3b

21

-1.7

83

297

59

86

26

2

27

75

3

1

52

94

5

4

0

5

9

0.290

0.398

0.663

1061

0.374

0.556

0.326

1.81

11.00

197

359

0.145

0.269

Branyan

1997

Akron

East

AA

cle

3b

21

-3.2

41

137

26

32

4

0

12

30

0

0

28

56

2

1

0

1

1

0.234

0.369

0.526

895

0.292

0.496

0.286

2.00

11.40

72

168

0.167

0.339

C Davis

2007

Bakersfield

Calif

A+

tex

3b

21

-2.4

99

386

69

115

28

3

24

93

3

3

22

123

5

2

0

5

8

0.298

0.340

0.573

913

0.275

0.332

0.373

5.59

16.10

221

418

0.053

0.301

C Davis

2007

Frisco

Tex

AA

tex

3b

21

-4.1

30

109

21

32

7

0

12

25

0

0

13

27

1

1

0

1

0

0.294

0.371

0.688

1059

0.394

0.514

0.282

2.08

9.10

75

124

0.105

0.221

C Johnson

2010

GCL Braves

GCL

Rk

atl

lf

21

0.2

6

20

5

5

0

0

2

4

1

1

2

8

0

0

0

0

0

0.250

0.318

0.550

868

0.300

0.400

0.300

4.00

10.00

11

22

0.091

0.364

C Johnson

2010

Myrtle Beach

Caro

A+

atl

lf

21

-2.2

25

91

12

24

4

0

6

25

2

2

10

29

0

2

0

1

1

0.264

0.333

0.505

838

0.242

0.352

0.316

2.90

15.20

46

102

0.098

0.287

C Johnson

2010

Mississippi

Sou

AA

atl

lf

21

-3.4

75

233

26

44

6

0

10

31

9

5

25

114

1

0

0

1

1

0.189

0.269

0.343

612

0.155

0.279

0.309

4.56

23.30

80

260

0.096

0.442

Carter

2008

Stockton

Calif

A+

oak

3b-1b

21

-2.3

137

506

101

131

32

4

39

104

4

0

77

156

7

2

0

6

7

0.259

0.361

0.569

930

0.310

0.470

0.290

2.03

13.00

288

596

0.129

0.268

Cust

2000

El Paso

Tex

AA

ari

of

21

-3.5

129

447

100

131

32

6

20

75

12

9

117

150

2

12

0

2

10

0.293

0.440

0.526

966

0.233

0.501

0.398

1.28

22.40

235

568

0.206

0.266

Dunn

2001

Chattanooga

Sou

AA

cin

of

21

-3.5

39

140

30

48

9

0

12

31

6

3

24

31

3

3

1

0

1

0.343

0.449

0.664

1113

0.321

0.514

0.371

1.29

11.70

93

168

0.143

0.189

Dunn

2001

Louisville

IL

AAA

cin

of

21

-6

55

210

44

69

13

0

20

53

5

1

38

51

5

3

0

1

1

0.329

0.441

0.676

1117

0.348

0.548

0.350

1.34

10.50

142

254

0.150

0.206

Dunn

2001

Cincinnati Reds

NL

MLB

cin

rf-lf

21

 

66

244

54

64

18

1

19

43

4

2

38

74

4

2

0

0

4

0.262

0.371

0.578

949

0.316

0.480

0.298

1.95

12.80

141

286

0.133

0.262

Gallo

2015

Frisco

Tex

AA

tex

3b

21

-3.7

34

121

21

38

10

1

9

31

1

0

24

49

0

0

0

1

1

0.314

0.425

0.636

1061

0.322

0.529

0.453

2.04

13.40

77

146

0.164

0.338

Gallo

2015

Round Rock

PCL

AAA

tex

3b

21

-5.7

53

200

20

39

9

0

14

32

1

0

27

90

0

2

0

1

3

0.195

0.289

0.450

739

0.255

0.395

0.258

3.33

14.30

90

228

0.118

0.396

Gallo

2015

Texas Rangers

AL

MLB

tex

lf-3b

21

 

