Time to Face the Music - NL Central

OK, next is the NL Central:

Houston Astros
What I got right - The Astro pitching was as good as advertised, Ken Caminiti was very productive when he was healthy, the outfield defense was better than last year, the Astros do look pretty decent for a playoff run, even without Moises Alou.

What I got wrong - Caminiti wasn't very healthy, Alou didn't come back from his knee injury.

Outlook for next year - The Astros will have a healthy Moises Alou and Ken Caminiti (or at least as healthy as he gets).  Carl Everett will probably not hit .325 next year.  Before this year, the highest he had hit was .296 and his minor league record and strikezone judgment indicated he's more of a .270-.280 hitter.  However, he's still a decent hitter and an above average fielder.  The Astros will have a very good defensive team, with uber-shortstop Julio Lugo looming in AAA if Ricky Gutierrez falters.  The pitching will again be solid as Larry Dierker is particularly savvy at getting the most out of his pitchers without risking injuries.  It will interesting to see if closer Billy Wagner can top this year's performance - more saves than hits allowed?  Unbelievable!  Barring a monumental change, the Astros will be the front runner for next year's NL Central crown.
 

Chicago Cubs
What I got right - Gary Gaetti didn't have much left. The more the season wore on, the more it was apparent he was just trying to pad his numbers for a possible run at Cooperstown.  A lot depends on who he's up against when he finally retires.  John Lieber was about as good as Mark Clark, but did not have the breakout year many expected.  He pitched brilliantly for the first two months of the season and then reversed a career trend by flopping in the second half.  He certainly wasn't helped by Jim Riggleman's erratic use of the bullpen.  On several occasions, Riggleman took starters with the lead, out of the game to start the ninth inning, even though they were under or slightly above the 100 pitch count, in favor of a reliever who would, of course, blow the lead and the game.

What I got wrong - I expected Lance Johnson to stabilize the offense and provide at least decent on base for Sosa, Grace and Rodriguez.  It didn't happen.  The Cubs offense was very inconsistent, and Lance Johnson was pathetic.  Benito Santiago wasn't much of an improvement over Scott Servais, although he didn't get much of a chance in the second half, historically his better half.  Over the past 5 years, Santiago's on base and slugging go up by more than 100 points in the second half of the season.  I guess no one told Jim Riggleman.  Jose Hernandez and Jeff Blauser were adequate, but could not cover enough for the woeful Gaetti.  Not even an encore performance by Sosa was enough to lift the Cubs out of the cellar

Outlook for next year - Jim Riggleman is gone.  He seemed stung by the criticism over the Kerry Wood injury and overly protective of his starters because of it, thus overexposing the Cubs thin bullpen.  Riggleman certainly couldn't have anticipated that he would get a sub par year from the offense.  Mickey Morandini and Lance Johnson will surely be gone.  Steve Trachsel is a free agent that the Cubs might resign.  He turned his season around in late August and pitched well down the stretch.  Kerry Wood's rehab is going well and Mike Meyers is very close to a call-up.  With Tapani, Lieber, Kyle Farnsworth and possibly Trachsel, the Cubs will have some flexibility next year with their starting pitching.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them deal one of their starters to Colorado in a deal to bring Vinny Castilla to Wrigley.  They also need to find a short-term solution in centerfield until Corey Patterson is ready.  They also could use some help in the bullpen.  All in all, it should be a very busy offseason for the Cubs front office.
 

St Louis Cardinals
What I got right - Almost verbatim "Alan Benes, Matt Morris and Donovan Osborne missed most or all of last season with injuries".  That's what I said in spring training.  And it applies once again 8 months later.  Amazing.  Ex-Phillie Garrett Stephenson was a sleeper, pitching very well in limited action.

