Ammo for the Stretch Run (08/03/01)
There are just 2 months left in the fantasy season and the chances of making a trade that will significantly impact the standings are beginning to dwindle. By the time the fantasy trading deadline arrives - in most leagues it's August 31 - simply too much of the season has passed for a single player change to have a dramatic impact on your team's fortunes. Of course, there are exceptions, but making a trade with the belief that a pitcher will go 5-0 with a 0.00 ERA in the final month, or that a hitter will hit .500 with 15 homers is just wishful thinking.
The time to trade is now and the players to trade for are the ones who've slipped under the radar. Look, trading for a big name player will often yield big results, but the price may end up costing you more than you get in return. Trading for a player who is perceived to be having a mediocre season but is actually heating up for a terrific final stretch doesn't cost nearly as much and will have much the same effect as trading for the stars - you moving up in the standings.
Starters plus one
So I've assembled a list of players who have playing very well recently, who have a history of solid play but have struggled this year, and are in good situations to finish the season with a bang. First the starting pitchers. The guys I look for are the ones with high strikeout totals per innings pitched, and solid baserunners ratio (walks+hits/innings pitched)
PITCHER TM W L ERA G CG AB H TB DO TR HR INN R ER BB IBB SO
Appier, Kevin NYM 0 2 3.07 5 0 104 24 34 4 0 2 29.1 12 10 9 1 26
Arrojo, Rolando BOS 0 1 2.54 5 0 103 20 28 5 0 1 28.1 8 8 6 0 25
Bere, Jason CHC 1 1 2.76 5 0 117 24 44 8 0 4 32.2 11 10 7 2 44
Dotel, Octavio HOU 0 0 .56 11 0 56 6 7 1 0 0 16.0 1 1 4 0 27
Durbin, Chad KC 1 2 3.38 5 1 127 32 48 7 0 3 34.2 15 13 7 0 22
Halladay, Roy TOR 1 1 2.93 5 0 118 32 38 6 0 0 30.2 10 10 10 0 31
Hermanson, Dustin STL 3 1 2.38 5 0 125 27 47 6 1 4 34.0 11 9 10 0 32
Ortiz, Ramon ANA 3 1 3.63 5 0 129 30 49 10 0 3 34.2 15 14 9 0 28
Rusch, Glendon NYM 2 1 2.87 5 0 113 23 38 1 1 4 31.1 10 10 5 0 24
Schmidt, Jason SF 2 3 2.25 5 0 123 23 43 2 0 6 36.0 11 9 6 0 31
Valdes, Ismael ANA 2 2 2.03 4 0 98 22 34 6 0 2 26.2 6 6 5 0 19
Vazquez, Javier MTL 3 1 2.52 5 1 144 29 46 3 1 4 39.1 13 11 6 0 38
Wolf, Randy PHI 2 1 3.00 5 1 93 18 29 3 1 2 27.0 9 9 3 0 21A number of these pitchers have season ERAs much higher than what they've posted over the past month. Several, including Appier, Bere, Rusch, Schmidt and Wolf, have improved chances for wins due to recent trades. Others - Durbin, Ortiz and Halladay - are young starters finally figuring out how to pitch. Hermanson seems to be taking to Dave Duncan's instruction and looks poised for a solid second half a la Andy Benes in 1996 when he went 13-2 with a 3.18 ERA down the stretch. The reason I included Dotel here instead of in the closers group is 1) he wants to be a starter, although I think he's becoming more comfortable with the idea of relieving, and 2) there's little to no chance that he will supplant Billy Wagner as the Astros' closer. Because of his high strikeout total, he is a valuable pitcher even in 5x5 leagues. Only 6 of the starters listed here have more strikeouts than Dotel, but they pitched twice as many innings. And a 0.56 ERA is always helpful.
Hitters
For the hitters, I looked for guys with decent plate discipline who were getting a good number of at bats and had either showed potential to perform at a very high level, or had previously displayed a higher level of performance than they've shown this season.
BATTER TM BA SLG OBA G AB R H TB DO TR HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Boone, Aaron CIN .369 .631 .433 22 84 16 31 53 7 0 5 18 10 13 3 1
Cabrera, Orlando MTL .306 .510 .340 24 98 12 30 50 5 0 5 16 5 9 3 2
Caminiti, Ken ATL .300 .557 .380 22 70 8 21 39 3 0 5 9 9 11 0 0
Cora, Alex LA .333 .451 .414 18 51 8 17 23 6 0 0 4 6 6 0 0
Damon, Johnny OAK .316 .469 .385 24 98 22 31 46 7 1 2 4 10 8 4 3
Finley, Steve ARI .361 .557 .426 19 61 11 22 34 3 0 3 9 7 7 6 1
Giambi, Jeremy OAK .337 .512 .426 23 86 18 29 44 6 0 3 20 14 17 0 0
Guillen, Carlos SEA .315 .397 .386 22 73 9 23 29 4 1 0 6 9 14 2 0
Ibanez, Raul KC .347 .571 .492 21 49 8 17 28 3 1 2 8 14 5 0 0
Martin, Al SEA .309 .545 .365 18 55 9 17 30 4 0 3 13 5 10 2 1
Nixon, Trot BOS .338 .506 .409 21 77 12 26 39 7 0 2 10 10 18 1 0
Renteria, Edgar STL .303 .408 .349 21 76 10 23 31 2 0 2 9 5 8 6 1
Young, Eric CHC .315 .393 .384 22 89 15 28 35 7 0 0 6 9 6 10 1Lankford, Ray SD .262 .405 .304 13 42 4 11 17 1 1 1 4 3 15 1 0
Whether due to age, injury or the new "strikezone" Finley, Caminiti and Young have struggled through the first half of the year. Most of the guys on this list, however, are fairly young and are just starting to show signs of their minor league promise. Johnny Damon is the only non-surprise on this list as it is usually about this time of the year that he heats up. I could only find one catcher who seems to be turning it up right now after struggling earlier, but Mike Piazza is not exactly what I'd term a sleeper. Al Martin is an interesting add to this list; between he and Mark McLemore, the Mariners may have an effective platoon in left field. The reason there aren't far more hitters than pitchers is that their performance over the course of a season, and over the course of a career for that matter, doesn't fluctuate as much as that of a pitcher generally, making it less likely that their performance would be mis-evaluated. Which means if a hitter is any good, more likely than not, by this time in the season, someone already knows about him.
I included Ray Lankford on this list also. He doesn't have the requisite plate discipline I like to see, but he does have something to prove now that he's been traded after his percieved lack of respect from Cardinal management. Despite the high number of strikeouts, he's still a pretty productive player and should get a good deal of playing time in San Diego, maybe as many as 150 at bats over the final 2 months. With enough motivation (and I think he has it) and opportunity, he could come close to equalling his season production to date.
Closers
And finally, what stretch run would be complete without a few closers who came out of nowhere. Each of these guys is pitching the best ball in bullpens that are in flux. That means if they keep pitching as well as they are now, even the most myopic manager will realize their value.
PITCHER TM W L ERA G SV AB H TB DO TR HR INN R ER BB IBB SO
DeJean, Mike MIL 1 0 1.80 13 0 55 11 14 3 0 0 15.0 4 3 4 2 14
Groom, Buddy BAL 0 1 2.25 11 5 46 11 20 3 0 2 12.0 3 3 3 0 7
Guardado, