LDS Review/LCS Preview
October 13, 2005
Padres and Cardinals too close to call, eh? Red Sox versus White
Sox - an epic match-up? Yankees likely to be swept by the
Angels? Well, it's pretty clear that I didn't do so well on my
first round predictions, but I did at least get the eventual winner
right in each of the series that I offered a prediction. So what
happened?
In the Padres case, there were several factors that contributed to
their shameful undoing and only one of them had to do with their
regular
season won-loss record. The first and most obvious, of course, is
that Jake Peavy pitched Game 1 with a broken rib that he had injured
during their clinching celebration but neglected to tell anyone about
or have checked out. Pitching in the playoffs is tough enough
without trying to locate pitches when it hurts to breathe. The
second factor in their undoing is Bruce Bochy's inability to recognize
the difference between a playoff game and a regular season game.
For example, in Game 3 the Padres were down 5-0 by the middle innings
and the Cardinals had put men on 2nd and 3rd with one out in the
5th. Yadier Molina was at bat with pitcher Matt Morris on
deck. Normally, I am loathe to intentionally walk anyone because
it only adds to the run scoring potential of the opponent. But if
the Cardinals score any more runs in that situation, the Padres season
is for all intents and purposes over. With a professional hitter
at the plate, the correct move is to put him on first to load the bases
and take one's chance against a guy who only gets 50-60 at bats per
season, is a .155 career hitter and only hit .088 this year. The
odds are very high that he will either strike out or put a ball softly
in play that will either result in a double play or a force out at
home. Either way, the Padres have an excellent chance to get out
of the inning unscathed. More importantly, they simply didn't
have the luxury of testing
Molina. During the regular season, taking a chance against him
isn't a big deal because there are still more games to play; if you
blow one, there are still another 161. When your season is down
to win today or go play golf
tomorrow, that's just not an acceptable risk. But that's
what Bochy
chose - to pitch to Molina - and he lost because Molina singled,
driving in two more runs. Game, Series and Season over. The
third aspect that undid the Pads was their eagerness to swing early in
critical counts. Maybe it was nervousness due to their
inexperience or their youth
but their pitch recognition was uncharacteristically poor. And
the fourth
aspect of their demise and a significant one that played a role in
their mediocre regular season record is the defensive gaps that need to
be addressed this offseason in the outfield
and first base. Perhaps Xavier Nady will work hard enough to
become a good first baseman. Mark Sweeney is too old and too far
away skillwise. And they desperately need guys who can cover much
more ground than Klesko, Nady and Giles in the outfield corners.
If the Padres hope to be competitive next year
they need to improve their defense to better fit their home park.
As for the the Red Sox? Well, their problems aren't as
serious. With a healthy Curt Schilling and Keith Foulke they
would have been much more competitive. What the White Sox exposed
was their lack of versatility on offense. The whole
draw-walks-and-bang-doubles-and-home runs thing works most of the time,
but in the
playoffs teams simply can't afford to ignore other methods of
scoring. Outfield defensive upgrades might help as well but I
don't believe that's why the BoSox got swept. The White Sox were
simply healthier and a slightly better team overall. But back to
the Boston outfield, the
rumor I keep hearing is that Boston will deal Manny Ramirez to Toronto
for Vernon Wells while picking up a chunk of Ramirez' contract. I
have my doubts because teams rarely trade within their division.
But it does make sense for both teams as the Blue Jays could move Rios
to center and Ramirez is the kind of impact bat they need for their
line-up, and with Damon likely demanding too many years to stay in
Boston, the Red Sox could be looking for a defensive upgrade in
center.
I was surprised that the Braves were able to take a game from the
Astros and even extend Game 4 to 18 innings. Even more of a
surprise was that it was Kyle Farnsworth who was guilty of surrendering
the lead to the 'Stros in that game, as he had been pretty much lights
out all year and the only reliable reliever they had over the final two
months of the season. It's also interesting that coming into the
2005 season there had been frequent questions about whether he had the
make-up to be a closer, but he had largely silenced his critics with
his performance up until the post-season. But with that 8th and
9th inning failure, teams looking for a closer might not look at
Farnsworth as favorably as they might have just a week before.
