Stretch Slumpers (08/10/01)
After last week's list of possible stretch run surgers, I suppose I'm obligated to compile a list of the guys I think will falter down the stretch. Although logically I should be able to reverse the statistical indicators to find the guys who should tail off, it doesn't always work that way. Some hitters are naturally over-aggressive, yet are productive despite poor walk/strikeout ratios. Some pitchers are successful despite giving up lots of hits. So other factors have to be considered.
The Starters
What I've tried to do here was isolate specific things that might clue us into possible troubles ahead. First, the starters (stats are for the last 30 days):
PITCHER TM W L ERA G GS CG AB H TB DO TR HR INN R ER BB SO
Anderson, Brian ARI 1 3 5.76 5 5 0 119 39 73 7 0 9 29.2 24 19 3 10
Glavine, Tom ATL 4 0 1.69 6 6 0 148 34 43 6 0 1 42.2 8 8 12 15
Tavarez, Julian CHC 2 2 3.82 5 5 0 112 31 42 5 0 2 30.2 13 13 11 16
Hampton, Mike COL 2 3 9.88 5 5 1 118 41 75 7 0 9 27.1 31 30 9 13
Neagle, Denny COL 0 4 7.81 5 5 0 117 40 76 13 1 7 27.2 26 24 16 20
Levrault, Allen MIL 2 4 4.68 6 6 0 126 29 46 2 0 5 32.2 19 17 11 15
Estes, Shawn SF 1 3 3.73 5 5 0 116 30 42 6 0 2 31.1 17 13 24 24
Hernandez, Livan SF 4 0 4.96 5 5 0 130 39 55 7 3 1 32.2 18 18 17 16
Rueter, Kirk SF 3 1 4.04 6 6 0 138 39 58 11 1 2 35.2 17 16 11 14
Carpenter, Chris TOR 0 5 6.61 6 6 0 131 41 65 6 0 6 31.1 29 23 13 18Brian Anderson has never been a guy who prevented hits very well or struck out a lot of hitters. However, the numbers over the last month show a pitcher even less effective than usual. Given a probable drop-off in run support - the D-backs hitters are all pretty old and creaky - Anderson might get even less valuable.
Tom Glavine has been struggling with the strikezone all year. He still is, as his walk/strikeout ratio is pretty bad. He's just been getting help from a lot of inexperienced hitters lately: 4 of his last 6 starts have been against Baltimore, Cincinnati and Montreal. One of the other starts was against St. Louis, a team which he has always fared well against - 15-5, 3.68 ERA for his career. That kind of good fortune won't likely continue as he faces division rivals down the stretch.
Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle have been getting ripped lately largely because their control has been very spotty. Pitching a combined 6 of their last 10 starts in Coors hasn't helped. Fortunately, 26 of their final 48 games are on the road. Still, 22 are not.
Allen Levrault will eventually be a pretty decent starter some day, but not with control like this. On the bright side, this is well below his minor league career norm.
The Giants have 3 starters on this list, which doesn't bode well for their chances down the stretch. Hey, I was wrong about them winning the World Series last year and I could be wrong about this. But not even Dusty Baker can overcome bad starting pitching and that's what they're getting from 3/5 of their rotation. You allow that many baserunners (an average of 1.6 per inning) and strike out that few batters (4.8 per 9 innings)... eventually those baserunners - and I mean a lot of them - are gonna score.
Chris Carpenter is normally a solid power pitcher but is suffering from some mechanical issues lately. Until he gets straightened out, this kind of performance will continue.
The Hitters
What I looked for with the hitters is guys who have shown poor plate discipline but who's power numbers have camouflaged a potentially ineffective hitter. My reasoning is that a guy who's only value is in slugging, isn't valuable to anyone when he's not.
BATTER TM BA SLG OBA G AB R H TB DO TR HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Anderson, Garret ANA .274 .479 .274 27 117 13 32 56 9 0 5 24 0 24 0 2
Jordan, Brian ATL .325 .571 .329 21 77 13 25 44 1 0 6 19 1 12 2 0
Belliard, Ron MIL .278 .608 .314 25 97 18 27 59 9 1 7 14 3 20 0 0
Sexson, Richie MIL .255 .574 .311 25 94 12 24 54 0 0 10 20 8 28 0 0
Hunter, Torii MIN .234 .447 .270 25 94 13 22 42 3 1 5 13 2 20 0 1
Martinez, Tino NYY .261 .522 .286 27 115 18 30 60 3 0 9 23 4 13 0 0
Burrell, Pat PHI .250 .523 .309 25 88 13 22 46 1 1 7 19 7 23 1 0
Vander Wal, John SF .267 .360 .295 23 75 6 20 27 4 0 1 3 3 23 0 1
Aurilia, Rich SF .271 .607 .304 26 107 19 29 65 3 0 11 28 6 17 0 0
Cruz, Jose Jr. TOR .239 .487 .271 26 113 14 27 55 10 0 6 12 5 26 5 3Garrett Anderson has never drawn a lot of walks, but this is ridiculous. Pitchers will stop giving him pitches to drive and force him either to swing at bad pitches, or take a walk. Either way, his power numbers will drop.
The same goes for Brian Jordan. Caminiti continuing to hit well behind him will alleviate some of the pressure to swing at good pitches, but that kind of discipline goes counter to Jordan's modus operandi.
