082900

We want a Pitcher...   (08/29/00)

With hitting the way it's been for the past couple of years, everyone - scouts, front offices, fantasy owners - is desperately looking for pitching. Which means now is the best time to be a young pitcher. Why? Because if you have even a smidgen of talent, someone's gonna throw a nice chunk of change your way. The problem is that so much money is being thrown around and yet so few produce. So how does one identify a guy who who's gonna be a pitcher and not, well... someone who may be looking for other employment soon.

Tom Davey (SD)
The first thing you look for is stuff. Tom Davey, who came to the Padre's system as part of the Al Martin trade this year, has stuff and plenty of it. His fastball has been clocked as high as 100 mph. But as you can see by his numbers, he's had some troubles.

NAME             LVL   W-L    PCT    ERA   G GS CG SHO GF SV   IP    H   AB TBF   R ER HR SH SF HB BB IB SO WP BK 0H 1H 2H 3H
2 Davey, Tom       AAA   1- 2 .333   4.97 11 0 0   0 2 0 12.2 24   60   68 13   7 0 0 1 0   7 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0
T Davey, Tom       AAA   9- 8 .529   4.66 39 12 0   0 8 2 106.1 128 437 486 72 55 10 0 2 3 44 0 91 4 0 0 0 0 0
He gets hit way too much for a guy with his heater, so it's clear he has problems with location. Even minor league hitters can hit a great fastball if they know it's coming and have a good idea where it's gonna be. My guess is that he goes deep in a lot of counts and ends up grooving a fastball right down Main Street. If the hitter can get good wood on it, it's a hit; if he chips it, it's a foul ball and if he misses, a K. Davey has another thing working against him: he's not exactly young - he's 25 - so his window of opportunity as a starter may be closing. He still has a good shot at being a solid reliever, but that's not what we're looking for.

Brian Lawrence (SD)
But not everyone has great stuff. So next you look for a guy who can control the strikezone. Someone who doesn't allow a lot of baserunners and can get outs on his own with strikeouts. Brian Lawrence, another Padre prospect, has done a marvelous job on both counts this year.

NAME             LVL   W-L    PCT    ERA   G GS CG SHO GF SV   IP    H   AB TBF   R ER HR SH SF HB BB IB SO WP BK 0H 1H 2H 3H
Lawrence, Brian AAA   2- 0 1.000   1.82   6 6 0   0 0 0 34.2 34 134 145   9   7 4 0 0 4   7 0 33 0 0 0 0 0 0
X Lawrence, Brian AA    7- 6 .538   2.42 21 21 0   0 0 0 126.2 99 457 496 40 34 6 1 0 10 28 0 119 1 0 0 0 0 0
He gets his results from an assortment of good offspeed pitches and great control. While it's possible he could turn into another Greg Maddux or Rick Reed, it's not likely; those guys have immaculate control of 4 pitches. That kind of mastery is rare. Padre GM Kevin Towers thinks Lawrence'll end up as a very solid middle reliever. However, if he continues at his current pace, he could force his way into the rotation a la Brian Tollberg. But like Tollberg, Lawrence (24) will be a bit old to be making his bid for stardom. So we'll need someone a bit younger.