Playoff performance is often so overmagnified that players are fairly
(and unfairly) judged for a career on just a small sample. It
will be interesting to see if Farnsworth gets the contract he's seeking
and if he opens 2006 with a closer's job.
Lastly, the Yankees did a remarkable job of extending the series
against the Angels. Much has been made of their failure to
advance despite their $200 million payroll but the reality is that much
of that payroll was inert. Yes, they should be favored to win the
World Series at the beginning of the season with that kind of cash
outlay, but the team they went to the postseason with wasn't $200
million worth of talent. On the plus side for the Yanks, Shawn
Chacon should only get better now that he's out of Colorado, and if the
Yanks can find someone who can move Giambi to full-time DH and someone
who can chase balls down in center, Chien Wang might be pretty solid as
well. The rest of their rotation? Well, that's a bit more
of a crapshoot because every single one of their marquis starters has
health questions. Also plaguing the Yankees this offseason is the
probable losses of uber-setup man Tom Gordon and the departure of GM
Brian Cashman. So the Yanks will have to find some other super
smart guy who can figure out how to fix the defense and the bullpen
with what's available on the free agent market and little to offer in
the way of trades. Next year could mark the end of the Yanks
reign in the East.
So what happens from here?
I'm not going to make any predictions because a) I've proven that I'm
not that good at it when it comes to this year's playoff series, and b)
both series look to be very even match-ups. For example, the
Astros' offense has trouble with right-handed pitchers yet the Astros
throw arguably the three toughest starters in the NL over the second
half of the season against a banged-up Cardinal offense. Who wins
that match-up? I don't know but I seriously doubt that any game
will see more than 10 runs total scored.
And the Angels and White Sox? Without Colon for the Angels, these
two staffs match-up pretty well and their offenses aren't dissimilar
other than the fact that the Angels don't strike out much while the
White Sox do. The White Sox were lucky to come away with a split
at home, but they were also the best road team in baseball so it's not
like they are behind the 8-ball.
Speaking of the split, every single one of those umpires
in Game 2 should be removed from the ALCS and replaced. In
the 9th inning of a tie game with two outs, home plate umpire Doug
Eddings rung up Pierzinski with his hand ending the play. Without
that hand signal, none of the Angel players in front of the play would
have begun walking off the field. It doesn't matter if Josh Paul
caught it or the ball bounced in the dirt. Just as in the NFL, if
the referee calls a play dead, it is dead and over and not
reviewable. In essence, that is what Eddings did with his hand
signal. He then inexplicably changed his call after Pierzinski
ran to first. The other umps are just as culpable
because they didn't hold Eddings to his original ruling.
Pierzinski's story about thinking that the ball had bounced is
absolutely ridiculous. If he thought it bounced, why was he
headed back to his dugout? He didn't start running to first until
after Josh Paul was tossing the ball back to the mound while heading
back to his own dugout. It's abundantly clear that he knows he
got away with a now legendary deceit and is simply trying to cover his
tracks, reaching for anything that is remotely plausible. It's
like Rafael Palmeiro suggesting the steroids in his system might have
come in an over-the-counter supplement. It only works until one
looks at the actual facts. As for Eddings claim that he always
makes the call that way, his actions earlier in this very game on a
similar call point to the fact that he's also trying to cover his
tracks. On a similar pitch near the dirt he was very emphatic
that there was no catch. Yet in the 9th inning with the score
tied and the eventual winning run at the plate he decides to mail it
in? Puh-lease. Remove them, fire them, I don't
care. But Eddings and the rest of that umpiring crew have no
place in baseball's premier showcase. They simply aren't
qualified if they have no more integrity than that.
Fortunately, it was only Game 2 and the Angels have a day to put
the whole episode behind them. Led by Mike Scioscia, the Angels
have already at least put on the right front, saying they didn't play
well enough to overcome adversity to win that game and are looking
forward to making amends. Hopefully, this will end up as a minor
footnote to the Series instead of a
Don
Denkinger-esque shadow.