36

108

16

22

3

1

6

14

3

0

15

57

0

3

0

0

0

0.204

0.301

0.417

718

0.213

0.380

0.356

3.80

18.00

45

123

0.122

0.463

Halman

2009

Azl Mariners

Ariz

Rk

sea

 

21

-0.2

3

11

1

2

0

1

0

2

0

0

2

8

0

0

0

0

0

0.182

0.308

0.364

672

0.182

0.364

0.667

4.00

--

4

13

0.154

0.615

Halman

2009

West Tennessee

Sou

AA

sea

cf-rf

21

-3.6

121

457

64

96

17

2

25

72

9

7

29

183

15

1

2

3

9

0.210

0.278

0.420

698

0.210

0.278

0.282

6.31

18.30

192

506

0.057

0.377

Howard

2001

Missouri State

NCAA

College

jr

 

21

 

58

225

45

61

15

1

13

54

12

0

40

74

 

 

 

 

 

0.271

0.381

0.520

901

0.249

0.480

0.348

1.85

17.30

117

265

0.151

0.279

Howard

2001

Batavia

NYPL

A-

phi

1b

21

-0.2

48

169

26

46

7

3

6

35

0

0

30

55

2

5

0

2

1

0.272

0.384

0.456

840

0.183

0.361

0.364

1.83

28.20

77

203

0.148

0.276

McPherson

2002

Cedar Rapids

Midw

A

ana

3b

21

-0.6

132

499

71

138

24

3

15

88

30

6

78

128

7

3

0

2

9

0.277

0.381

0.427

808

0.150

0.355

0.344

1.64

33.30

213

586

0.133

0.222

Nash

2012

Lancaster

Calif

A+

hou

lf

21

-2.6

106

393

61

88

19

0

29

75

0

1

47

198

7

0

0

2

10

0.224

0.316

0.494

810

0.270

0.387

0.351

4.21

13.60

194

449

0.105

0.450

???????

1971

???????

East

AA

???

 

21

 

74

237

27

50

7

1

8

31

3

3

27

66

4

 

0

0

 

0.211

0.302

0.350

652

0.139

0.139

0.183

--

29.60

83

237

0.101

0.250

Wood

2006

Arkansas

Tex

AA

ana

 

21

-3.6

118

453

74

125

42

4

25

83

19

3

54

149

6

1

1

8

10

0.276

0.355

0.552

907

0.276

0.430

0.348

2.76

18.10

250

522

0.103

0.294

 

The second time through Double A Frisco looks similar to his first run through High A Myrtle Beach but again we see the struggles upon his mid-season promotion. One concern about putting too much faith in minor league walk rates is that we don’t know if they are due to a discerning eye or pitchers who simply don’t want to risk throwing something well in the zone to a power-hitter like Gallo. And being as they are in Triple-A, they miss a lot sometimes by quite a bit. If the rate is due to the former we should see at least respectable contact rates in the majors. Not always, but usually. If it’s the latter, the contact rate becomes a much bigger concern. This is not uncommon and we’ve seen a number of highly regarded prospects with excellent walk rates crater when they were promoted to the majors. Jeremy Hermida comes to mind but there are others. He had brilliant walk numbers but was unable to make consistent enough contact to make major league pitchers respect his eye at the plate.

 

 

Player

Year

Team

Lg

Level

Org

Pos

Age

Diff

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

CS

BB

SO

HBP

IBB

SH

SF

GDP

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

ISO

secA

Babip

K/BB

AB/HR

TB

PA

BB%

K%

Baez

2015

Azl Cubs

Ariz

Rk

chn

ss

22

0.9

4

12

3

5

1

0

0

1

1

0

1

0

2

0

0

0

0

0.417

0.533

0.500

1033

0.083

0.250

0.417

0.00

--

6

15

0.067

0.000

Baez

2015

Iowa

PCL

AAA

chn

ss

22

-4.7

70

281

49

91

14

2

13

61

17

3

21

76

8

0

1

2

6

0.324

0.385

0.527

912

0.203

0.327

0.402

3.62

21.60

148

313

0.067

0.252

Baez

2015

Chicago Cubs

NL

MLB

chn

2b-3b

22

 

