The Next King Felix?
August 15, 2007
Ubaldo Jimenez is not a name that most people were familiar with before
last night. But like Nook Laloosh in "Bull Durham" he finally
announced his presence with authority: six innings of one hit ball with
9 strikeouts against a playoff-level team that he was seeing for the
second time. So who is this guy? Is he someone to keep an
eye on or was last night a fluke?
Short answer: keep an eye on him. Better yet, get him now.
When he was drafted, scouts compared his stuff to that of Felix
Hernandez. He has a fastball that has touched 99 mph (but mostly
sits in
the 93-95 range) that has two plane movement in on right-handers.
He also has a hard, sharp slider and a curve that rivals the best
in recent memory. What I like most about him though is his
willingness to throw his change. That may not sound like much,
especially since it's really just an average
change, but it's a really good sign when a guy as young as Jimenez
wants
to try to pitch rather than try to overpower everyone. That's an
especially
rare characteristic in someone who has stuff as good as his.
Most real and fantasy baseball analysts will look at his numbers in the
minors and warn you that he doesn't have good control and that it's
only
a matter of time before the league catches up with him. He may
have
occasional struggles but only because he's young. However,
Jimenez has shown to be a fairly quick study so there's a good
possibility that he might adjust
as quickly as the league does.
Just look at his numbers in Triple-A
this year. His first start was a disaster and April was not a
good
month overall. But his progression each month was very
encouraging: his
walk rate declined and his groundball rate increased.
Month W L ERA G GS CG SHO
SV IP H R ER HR BB
SO GO/AO AVG
April 1 2 10.90 4 4 0
0 0 17.3 22 23 21 2
14 11 1.05 .310
May 1 1 4.54 6 6 0 0
0 35.6 31 19 18 3 22
30 1.17 .237
June 3 2 6.32 6 6 0 0
0 31.3 40 25 22 4 17
32 1.95 .320
July 3 0 2.89 3 3 1 0
0 18.6 17 7 6 0 9
16 4.75
.254
Guys who strikeout
a lot of guys with improving control and get a ton of groundballs have
a
name: stud. Here is a breakdown of his last seven starts in
Colorado Springs
Date OPP
W L ERA
IP H ER
BB SO
12-Jun @SLC 1
0 1.80 5.0
4 1 4
8
17-Jun FRE 0
1 6.00 6.0
8 4 1
6
23-Jun @POR 1
0 1.80 5.0
5 1 3
5
28-Jun SLC 0
1 6.00 6.0
7 4 2
6
3-Jul POR 1
0 5.40 5.0
6 3 3
5
8-Jul @SLC 1
0 1.35 6.67 5
1 3 8
13-Jul TUC 1
0 2.57 7.0
6 2 3
3 WHIP
Total
3.54 40.67 41
16 19 41 1.4754
While each start taken on its own is not that impressive, the
aggregate ends up being pretty nice for a 22-year old pitching in the
most hitter friendly environment in baseball: four starts in the
launching pad that is Colorado Springs, plus two starts in high
altitude Salt Lake.
It'd be easy to dismiss his first major league start, a tilt against
the punchless Nationals in RFK in which he allowed 7 baserunners and 2
earned runs in 5 innings with 5 strikeouts, as beginner's luck.
But in his
next start in Colorado he scattered 4 hits in 7 innings versus the
Padres with the only
runs coming on a Mike Cameron three-run homer. No shame in that.
His
next start was less than dominating, but still effective enough to keep
the
Dodgers at bay long enough for his first major league win. Yes,
none of those teams boast a powerhouse offense, but with the unbalanced
schedule the Padres and Dodgers will be on his regular schedule.
Two rough
starts against the surging Braves and Cubs drove his asking price down
but
after his last start versus the Padres, people are going to take
notice.
Now like any youngster he's going to show his frustration from time to
time, unravel for an inning and give up a few runs. But the
Rockies have a very under-rated
pitching coach in Bob Apodaca and their catchers do a nice job of
handling
pitchers so I like his chances to exceed most people's
expectations. In
fantasy, getting more production than what you paid for is the formula
for
winning. Long term, I think he has higher upside Jeff Francis; he
certainly has better stuff. I haven't seen the Rockies other
uber-pitching prospect Franklin Morales but I understand
he also has great stuff. But until Morales shows me otherwise,
Jimenez will
be the Rockies best starting pitcher for the near- and intermediate
future.
Speaking of best starting pitchers in a team's history, Jake Peavy is
22
strikeouts from becoming the Padres' all-time leader. He's also
just
30 wins from passing the team's franchise leader, Eric Show, as well as
7 hit batsmen
shy (held
by Joey Hamilton). Should he spend the next four years with the
Padres,
he's a good bet to become the all-time team leader in innings pitched
(745
innings away) and games started (91 starts away). Trevor Hoffman
holds
the team records for ERA, WHIP, saves, hits per 9 and strikeouts per 9
obviously. Those records won't likely ever be challenged by
another Padre.
Interestingly enough, the hitters' side for the Padres is likewise
dominated
but just by one guy: Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn. He owns every
single
significant Padre career hitting record - average, games, plate
appearances,
runs, hits, doubles, triples, total bases, RBI, walks, stolen bases,
extra
base hits, times on base, runs created, sac flies and of course,
singles...
he owns them all except one: home runs. Nat Colbert owns that one
with
163 career homers as a Padre. But here's the weird thing about
that
- no active player is particularly close to breaking it. Phil
Nevin
(156) is #2 but his career looks done. Ryan Klesko (133) is #5.
Steve
Finley is tied for ninth with Carmelo Martinez with 82. The
current
Padre with the most career dingers as a Padre? Would you believe
Khalil
Greene with 66? Brian Giles has 63. Nate Colbert's record
is
quite safe for at least a few more years. Given the burst of home
runs
we've witnessed over the last decade it's pretty wild that a record so
seemingly
easy to surpass has lasted since 1974. And the Padres remain one
of only two teams in the majors that has neither had a player hit for
the cycle or a
pitcher
throw a no-hitter. The other is the Devil Rays, who've been
around for almost 30 fewer years. Strange but true.
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