Randey Dorame (Col)
Dorame had a great year in 1999, split between two levels of A ball. He has decent stuff and decent control. He's also fairly young (21) for the level he's competing against.
NAME             LVL   W-L    PCT    ERA   G GS CG SHO GF SV   IP    H   AB TBF   R ER HR SH SF HB BB IB SO WP BK 0H 1H 2H 3H
*Dorame, Randey   AA    0- 2 .000   5.06   2 2 0   0 0 0 10.2   7   40   46   6   6 3 0 0 2   4 0   9 0 0 0 0 0 0
X*Dorame, Randey   AA    3- 4 .429   3.86   9 9 0   0 0 0 58.1 53 213 238 29 25 5 3 3 1 18 0 28 2 1 0 0 0 0
X*Dorame, Randey   A     7- 1 .875   2.21   9 9 2   0 0 0 57.0 50 206 226 15 14 3 3 2 2 13 0 49 2 0 0 0 0 0
However, changing environments can reveal a lot about a pitcher, especially if he gets traded (as Dorame did, from the Dodgers to the Rockies this season), or from a promotion. Dorame began the season pretty much where he left off last year: dominating A-ball hitters. He still fared well upon his promotion, but his control took a serious hit, as did his ability to strike hitters out. By the time he was traded to the Rockies, he was in full fledged flounder mode. Three home runs allowed in a little more than 10 innings pitched will go a long way to slowing down his progress toward the majors. Dorame still has a chance to be a good pitcher in the majors, but it may be a long while before we see him introduced at the All Star game, if ever. We need to find someone who can handle adversity in stride.

Jimmy Osting (Phi)
The Phillies got Jimmy Osting, along with Bruce Chen, in midseason for Andy Ashby. Osting has decent stuff and fine control.
NAME             LVL   W-L    PCT    ERA   G GS CG SHO GF SV   IP    H   AB TBF   R ER HR SH SF HB BB IB SO WP BK 0H 1H 2H 3H
*Osting, Jimmy    AA   3- 1 .750   2.22   8 8 1   1 0 0 48.2 44 175 210 14 12 0 6 2 3 24 2 26 2 0 0 0 0 0
X*Osting, Jimmy    AA   2- 6 .250   2.65 11 11 0   0 0 0 71.1 67 270 302 30 21 6 2 1 0 29 1 52 1 0 0 0 0 0
X*Osting, Jimmy    A    2- 2 .500   3.13   4 4 0   0 0 0 23.0 25   88   94   8   8 0 0 1 0   5 0 17 0 0 0 0 0 0
And even though his strikeout to walk ratio went in the pooper when he was traded, he's still managed to do a very nice job of keeping the opposition from scoring. That's probably because he's made an outstanding adjustment against the hitters in crucial situations. Whereas when he was with Atlanta he probably challenged hitters and thus gave up 6 homers, now he's probably making the hitters try to hit his pitch. If they don't swing, he gives up a walk, which is considerably more desirable than giving up a homer, something he has not done as a Phillie. Still we're looking for an ace, and although Osting (23) will probably be a fine major league pitcher sometime in the next few years, he does not look like our guy.

Nobuaki Yoshida (SD)
The Padres signed 18-year old Nobuaki Yoshida this past January out of high school and he has repaid them handsomely by dominating two levels of competition this year.
NAME             LVL   W-L    PCT    ERA   G GS CG SHO GF SV   IP    H   AB TBF   R ER HR SH SF HB BB IB SO WP BK 0H 1H 2H 3H
*Yoshida, Nobuaki A    1- 0 1.000   3.38   3 3 0   0 0 0 16.0 14   62   65   8   6 2 0 1 0   2 0 19 1 0 0 0 0 0
X*Yoshida, Nobuaki R    0- 2 .000   2.32   7 7 0   0 0 0 31.0 23 108 118 11   8 1 1 1 1   7 0 32 3 1 0 0 0 0
Yoshida has good command of his offspeed pitches, which has resulted in striking out inexperienced hitters at an impressive rate. He's also young enough to reach the majors at an early age, something very common to players and pitchers who become All Stars. In fact, most Hall of Fame players are in the majors by the time they turn 22. However, Yoshida doesn't possess a great fastball, although he will develop more velocity as his body grows. But without that fastball to keep more advanced hitters honest, the chances of him becoming a big-time starter are about the same as Brian Lawrence's: not particularly good.