28

76

4

22

6

0

1

4

1

2

4

24

0

1

0

0

0

0.289

0.325

0.408

733

0.118

0.158

0.412

6.00

76.00

31

80

0.050

0.300

Branyan

1998

Akron

East

AA

cle

3b

22

-2.2

43

163

35

48

11

3

16

46

1

1

35

58

0

4

0

1

2

0.294

0.417

0.693

1110

0.399

0.613

0.356

1.66

10.20

113

199

0.176

0.293

Branyan

1998

Cleveland Indians

AL

MLB

cle

3b

22

 

1

4

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

0

0

0

0

0

0.000

0.000

0.000

0

0.000

0.000

0.000

--

--

0

4

0.000

0.500

C Davis

2008

Frisco

Tex

AA

tex

1b

22

-2.8

46

186

43

62

14

0

13

42

5

1

13

44

1

2

0

2

3

0.333

0.376

0.618

994

0.285

0.376

0.374

3.38

14.30

115

202

0.064

0.221

C Davis

2008

Oklahoma

PCL

AAA

tex

1b

22

-4.9

31

111

25

37

7

1

10

31

2

0

13

29

1

1

0

2

3

0.333

0.402

0.685

1087

0.351

0.486

0.365

2.23

11.10

76

127

0.102

0.234

C Davis

2008

Texas Rangers

AL

MLB

tex

1b-3b

22

 

80

295

51

84

23

2

17

55

1

2

20

88

1

1

0

1

5

0.285

0.331

0.549

880

0.264

0.329

0.351

4.40

17.40

162

317

0.063

0.279

C Johnson

2011

Tampa

FSL

A+

nya

lf

22

-1.7

39

135

26

44

10

1

6

22

0

0

11

56

3

0

0

1

2

0.326

0.387

0.548

935

0.222

0.304

0.514

5.09

22.50

74

150

0.073

0.384

C Johnson

2011

Trenton

East

AA

nya

lf

22

-3.2

74

297

37

67

16

1

15

45

1

0

20

138

2

0

0

2

4

0.226

0.277

0.438

715

0.212

0.283

0.356

6.90

19.80

130

321

0.062

0.435

Carter

2009

Midland

Tex

AA

oak

1b

22

-2.7

125

490

108

165

41

2

24

101

13

5

82

119

11

2

0

10

11

0.337

0.435

0.576

1011

0.239

0.422

0.395

1.45

20.40

282

593

0.138

0.208

Carter

2009

Sacramento

PCL

AAA

oak

1b-lf

22

-4.9

13

54

7

14

2

0

4

14

0

1

3

14

0

0

0

1

1

0.259

0.293

0.519

812

0.259

0.296

0.270

4.67

13.50

28

58

0.052

0.246

Cust

2001

Tucson

PCL

AAA

ari

of

22

-5.2

135

442

81

123

24

2

27

79

6

3

102

160

5

3

0

5

10

0.278

0.415

0.525

940

0.247

0.484

0.369

1.57

16.40

232

554

0.184

0.294

Cust

2001

Arizona Diamondbacks

NL

MLB

ari

lf

22

 

3

2

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0.500

0.667

0.500

1167

0.000

0.500

0.500

0.00

--

1

3

0.333

0.000

Dunn

2002

Cincinnati Reds

NL

MLB

cin

lf

22

 

158

535

84

133

28

2

26

71

19

9

128

170

9

13

1

3

8

0.249

0.400

0.454

854

0.206

0.464

0.313

1.33

20.60

243

676

0.189

0.256

Gallo

2016

Round Rock

PCL

AAA

tex

3b

22

-4.6

102

359

71

86

17

6

25

66

2

0

68

150

5

0

1

4

2

0.240

0.365

0.529

894

0.290

0.485

0.324

2.21

14.40

190

437

0.156

0.351

Gallo

2016

Texas Rangers

AL

MLB

tex

3b

22

 

17

25

2

1

0

0

1

1

0

0

5

19

0

0

0

0

0

0.040

0.200

0.160

360

0.120

0.250

0.000

3.80

25.00

4

30

0.167

0.633

Halman

2010

Tacoma

PCL

AAA

sea

cf

22

-4.8

112

424

82

103

21

4

33

80

15

4

37

169

4

0

0

0

8

0.243

0.310

0.545

855

0.302

0.415

0.315

4.57

12.80

231

465

0.080

0.367

Halman

2010

Seattle Mariners

AL

MLB

sea

lf-cf

22

 