What I got wrong - One would think that an offense with Edgar Renteria, Mark McGwire and Ray Lankford would be very good.  Throw in a breakout year from Fernando Tatis and super utility man Joe McEwing and it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect this team to be among the league leaders in scoring.   But there they are, 10th in the NL in runs scored.  Prospect of the Decade JD Drew extremely disappointing considering the hype over his September performance last year, Eric Davis and Darren Bragg were non-factors as was Ray Lankford.  Injuries were the main culprit, and will continue to threaten the latter 3.  As for Drew, most observers pointed to mental mistakes as the cause of his struggles although injuries played a role, also.  Kent Bottenfield, 18 wins?  Who'd a thunk that?  Never again.  With 3 closers (Radinsky, Bottalico and Acevedo) and some solid young relievers, it looked like the Cardinals' bullpen would dominate they way Cardinal bullpens did in the 80's under Whitey Herzog.  They didn't.  Not even close.  The Cardinals were once again one of the league leaders in blown saves and bullpen ERA.

Outlook for next year - Well, one would think that one year the Cardinals would have a healthy starting rotation.  The law of averages would have to favor it.  Whether that one year is next year remains to be seen.  The Cardinals will try to re-sign Darren Oliver.  With Bottenfield, Stephenson, Pitching Prospect of the Decade Rick Ankiel (uh, oh - huge hype, LaRussa/Duncan's history with young arms... cross your fingers), and one of this year's injured starters, probably Benes, the Cardinals could field an excellent rotation.  I expect this year was an aberration for Drew; his strikeout to walk ratios don't suggest a hitter this ineffective.  If the Cardinals can find some solutions in the bullpen, they could give the Astros a run for their money.
 

Cincinnati Reds
What I got right - Few people knew the true impact that Greg Vaughn would have on the Reds.  They knew about the power.  What they didn't know was what an inspirational leader he was, on and off the field.  He showed the same patience he showed as a Padre in 1998 and nearly duplicated his power numbers.  He also showed the same competitive fire that lifted him from his dismal 1997 to MVP candidate in 1998.  Only this time he took an entire team with him.  Mike Cameron finally showed the same multitude of skills he had displayed in the minors: terrific speed, good power and excellent defense. Denny Neagle was great down the stretch, although the Reds could have used him for a full year.

What I got wrong - Ed Taubensee didn't need any help from Brian Johnson.  Even years after he was traded for Kenny Lofton, Tal Smith, the GM of the Astros who traded for him, maintained that Taubensee would be a good catcher with very good power.  It turns out he was right, just 8 years too late.  The last time Mark Lewis was a Red, he torched NL pitching to the tune of a .339 average.  It wasn't hard to keep Mark Lewis out of the line-up this time around, mainly because Aaron Boone was decent at third base, Pokey Reese had a break out year at second and Lewis hit .254.  Not hard to figure that one out.  Much was expected from Bret Tomko, but again he was very inconsistent, being sent down at one point this season for refusing to throw inside.  Steve Avery was in the rotation for about 2 months until manager Jack McKeon decided it was time to stop walking the opposing clubhouse.  He found relief in Ron Villone and Steve Parris, both of whom started the year in AAA, and developed into two of the Reds most consistent pitchers..  The bullpen was the strength of the pitching staff, which was something wholly unexpected.  Danny Graves, Scott Sullivan and Scott Williamson were brilliant. And pre season favorite for closer Gabe White never even threatened to close.

Outlook for next year - Vaughn is a free agent and it will be interesting to see if the Reds find his leadership and home run power worthy of the big bucks he'll command on the market.  The Reds are fairly deep in outfield talent so they may not see any urgency to bring him back.  Both Denny Neagle and Pete Harnisch will start next year healthy and with the emergence of Parris and Villone, the Reds can field a nice mix of righty/lefty, power/finesse in their rotation.  If Bret Tomko finally harnesses his talent, the Reds could be in very good shape for the first two thirds of every game.  However, Jack McKeon ran his bullpen into the ground this year keeping the Reds in contention.  Relievers who log over 100 innings in a season tend to follow up with sub par seasons. The Reds have 2 relievers with 100+ innings and one with 93, with both Graves and Sullivan pitching more innings than staff ace Denny Neagle.  It's highly unlikely they will be as effective next year, although it should be noted that this is the 3rd consecutive year that Sullivan has logged close to or more than 100 innings.  It should also be noted that his ERA last year, the year after his first such year, was 5.21     
 

Milwaukee Brewers
What I got right - Dave Nilsson was great for most of the season (somewhat unexpected) and then got injured (almost guaranteed).  Geoff Jenkins emerged as pretty good hitter (.371 OBA/.564 SLG).  Steve Woodard turned into a pretty decent pitcher.  The injury to team leader Jeromy Burnitz stymied the Brewers just as they were gaining the confidence they could win.  Although they still didn't have what was necessary to win the division, mainly consistent pitching, they could have been a .500 ballclub.

