The Playoff Match-ups - AL
Yankees-Twins
All year the Yankees have been discounted because of their
rotation. Despite that, the team won 101 games. Still, no
one on the staff has been consistent so it's quite a gamble to predict
that they will live up to their previously demonstrated ability.
Regardless, I don't know that the Yankees biggest worry should be their
rotation; it may be their bullpen. Because their starters have
been so inconsistent, the bullpen has been used more than any other AL
team in the playoffs. They have had a very good formula with
Quantrill, Gordon and Rivera for much of the season, but Quantrill
(10.50 ERA) was hammered in September so the Yanks may have to depend
on Steve Karsay and Tanyon Sturtze to get them through the middle
innings. The options get even worse after those two. Even
then, Rivera has been less than automatic recently (5.91 ERA in
September) so even if they get the lead to him, a victory may not be as
certain as it has been in previous years. They key for the
Yankees will be getting 7 innings out of their starters in at least 3
of the potential 5 games. If they don't, they will be vulnerable
to a Twins line-up than can not only hit the ball out (nine guys have
double digit homer totals), but can manufacture runs throughout the
line-up.
Minnesota has two keys: finding a third starter behind Santana and
Radke, and getting the top of their line-up on base. The Twins
have excellent chances to win the games that Santana and Radke start,
especially with Balfour, Crain, Romero and Rincon to get to
Nathan. But they can't depend on those guys to get the tough outs
in the games Santana and Radke pitch, plus 5 innings of relief when
they don't. Carlos Silva has pitched well in September (1.72 ERA)
so if he contines, they have an excellent chance for an upset.
Last year, only Radke and Milton were hot entering the playoffs and
Milton had only 3 starts after coming back from an injury. This
year, Santana (0.45 ERA!!), Radke (2.19 ERA) and Silva have hot hands
coming into the post-season so keeping the Yankees offense in check
should be a realistic expectation. But that won't matter so much
if the Twins can only score a couple of runs per game. The
Yankees have too many boppers to keep quiet if every game is a one-run
affair. Even as good as the Twins bullpen is, if a solo shot can
tie the game, the advantage goes to the Yankees. A healthy
Shannon Stewart (career on base of .400 versus the Yankees' pitchers)
will help, but if he can't go the job may fall to Lew Ford (.357 career
versus the Yanks). Either way, they need to get on base for the
Twins to win the Series.
This is probably the best match-up the Twins have had against the
Yankees in several years. They enter the series with three hot
starters, a deep bullpen and they face a Yankees staff that although is
extremely talented, has so many questions right now. This is a
winnable series for them, especially since Lieber is the only Yankee
starter with an ERA under 6.00 against the Twins this year.
Prediction: Twins 3-2
Angels-Red Sox
This is an interesting first round match-up
because both teams have potentially strong rotations, several excellent
set-up men, but vulnerable closers. The Angels have a similar
look to the team that won it all two years ago, but Troy Percival is
much more hittable than he was in 2002. The Red Sox have a
similar look to last year's team, but it will be difficult to win it
all with a closer who doesn't throw hard. In fact, you have to go
back to the 1980s to find teams that won the World Series with a closer
that couldn't hit the mid-90s: the '85 Royals with Dan Quisenberry and
the '87 Twins with Jeff Reardon. I don't know if Jay Howell or
Alejandro Pena threw serious heat for the 1988 Dodgers, or if Eckersley
was more location than velocity for the 1989 A's, but after 1989 all
the championships have been won with hard-throwing closers. Some
will suggest that the 2001 Diamondbacks won without a flamethrower
closing things out, but if you'll remember, it was Randy Johnson on the
mound in Game 7, not Byung-Hyun Kim.
Regardless, the intrguing part of the match-up is the on-base and
doubles machine that is the Red Sox offense versus the toolsy offense
of the Angels. Both have advantages, but with the quality of
pitching that will be on display, generally I would favor the team that
can generate offense in more ways to win out, especially if the closer
can't dominate the other team. However, the reality is that
neither starting staff has been especially good against the other
team's offense with the exception of Curt Schilling. He is the
only starter with an ERA under 4.00 versus the opposition and his
performance has been quite good - 2.30 ERA with 2 wins in two
starts. Since Schilling could get to start two games in the
series, the edge has to be with the Red Sox.
Also working against the Angels is the fact that they will be without
Jose Guillen. Not only will his potential to put a run on the
board with one swing of the bat be missed, but the absence of his
defense, especially his arm will afford the Red Sox more opportunities
to score. Say what you will about team chemsitry, but in a short
series, no team can afford to give away advantages on principle.
Even though they probably won't miss Guillen the person, the Angels
will miss Guillen's talent on the field. Prediction: Red Sox 3-1