9

29

1

4

1

0

0

3

1

0

1

11

0

0

0

0

0

0.138

0.167

0.172

339

0.034

0.103

0.222

11.00

--

5

30

0.033

0.367

Howard

2002

Lakewood

SAL

A

phi

1b

22

0.2

135

493

56

138

20

6

19

87

5

4

66

145

5

13

1

5

9

0.280

0.367

0.460

827

0.181

0.316

0.356

2.20

25.90

227

570

0.116

0.259

McPherson

2003

Rancho Cucamonga

Calif

A+

ana

3b

22

-1.4

77

292

65

90

21

6

18

59

12

6

41

79

6

2

0

0

4

0.308

0.404

0.606

1010

0.298

0.459

0.369

1.93

16.20

177

339

0.121

0.237

McPherson

2003

Arkansas

Tex

AA

ana

3b

22

-2.9

28

102

22

32

9

1

5

27

4

0

19

25

1

4

0

0

4

0.314

0.426

0.569

995

0.255

0.480

0.375

1.32

20.40

58

122

0.156

0.207

Nash

2013

Lancaster

Calif

A+

hou

1b

22

-1.7

62

228

43

56

10

0

16

48

1

0

37

93

3

0

0

1

6

0.246

0.357

0.500

857

0.254

0.421

0.333

2.51

14.30

114

269

0.138

0.351

Sano

2015

Chattanooga

Sou

AA

min

3b

22

-2.7

66

241

55

66

18

1

15

48

5

1

38

68

3

2

0

4

5

0.274

0.374

0.544

918

0.270

0.444

0.315

1.79

16.10

131

286

0.133

0.244

Sano

2015

Minnesota Twins

AL

MLB

min

dh

22

 

80

279

46

75

17

1

18

52

1

1

53

119

1

1

0

2

4

0.269

0.385

0.530

915

0.262

0.452

0.396

2.25

15.50

148

335

0.158

0.358

???????

1972

??????

PCL

AAA

???

 

22

 

131

436

80

127

23

6

26

91

6

2

87

145

2

 

3

3

 

0.291

0.409

0.550

960

0.259

0.259

0.246

--

16.80

240

436

0.164

0.277

???????

1972

????????????

NL

MLB

???

3b

22

 

13

34

2

7

0

0

1

3

0

0

5

15

1

0

0

0

0

0.206

0.325

0.294

619

0.088

0.235

0.333

3.00

34.00

10

40

0.125

0.385

Wood

2007

Salt Lake

PCL

AAA

Ana

3b

22

-4.8

111

437

73

119

27

1

23

77

10

1

45

120

1

0

0

5

10

0.272

0.338

0.497

835

0.224

0.348

0.321

2.67

19.00

217

488

0.092

0.249

Wood

2007

Los Angeles Angels

AL

MLB

ana

3b

22

 

13

33

2

5

1

0

1

3

0

0

0

12

0

0

0

0

0

0.152

0.152

0.273

425

0.121

0.121

0.200

--

33.00

9

33

0.000

0.364

 

His development has certainly slowed in Triple-A but perhaps not as much as the whole stat line seems to indicate. It’s not broken down above but through May 31 of this past season Gallo was hitting .281 with 9 homers, 26 walks and only 30 strikeouts in 123 plate appearances. But then something changed. Perhaps it was due to his one day promotion to Texas on the 23rd. Maybe the time off going back and forth fatigued him or maybe the brief time off threw off the groove he was enjoying. This happens sometimes to players with the All-Star Break layoff. Or maybe pitchers simply stopped throwing him fastballs. Whatever it was, there was a significant change in his production from that point onward. From June 1 to the end of July he hit .223 with 10 homers and 27 walks, but also 61 strikeouts in 176 plate appearances. At the end of July he was promoted again, only this time he got some playing time, although the only thing that succeeded in doing was exposing his weaknesses. He went back to Triple-A and over the rest of the minor league season struggled, hitting .226, 6 home runs, 15 walks but 59 strikeouts in 134 plate appearances. So what started out as a very promising season ended pretty much back at step one.

