The Opposite of Runs
August 7, 2005
It was kids' day at RFK on Sunday. Kids brought out the line-up
cards, they did the pre-game on both radio and TV, they announced the
batters as they came to the plate during the first two innings... even
before the game a kid ran to each position on the field and was
introduced by the PA announcer before the National's players took the
field at their positions. Maybe Frank Robinson should have just
left the kids on the field, because with the line-up he used today they
couldn't have done much worse. Carlos Baerga batting
clean-up? I'm not making this up. I did some research,
although it was by no means comprehensive, and I couldn't find a single
instance in Baerga's career - even when he was good - that he ever
batted clean-up. Maybe Frank lost a bet. Or maybe it was
Truth or Dare day in the National's dugout and Frank got tired of
telling it like it is and decided to take the dare instead. In
any case, the line-up also featured Tony Blanco and Matt Cepicky, which
meant than in each of the last three times one of the National's corner
outfielders had come to the plate, they had struck out. Ryan
Church, today's centerfielder, might have made it a threesome, but he
had grounded out in one of his four at bats the night before. In
the other three, however, he did strike out.
Maybe Frank was tired of losing one-run games and wanted to make sure
that his team lost by much more today. Just as an update, after
last night's loss, the Nationals have lost 13 straight one-run
games. The old major league record was 11. The Nationals
are the only team in history to win 10 consecutive one-run games and
also lose 10 consecutive one-run games in the same season. I'm
not sure any other team has even come close. And they are still
on pace to come close, perhaps even break the record for most one-run
games in a season.
I have a theory as to why the Nats are involved in so many close
games. It stems from the fact that RFK is one of the toughest
parks to homer in, not just this year but in history. While the
sample is still small relatively speaking, the park has depressed home
run production by 38% over neutral parks this year. One has to go
back to the Astrodome when it first opened in the mid-60s to find a
park this tough. But Houston brought in it's fences in later
years so one has to go back more than 50 years to ballparks like Forbes
Field and Braves Field - no, not in Atlanta, or even Milwaukee... back
when the Braves played in Boston (!) - to find a park that depressed
home run production over it's lifespan as much as the National's home
field. Maybe with the ball carrying a little better in recent
days, homers won't continue to be so rare. But up to this point
plenty of balls that would have been home runs in just about any other
park have either fallen for doubles or outs. Not to state the
obvious, but this robs offenses of at least two extra bases, meaning
runners who would automatically have scored in another park can still
end up stranded. Hitting home runs is the quickest way to have a
big inning but if that is taken away by the ballpark, then each team
generally needs to put together several hits to generate a big
inning. Without the big inning, it's harder to create large leads
which means the scores are closer and therefore susceptible to becoming
one run games because managers can employ one-run strategies more
often. In essence, it makes "small ball" an acceptable form of
offensive philosophy. Each team will still score 2-4 runs per
contest due to the other events that happen regularly in a game -
walks, singles, errors, etc. - so the overall run scoring will be
somewhat depressed (as evidenced by RFK's 0.845 park factor for runs)
but the number of blowouts will be quite rare thus creating a high
degree of likelihood for one-run games. I don't have any data to
support this other than observing 40 or so games first-hand.
Maybe someone else knows for sure one way or the other.
Whatever the case, the point may be moot as the ball is definitely
carrying much better than it did even last month. If you recall,
a while back I wrote about the fate of flyballs that travelled above
the second deck: they simply died and fell harmlessly before the
warning track. When the Diamondbacks played in the opening series
against the Nats, Troy Glaus hit bombs in each of the three games and
all he had to show for them were three very high and long outs.
Had he hit the same balls this week, he would have three Sportscenter
highlights. How do I know? Because after no visiting team
had hit more than 2 homers in any game this year, the Dodgers banged 4
out on Tuesday. Before the Dodgers (ranked 8th in the NL in
homers, 10th on the road)) and Padres (12th in the NL, 5th on the road)
arrived, National's pitching had allowed just 25 homers at home all
year. But in the past six games they have given up 8 homers
including an upper deck shot by - are you ready for this? - Eric
Young. When Eric Young can put one in the luxury boxes but Troy
Glaus can't get to the warning track, you have to know that something
pretty significant has changed. Anyway...
Some managers prefer to weave in their bench players into the line-up,
giving the regulars an occasional break but still leaving the regular
line-up largely in tact. Not Frank Robinson. When he wants
to concede a game, he makes it rather obvious. Especially since
opposing the Nats today was Padre ace and defending ERA champ Jake
Peavy. Against that line-up I really thought I was going to be
witness to something special today. And I almost did. In
the sixth inning, Peavy struck out Cristian Guzman on three pitches
(boy, did I ever get it wrong on that guy this pre-season). Then
he struck out Nick Johnson on three pitches. I thought just
maybe... because the next batter was Baerga. I don't know how
often it's happened in the history of baseball, but a pitcher striking
out the side on 9 pitches doesn't happen that often. My guess is
that happens about as often as a no-hitter. Sure enough, Peavy
got strike one, then strike two. One pitch away from a small bit
of history... so of course, he hits Baerga with the next pitch.
Ugh. So I had to settle for Peavy's second shut-out this season,
a 10-strikeout masterpiece. OK, so there are worse ways to spend
a Sunday.