What I got wrong - John Jaha and Sean Berry were not "roughly equal".  Berry was injured most of the year, and when he was in the line-up, completely ineffective.  John Jaha, meanwhile, bombed AL pitching for the Oakland A's.  The Brewers did not hit and run a whole lot, failing to use their greatest strength, the ability to make contact.  The bullpen was serviceable, but not particularly outstanding.  Bob Wickman kept his job as closer, on the strength that their was no one else halfway decent to replace him.

Outlook for next year - The Brewers and their fans don't have a whole lot to look forward to.  Their new ballpark won't open for another year due to a horrific construction accident that cost several people their lives.  Of secondary importance, a scandal may ensue because there is a suspicion of imprudent management decisions concerning the safe operation of the crane that collapsed.  On the baseball front, there's not a whole lot in the farm system to help out in the next year or so, their scouting and amateur drafts have been woeful, and they can't keep their pitchers healthy.  Without some major changes, this team is destined to be closer to the bottom of the NL Central than the top for a long time.  
 

Pittsburgh Pirates
What I got right - The Pirate offense was much improved, thanks largely to Brian Giles and the other hitters taking more walks.  However, they still have a long way to go, as they finished 12th in runs scored.  Rich Loiselle faltered out of spring training and lost his closers job.  Mike Williams was his surprise replacement, although if I had been paying attention to his performance last September (0.87 ERA and a couple of saves), I might have anticipated it.

What I got wrong - Chris Peters and Jose Silva were non-factors in the rotation.  Newcomer Kris Benson and prospect-come-journeyman Todd Ritchie had big years in their place.  Silva might yet become a valuable pitcher out of the bullpen.  He pitched brilliantly in August and September allowing only a 2.14 ERA and picking up 4 saves.  Next year's closer maybe?  Pete Schourek did not contribute as expected.  Apparently he has not fully recovered from whatever he was recovering from.  Arm surgery?  Being dissed in Boston?  Being Ray Knight's whipping boy?  Who knows.  But he pitched well in September, so maybe next year he regains his old 18-win form.  Jason Christiansen did not become the closer.  In fact, he was pretty much a  non-factor in the Bucs' bullpen.  Nothing strange or threatening to report, so maybe it was just an off year

Outlook for next year - The Pirates will try to inject more youth into next year's team, with Aramis Ramirez at third and Chad Hermansen in the outfield.  The addition of both of these players will definitely increase the Bucs ability to hit the long ball - the Pirates were 10th in the league in homers - but it might not do much for their ability to score runs.  Ramirez is a step up offensively from current third baseman Ed Sprague, but Hermansen, as with many young hitters, starts swinging as soon as he walks out of the dugout.  He will likely replace Al Martin, who is only slightly better in judging balls from strikes.  Defense is another thing entirely.  Martin has been an outfielder his whole career; Hermansen, an outfielder for only the last couple of years after being tried at short and second.  And team defense will still be a concern.  The Pirates were 2nd in the league for most errors and 2nd to last in the league in outfield assists.  They were second in the league in turning double plays so maybe it evens out.  Still, a centerfielder with limited range (Giles), a left fielder with only a couple of years experience (Hermansen), a third baseman who led the International League in errors this year (Ramirez) and a first baseman who led the NL in errors at his position with 23 (!), can't inspire a great deal of confidence.  Still, their pitching should be good enough to keep them in most games, until either the defense makes a crucial error to lose the game or someone hits a home run to win it.

Picks:
1) Houston
2) Cincinnati
3) St Louis
4) Milwaukee
5) Pittsburgh
6) Chicago

Not bad, but again room for improvement.