 

Mechanically speaking there was a difference between where he started and where he finished. At some point he developed a lag in his swing that wasn’t there in the spring which made it almost impossible for him to make regular contact. After he was sent down the second time, his major league zone contact rate stood at almost 70% which is almost acceptable for a power hitter of his ilk. But that is when his mechanics were at least decent. When they are off – as he displayed in his most recent stint in the majors – he simply can’t make contact. He ended up finishing with a career to date zone contact rate of 58.3%. That just won’t cut it in the majors. Russell Branyan has the lowest career mark on record since they’ve been keeping track of such things (2002-present) at 71.8%. Kelly Shoppach is second lowest at 73.7%. They are followed by names like Cust, Carter, Mark Reynolds, Jason LaRue, Wily Mo Pena, etc. and they sit between 74-77% and none of them come close to matching Gallo’s swinging strike rate of 22.5%. This really shows how much farther Gallo has to go just to have a chance to hit regularly. He really is the ultimate hit-or-miss player. However, that is not to say that significant improvements can’t be gained. In his first exposure to major league pitching, Jose Bautista’s contact rate was 66% and he was striking out over 40% of the time, albeit over a limited timeframe. Likewise, Jayson Werth struggled with both making contact on pitches inside the zone with a 66% zone contact rate and a K rate of 43% during his second season. However, they are the rare exceptions to overcome this; almost all of the other names with those same characteristics faded into minor league lore.  In October of this year, Gallo was sent to Arizona presumably to work on hitting mechanics at their spring training facility, and then was sent to the Venezuelan Winter League to see how well the changes worked. Hopefully we’ll see positive results quickly. I still believe using a shorter and thus more controllable bat would help as well.

 

Interestingly enough, his struggles reminded me of another slugger from a different era who also got off to a very rough start. I’m sure many will laugh when I name him as a possible comp, but there is some method to the madness. This “comp” did not hit well at Double A after he was drafted out of college, yet the following year was promoted to Triple-A anyway.  He (???????) rewarded his big club’s good faith by posting a strong season that merited a September call-up. The call-up did not go well. Looking at his walk and strikeout rates you can see some similarities to those of Gallo. Put them in league context and they mirror even closer. In 1972 the league average for walks was around 9%, and for strikeouts it was around 15%. By comparison, this hitter was well above league average in both categories: 50% above in walk rate and more than 100% in K rate. Currently the league average is about 8.5% walk rate and about 21.5% strikeout rate, which puts Gallo’s age 21 season pretty close to his old school doppelganger’s when considering league context.

 

If you expand OSD’s (Old School Doppelganger) first exposure from 1971 to the first part of 1972, you’ll find that his first 100 or so major league at bats produced a .211 average, .324 on base, .311 slugging, a walk rate of 13.3% and a strikeout rate of 36.5%.  That’s basically the 1972 version of Gallo.

 

Unfortunately we don’t have a more granular breakdown of his performance like we do with Gallo. Metrics like swinging strike rate and in-zone contact rate have only been around a few years and there’s really no way to go back and find that data for this hitter unless someone decides to watch video tape of every game from that era and score those games. Hopefully the technology will be available one day to do that automatically. Regardless, the absence of that data prevents anyone from further aligning Gallo with him but I thought the comparison was at least thought provoking.

 

The name of Joey Gallo’s possible historical comp? Mike Schmidt. After coaching Gallo during the 2013-14 offseason, Jason Giambi came away from his sessions very impressed, suggesting that he could in time hit .300, something Schmidt did once in his career. That is probably a bit of overly-enthusiastic hyperbole to both give his student confidence and to make people aware that we’re seeing something potentially special. But given Gallo’s wild swings in performance from year to year (pun intended) it’s hard to rule anything out. Giambi himself hit .300 in four seasons so he does know what that looks like.

 

The most common comparable for Gallo to date has been Russell Branyan, which seems the most likely scenario. And assuming he can avoid the injury bug that plagued Branyan his entire career, that might play out quite well. Branyan himself posted some interesting numbers in his first 550 at bats: 37 HRs, 98 RBI, 229 Ks with a .231/.316/.493 batting line.