The Brewers are hitting a lot of homers in their new ballpark. Unfortunately, many of them are solo shots as they don't have anyone getting on base more than 35% of the time. Ron Belliard and Richie Sexson demonstrate this clearly, as between them they've clouted 17 homers in the past month, but only driven in 34 runs. Neither of them will continue their 42 and 60 homer paces (projecting their month's production). It'll be interesting to see how many runs will they drive in without all the 4-baggers.
Everyone in New York was bad-mouthing Tino Martinez for his poor production through the first 3 months of the season. He responded with a monster July. However, that kind of homer power is well beyond anything he's produced over the last 3 1/2 years. So which is more likely - he continues to wallop the ball, despite poor plate discipline, or he reverts back to first-half Tino?
Pat Burrell is in the same boat as Martinez. Burrell is still young so there's a chance he could grow out of this overly-aggressive phase. Probably won't be this year though. The bigger question is if neither Burrell or Martinez can sustain their current level of production, how much will it affect their teams' postseason aspirations down the stretch?
John VanderWal has been pretty ineffective the past month. A change in scenery might help. However, moving to a tougher park to hit in will not.
Rich Aurilia has a history of fast starts and slow second halves: .288/.343/.448 pre-AllStar, .257/.320/.417 post-AllStar for the last 3 years. This year, he certainly got off to a fast start, hitting .356/.398/.558 before the break. Will his second half drop off be as dramatic? If he doesn't continue slugging homers at his current rate, yes.
Jose Cruz is kind of a surprise entrant here as he has been much better in the second half over the last 3 years: .229/.328/.415 in the first half, .266/.358/.475 in the second. Perhaps the many trade rumors surrounding him have affected his attitude and focus. He has been playing with some nagging injuries all year. Who knows? But these kind of numbers don't bode well for any quick turnarounds over the final month and a half.
This week in Sandbox
The Mock Woodmen have been fairly close for most of the season and after a huge 2 weeks - 823 points - have finally caught and passed ...Jumanji!. However, their stay at the top probably won't be a long one.
For one, over the course of the season, a team producing 823 points every two weeks would tally over 10,500 points. While that kind of total is certainly possible, it doesn't seem likely in a league where the talent is as dispersed as it is in this one. Early on, I thought ...Jumanji! had a shot at 10,000, but everything would have to go well. Right now I'm looking at a finishing total of around 9150. But there's still an outside shot at 9500 if some of my underachievers get hot. SFMW is currently on pace for around 8990.
Secondly, while 10,000+ is within the realm of possibility, it's not very likely from a team that hadn't even been averaging 345 a week for the season. In addition, ...Jumanji! had just come off it's least productive 2 weeks this season - 615 points - after averaging 357 a week. Since neither roster has seen any dramatic personnel changes recently, it's unlikely that either of those 2-week production levels are sustainable. I won't even get into the talent/career year issue.
Lastly, the SFMW have posted 11 more starts than ...Jumanji! and are 3 ahead of the major league pace. That means at some point, they will have to forgo 3 starts. Meanwhile, ...Jumanji! is 8 starts behind the major league pace, meaning that they can make up 8 extra starts down the stretch. Checking the schedule, 4 of ...Jumanji!'s starters - Morris, Wood, Vazquez and Armas Jr. - finish (their final 5 opponents, from September 10 to the end of the season) against teams in situations (home/away) they have historically dominated (more innings pitched than hits allowed, ERAs 3 or less and at least three times as many strikeouts as walks). Three others - Rusch, Miller and Mulder - have similar success against 4 of their final 5 opponents. If Matt Clement continues to pitch as well as he has the last 5 outings - 3-1, 30 IP, 31 hits, 10 walks, 31 Ks, 4.20 ERA - and Dustin Hermanson continues his solid pitching (2.12 ERA, 1.147 WHIP over the last month) ...Jumanji! will have no trouble making up those starts with quality outings.
I saw an interview with Rick Ankiel this past week, and based on it - he was visibly disturbed when asked about the possibility of making a return to the major leagues this season... not good - and the decision made by the Cards to keep him in the low minors for the next month, I think his chances of making an impact on this year's Sandbox race are remote. That, along with how well Clement has been pitching lately prompted a move.
The Standings
Starting P Relief P Hitters FP
Rank Team FP G FP/G FP G FP/G FP G FP/G Total
1 SF Mock Woodmen 1680 118 14.2 740 95 7.8 3780 1095 3.5 6200
2 ... Jumanji! 1743 107 16.3 754 97 7.8 3671 1100 3.3 6168
3 BaseballHQ Bombers 1862 114 16.3 844 107 7.9 3238 1099 2.9 5944
4 Sandbox Sports 1775 120 14.8 802 100 8.0 3167 1100 2.9 5744
5 Fantasy Baseball HQ 1760 112 15.7 966 112 8.6 2969 1099 2.7 5695
6 Dr. Stats Juggernauts 2114 118 17.9 806 97 8.3 2701 1061 2.5 5621
7 Desert Dwelling Scalawags 1748 142 12.3 508 98 5.2 3209 1109 2.9 5465
8 WSS Hurlers 1946 122 16.0 537 98 5.5 2863 1053 2.7 5346
9 The Write Stuff 1779 106 16.8 681 95 7.2 2885 1063 2.7 5345
10 Press Room Pundits 1722 116 14.8 646 106 6.1 2899 1111 2.6 5267