Pobre Padres
September 29, 2005
The Padres have become somewhat of a joke in the media because of their
mediocre record in making the playoffs. But that's one joke that
at least 22 other teams wouldn't mind having. And there's a good
possibility that people won't be laughing much longer because the Pads
are a much better team than their won-loss record indicates.
After their dismal weekend in Arizona and a pathetic display in the
first game of their crucial series with the Giants, the team finally
showed a sense of urgency with the kind of grit that makes a team
dangerous in the post-season with a 9-6 comeback in on Tuesday.
Then they secured their playoff
spot with a 9-1 whitewashing where they took advantage of every scoring
opportunity that was afforded them. Even though their won-loss
record may not indicate it, the Padres are as deserving of a postseason
berth as anyone.
How many teams would still be .500 had they been without their starting
catcher, shortstop, second baseman
and
centerfielder for an average of 55 games with none of those players
suited up for more than 118 games due to injuries. To whit, how
many games would the Yankees have won had they been without Jeter
and
Posada in addition to the injury woes they suffered through? How
about
the Cardinals without Edmonds and Eckstein? Or the Red Sox
without Damon
and Renteria and Varitek? Of the teams that have a chance at
finish the season at .500 or above, only the Twins, Mets and Padres
have gotten
fewer than 120 games out of at least two of those positions. No
playoff team has gotten fewer than 120 games out of more than one of
the regular players at those positions except the Padres and they've
been without all four. The
point is that is pretty
tough to win the majority of your games
without the heart of your team's defense for nearly a third of the
season. Throw into this whirlpool of pain that the Pads were also
without their #2
starter, Adam Eaton, for two months (and currently pitching through his
injury), and
their ace Jake Peavy pitched for a month
through an illness that caused him to lose 15 pounds.
So how good are the Padres when they are healthy? In only two
months - May and September - have they gotten at least 12 games
from each of their keystone players. They have a .648 winning
percentage over those two months (a 105-win pace over a full season)
and if you recall, the Padres went
22-6 in May, which also happen to be the best record in baseball that
month.
They bring a pretty decent starting pitching staff to the
table. Peavy is one of the best pitchers in all of baseball,
period. He led the league in ERA last year and this year has
posted
an ERA of 2.56 after the Break and a 2.03 ERA in September. Pedro
Astacio doesn't exactly strike fear into people's hearts, but the fact
is that he was once a pretty good starter and has managed to re-capture
that magic in San Diego, posting a 1.067 WHIP and a 2.20 ERA over
August and September in 7 starts. The rest of the rotation has
been struggling but Woody Williams, Brian Lawrence and Eaton have each
had stretches of dominance this year. If they can
battle for five or six innings in their playoff starts, they can then
turn the game over to the strength of
the Padre staff: the bullpen. The Padres have the third best
bullpen ERA in the NL (behind the Cardinals and Nats) and only the Nats
have a better end-game troika than Scott Linebrink, Akinori Otsuka and
Trevor Hoffman.
The offense isn't very scary on paper because unlike the other playoff
teams they don't have any guys smacking 30 or 40 (
or 50)
homers. But they do have consistency up and
down the line-up: except for Roberts, each of their regulars has
double-digit home run power. As he's shown when he's healthy,
Roberts can be a real distraction at the top of the line-up.
The Pads can hit-and-run, they have power and have decent speed on the
bases. In the playoffs, unless your team
is an overwhelming offensive force like the Red Sox were last year,
flexibility like that on offense is paramount because the more ways
your team can score, the less chance they can be completely shut down.
Granted, Bruce Bochy doesn't have a reputation as a great game
tactician but neither does Bobby Cox and Tony LaRussa's reputation has
lost a lot of it's luster in recent years. The Braves don't have
much depth in their rotation and their bullpen is suspect, an often
fatal combination in the playoffs. The Cardinals have more depth
in their pitching, but after Pujols, Edmonds, Sanders and Walker, do
the Cardinals have anyone that is a real offensive threat? Not
really. I'm not saying the Padres should be favored against
either the Braves or Cardinals because those teams have earned their
esteem with superior regular season records. But the Padres have
battled through more adversity than just about any team this season and
deserve their spot in the playoffs. Anyone who underestimates
their ability based on their .500 record will be in for a very
unpleasant surprise.