And Chris Carter: 32 HRs, 81 RBI, 220 Ks, .213/.306/.423

And Jack Cust: 31 HRs, 101 RBI, 223 Ks, .247/.389/.473

And Chris Davis: 32 HRs, 88 RBI, 201 Ks, .243/.294/.483

 

So what to expect from Gallo in 2017? Assuming he follows a similar line to his closest comps for his next 425 at bats, optimistically we should expect roughly 25 homers, 75-80 RBI, a record breaking number of strikeouts and a batting line somewhere around .220/.290.470.  The following table shows the hitters I’ve compared him with and what they did their age 23 seasons.

 

Player

Year

Team

Lg

Level

Org

Pos

Age

Diff

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

CS

BB

SO

HBP

IBB

SH

SF

GDP

AVE

OBP

SLG

OPS

ISO

SecA

BABIP

K/BB

AB/HR

TB

PA

BB%

K%

Baez

2016

Iowa

PCL

AAA

chn

ss

23

-3.6

4

15

3

4

0

0

1

1

1

0

0

4

0

0

0

0

2

0.267

0.267

0.467

734

0.200

0.267

0.300

--

15.00

7

15

0.000

0.267

Baez

2016

Chicago Cubs

NL

MLB

chn

3b

23

 

142

421

50

115

19

1

14

59

12

3

15

108

11

1

2

3

8

0.273

0.313

0.423

736

0.150

0.207

0.334

7.20

30.10

178

452

0.033

0.248

Branyan

1999

Buffalo

IL

AAA

cle

3b

23

-3.8

109

395

51

82

11

1

30

67

8

3

52

187

4

2

0

2

5

0.208

0.305

0.468

773

0.261

0.405

0.289

3.60

13.20

185

453

0.115

0.418

Branyan

1999

Cleveland Indians

AL

MLB

cle

3b

23

 

11

38

4

8

2

0

1

6

0

0

3

19

1

0

0

0

0

0.211

0.286

0.342

628

0.132

0.211

0.389

6.33

38.00

13

42

0.071

0.463

C Davis

2009

Oklahoma City

PCL

AAA

tex

3b

23

-3.9

44

165

27

54

12

1

6

30

0

1

25

39

2

2

0

2

7

0.327

0.418

0.521

939

0.194

0.339

0.393

1.56

27.50

86

194

0.129

0.205

C Davis

2009

Texas Rangers

AL

MLB

tex

1b

23

 

113

391

48

93

15

1

21

59

0

0

24

150

2

2

0

2

6

0.238

0.284

0.442

726

0.205

0.266

0.324

6.25

18.60

173

419

0.057

0.361

C Johnson

2012

Trenton

East

AA

nya

lf

23

-2.1

59

221

29

54

11

1

16

37

0

0

30

90

1

2

0

1

3

0.244

0.336

0.520

856

0.276

0.412

0.328

3.00

13.80

115

253

0.119

0.359

Carter

2010

Sacramento

PCL

AAA

oak

1b

23

-3.8

125

465

92

120

29

2

31

94

1

1

73

138

8

1

0

5

8

0.258

0.365

0.529

894

0.271

0.428

0.296

1.89

15.00

246

551

0.132

0.257

Carter

2010

Oakland Athletics

AL

MLB

oak

lf

23

 

24

70

8

13

1

0

3

7

1

0

7

21

0

0

0

1

3

0.186

0.256

0.329

585

0.143

0.257

0.213

3.00

23.30

23

78

0.090

0.273

Cust

2002

Colorado Springs

PCL

AAA

col

of

23

-4.2

105

359

74

95

24

0

23

55

6

3

83

121

5

4

0

3

5

0.265

0.407

0.524

931

0.259

0.499

0.330

1.46

15.60

188

450

0.184

0.274

Cust

2002

Colorado Rockies

NL

MLB

col

lf

23

 

35

65

8

11

2

0

1

8

0

1

12

32

0

0

0

1

3

0.169

0.295

0.246

541

0.077

0.246

0.303

2.67

65.00

16

78

0.154

0.416

Dunn

2003

Cincinnati Reds

NL

MLB

cin

lf

23

 