Dennis Tankersley (SD)
If it seems that there are a lot of Padre pitchers on this list, it's because there are. Few in the media have acknowledged it, but the Pads have one of, if not the most impressive stable of young arms of any organization in baseball. Adam Eaton and Matt Clement are the first to showcase their talents, but Junior Herndon (AAA), Wascar Serrano (AA), Mike Bynum (AA), Jacob Peavy (A), and Gerik Baxter (A) have serious talent and good control, as does this guy, Dennis Tankersley. The Pads acquired him, along with shortstop Cesar Saba, for Ed Sprague at the deadline.
NAME             LVL   W-L    PCT    ERA   G GS CG SHO GF SV   IP    H   AB TBF   R ER HR SH SF HB BB IB SO WP BK 0H 1H 2H 3H
Tankersley, D     A    4- 2 .667   2.67 10 10 0   0 0 0 57.1 40 200 227 21 17 5 2 2 2 21 0 73 1 0 0 0 0 0
X Tankersley, D     A    5- 3 .625   4.06 15 15 1   1 0 0 75.1 73 290 326 41 34 4 0 0 4 32 0 74 1 1 0 0 1 0
Tankersley doesn't have an awesome fastball, but it's plenty good. Since his arrival, Tankersley has had 4 10+ strikeout games. He's also thrown a 2 hitter this year. He's still young enough (21) for his fastball to develop some more velocity, and he certainly has good command of his pitches. Still, A-ball is a long way from the majors and plenty can happen in the couple of years it takes to get there. Injuries are the biggest threat. Florida's Wes Anderson and Houston's Wilfredo Rodriguez began the season in pretty much the same place where Tankersley is finishing this year - young and dominating A-ball. However, arm ailments have sidelined them for much of this year, delaying their major league arrival by at least a year, maybe more.   If Tankersley can avoid the injury bug, he could be a major player down the road. But that's a big if.

Roy Oswalt (Hou)
When this year began, Roy Oswalt didn't seem like a candidate to be the next young ace. He seemed more like a middling prospect. Yes, the 21-year old from Mississippi showed good control, but he didn't have the big time fastball.
NAME             LVL   W-L    PCT    ERA   G GS CG SHO GF SV   IP    H   AB TBF   R ER HR SH SF HB BB IB SO WP BK 0H 1H 2H 3H
Oswalt, Roy      AA   11- 3 .786   1.99 18 17 2   2 0 0 122.0 98 459 489 34 27 5 4 2 3 21 1 131 4 1 0 0 0 0
X Oswalt, Roy      A     4- 3 .571   2.98   8 8 0   0 0 0 45.1 52 177 191 15 15 1 1 1 1 11 0 47 0 1 0 0 0 0
Well, his body caught up to his talent in the year 2000 and when he started to hit 97-mph on the radar gun, people took notice. Armed with the good fastball and excellent control of two offspeed pitches, he's now considered one of the best prospects in baseball. He could be in the Astros rotation by next season. He was selected to represent the US in the Olympics and along with Milwaukee's Ben Sheets will vie for ace of the staff. If US Olympic Team manager Tommy Lasorda and pitching coach Phil Regan can refrain from leaving him out for 140 pitches, he and Scott Elarton should form the nucleus of a very solid rotation in Houston for years to come.

Conclusion
Many in the media have complained about the lack of pitching. However, just below the surface, there is a huge well of young pitching talent ready to emerge. Adam Eaton, Carl Pavano, Ryan Dempster, Rick Ankiel, Kris Benson, Randy Wolf, Scott Elarton, Brad Penny, AJ Burnett and Rob Bell are all in the majors and doing fairly well. Each is under 25 years old.   And that's just in the NL. Oswalt and Ben Sheets are at the top of a similarly large group of impressive arms who will be making their debuts in the next year or two.
The 1930's hallmarked the heyday of offense in baseball. The 1960's did the same for pitching. Thirty years separated the extremes. We are now in the midst of what could be an even greater offensive era than the 30's. If Major League Baseball decides to raise the mound sometime before 2002, as they are now considering, or decides to enforce the strikezone as it is written in the rules, we might see an even greater swing back to the pitching domination of the 60's.