Playoff Preview
October 3, 2005
The playoffs are finally set, so let the second guessing begin.
San Diego vs St. Louis
Bruce Bochy has set up his rotation to have Jake Peavy start in game 1
and Adam Eaton start game 2. Peavy is unflappable so I don't
think it's a big deal to start him against Carpenter. But for me,
the smart move is to start Woody Williams in game 2 and save Eaton for
Game 3. Why? Williams has playoff experience and probably
won't be as intimidated by the big stage as Eaton might be, especially
in a hostile city. Also, Williams was well liked in St. Louis and
might be viewed as a guy who was run out of town by a team that didn't
want him. The Cardinal fans will be less sympathetic with
Eaton. Neither Williams or Eaton have been particularly good
in recent weeks until their final start of the regular season so why
not use the guy
with playoff experience?
This isn't the first time Bochy has opted to use his youngsters instead
of a veteran in the playoffs. In 1996, Bochy chose Joey
Hamilton and Scott Sanders as his Game 1 and 2 starts, both of whom
showed their nerves to start the game as the Cards jumped out to early
leads. They put up a quick 3 in the first inning of Game 1 and
racked up 4 by the 5th inning in Game 2. Bochy could have started
veteran Fernando Valenzuela, but instead chose to waste him in the
bullpen. There's no guarantee than Valenzuela would have fared
any better but he would not have been affected by the playoff jitters
nor would he have been intimidated by the hostile crowd, and he did
finish second on the team in wins and ERA that season. It looks
like Bochy still hasn't learned. On the bright side, Eaton
pitched somewhat effectively in his only start against them this year,
winning a 5-4 scrap at Busch while striking out 7, and was dominant in
his final start allowing just a single hit while striking out 11
Dodgers..
The Cards, on the other hand come in on a winning streak, but Mulder,
Morris Marquis and Carpenter have failed to pitch well enough to get a
win over their final pass through the rotation. It wasn't bad
luck, either. Only Mulder allowed fewer than 5 runs in his final
start, and he walked 7 in lasting only 4 innings. The primary
reason the Cardinals won their final series is that they were facing a
dreadful Cincinnati staff which they rightly pummeled. The Padres
will offer a considerably tougher test; the Padres won 4 of their 7
regular season meetings. Maybe the Cardinals haven't felt any
urgency to play well after they clinched the division, but they've only
had 6 quality starts in their last 15 games. Not coincidentally,
they lost 8 of the 15.
It should be an interesting series because after Pujols and
Edmonds, the Cardinals have plenty of questions in the line-up.
Is Larry Walker's back healthy? Can Reggie Sanders step up in the
playoffs? His history isn't good because he has so many
vulnerable
spots in his strikezone. If not them, who else is
dangerous?
While no one on the Padres really stands out and scares the opposition,
they have very good depth both in the line-up and off the bench.
On paper they don't look so great because
all the injuries have limited
their opportunities to accumulate counting stats but this
team as a
whole is probably the toughest to pitch to of any on the NL side of the
postseason. Just about every guy who comes to the plate is a
decent threat to go deep and most can handle the bat pretty well
otherwise. Bochy will probably cost the Padres a win with poor
decision-making, but this match-up will pose more problems for the
Cardinals than either than Astros or the Braves.
Too close to call
(Editors note - 10/4/05 - Bochy has
changed his rotation after Peavy and will now be starting Eaton in Game
3 at home, with possibly Pedro Astacio starting Game 2. So maybe
he has learned.)
Houston vs Atlanta
In the other NL series, the Astros will throw their two postseason
studs,
Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens against the largely inexperienced
line-up of the Braves. That's almost like throwing lambs to the
wolves. If the Braves
can't get to them before they get to Lidge, this series will be over in
three games because it's a huge longshot that Jorge Sosa will be able
to beat Roy Oswalt in Houston. The Astros have 4 hitters who have
hit at least 30 doubles and 20
homers this season - Berkman, Ensberg, Biggio and Lane - and they'll
have Jeff Bagwell back from injury.
The Braves also
have a problem in that Smoltz and Hudson aren't good bets to go much
beyond six, possibly seven innings - Smoltz hasn't thrown more
than 7 innings in any start since August 10, Hudson has reached the 8th
twice in September but has given up less than 4 runs only twice -
which means that the Astro hitters
will get a shot at the Braves horrible middle relief well before Cox
can bring in Kyle Farnsworth to close. That doesn't bode well for
Atlanta
either. Other than the fact that the Braves have Andruw and
Chipper Jones, they really don't have much going for them in this
series.
Houston 3-0
Boston vs Chicago
Now that Bobby Jenks has a few tough saves under his belt, the White
Sox have a closer who can be scary come crunch time. The flame
thrower at the end is a nice weapon to have, although Jenks has very
little experience with playoff type pressure and has before this season
a long history of control problems. If he remains as good as he's
looked recently, the White Sox bullpen will be very tough to score
against making them a dangerous team despite their offensive
shortcomings.
The White Sox rotation has been especially impressive over the last
week, completely shutting down a potent Cleveland offense in Cleveland
in the season finale.
This makes the Red Sox the perfect team to oppose them because
their bullpen isn't very intimidating, nor is their rotation, but their
offense seemingly can't be stopped. It's a case of the
irresistible force (Boston's offense) meeting the immovable object
(Chicago's pitching) while the very resistible force (the White Sox
hitters) faces the easily movable object (the Red Sox pitching).
The secret weapon the Sox have is Jon Papelbon pitching the set-up
innings for Mike Timlin. Papelbon has been impressive in
displaying a very good feel for pitching while firing up some serious
cheese. If he can clean up the messes well enough to leave Timlin
to start the ninth each time out, the Red Sox will be tough.
Timlin isn't that intimidating but he's good enough to hold a decent
lead.
The advantage the Red Sox have is that they are not intimidated by any
obstacle; after all, they overcame a 3-0 deficit last year against the
Yankees to win the ALCS. The advantage the White Sox have is that
their manager Ozzie Guillen won't let his team crumble under any
circumstances. This should be an all-time great series.
Chicago 3-2
New York vs Anaheim
A not so great series will be the Yankees visiting Anaheim. Other
than Randy Johnson, the Yankees don't have any starter they can count
on to give them more than 5 or 6 innings. Shawn Chacon is their
best hope to provide an able #2. Mussina has been alternately
brilliant and dreadful this year and there are no clues as to which one
will show up. The good news for Yankee fans
is that Mussina (the Game 1 starter) has had good success against the
Angels in Anaheim, going 8-2 with a 2.82 ERA. This year he won
his only start there, but was 1-2 against them overall. Aaron
Small has been out-performing his career
numbers by such a substantial margin that when his bill finally comes
due it will likely be as horrific a sight as Greg Norman's
collapse at the Masters. Here's betting that the Angels will
collect.
Mussina's Game 1
opponent, Bartolo Colon, has struggled against the Yankees, giving up 4
home runs in his last start at home against them while still netting a
win. Game 2 starter John Lackey has dominated the Yanks in 2
starts this year with 2 wins and holding them to a collective 3 earned
runs over 10.2 innings. Paul Byrd pitched 7 solid innings in his
only start against the Pinstripes and for his career he has a 3.00 ERA
and 1.28 WHIP against them. Jarrod Washburn has likewise been
tough on the Yanks, with a 2.35 ERA and 1.11 WHIP against them this
year, 2.72 ERA and 1.12 WHIP for his career. In short, Randy
Johnson will probably have to win his start in Game 3 for the Yankees
to extend the series beyond 3 games.
Anaheim 3-1