116

381

70

82

12

1

27

57

8

2

74

126

10

8

0

4

4

0.215

0.354

0.465

819

0.249

0.459

0.237

1.70

14.10

177

469

0.158

0.277

Halman

2011

Tacoma

PCL

AAA

sea

cf

23

-3.9

40

177

35

53

14

1

3

15

11

1

13

53

3

0

1

0

4

0.299

0.358

0.441

799

0.141

0.271

0.413

4.08

59.00

78

194

0.067

0.279

Halman

2011

Seattle Mariners

AL

MLB

sea

 

23

 

35

87

7

20

2

1

2

6

5

1

2

32

1

0

1

0

2

0.230

0.256

0.345

601

0.115

0.184

0.340

16.00

43.50

30

91

0.022

0.360

Howard

2003

Clearwater

FSL

A+

phi

1b

23

-0.2

130

490

67

149

32

1

23

82

0

0

50

151

8

9

0

5

12

0.304

0.374

0.514

888

0.210

0.312

0.393

3.02

21.30

252

553

0.090

0.280

McPherson

2004

Arkansas

Tex

AA

ana

3b

23

-1.8

68

262

53

84

17

6

20

69

6

5

34

74

4

5

0

2

2

0.321

0.404

0.660

1064

0.340

0.473

0.376

2.18

13.10

173

302

0.113

0.250

McPherson

2004

Salt Lake

PCL

AAA

ana

3b

23

-4.2

67

259

54

81

19

8

20

57

6

3

23

95

1

4

0

1

5

0.313

0.370

0.680

1050

0.367

0.467

0.421

4.13

13.00

176

284

0.081

0.337

McPherson

2004

Anaheim Angels

AL

MLB

ana

3b

23

 

16

40

5

9

1

0

3

6

1

0

3

17

0

0

0

0

0

0.225

0.279

0.475

754

0.250

0.350

0.300

5.67

13.30

19

43

0.070

0.395

Nash

2014

Corpus Christi

Tex

AA

hou

1b

23

-1.5

84

273

46

62

4

0

22

49

1

1

34

112

9

1

3

2

6

0.227

0.330

0.484

814

0.256

0.381

0.284

3.29

12.40

132

321

0.106

0.365

Sano

2016

Rochester

IL

AAA

min

rf

23

-3.7

8

25

3

4

1

0

2

2

0

0

5

10

0

0

0

1

3

0.160

0.290

0.440

730

0.280

0.480

0.143

2.00

12.50

11

31

0.161

0.333

Sano

2016

Minnesota Twins

AL

MLB

min

d

23

 

116

437

57

103

22

1

25

66

1

0

54

178

1

0

3

1

8

0.236

0.320

0.462

782

0.227

0.352

0.332

3.30

17.50

202

496

0.109

0.363

Schmidt

1973

Philadelphia Phillies

NL

MLB

phi

3b

23

 

132

367

43

72

11

0

18

52

8

2

62

136

9

3

1

4

8

0.196

0.324

0.373

697

0.177

0.362

0.249

2.19

20.40

137

443

0.140

0.317

Wood

2008

Salt Lake

PCL

AAA

ana

ss

23

-3.9

103

395

82

117

21

2

31

84

6

5

45

104

6

1

0

2

9

0.296

0.375

0.595

970

0.299

0.415

0.328

2.31

12.70

235

448

0.100

0.236

Wood

2008

Los Angeles Angels

AL

MLB

ana

3b-ss

23

 

55

150

12

30

4

0

5

13

4

0

4

43

1

0

1

1

3

0.200

0.224

0.327

551

0.127

0.180

0.243

10.75

30.00

49

157

0.025

0.279

 

As you can see, those that played in the majors were mostly underwhelming. It’s not until their age 24 seasons that we really begin to see the players we picture when we hear their names, which bodes well for Miguel Sano and Javier Baez in 2017. As for Gallo? Maybe he arrives earlier than anticipated and breaks through in 2017. I suspect he’ll spend at least a little time back at Triple-A next year with a possible mid-season promotion, and 2018 will be the year we see what he can do. Where he goes from there is anyone’s guess.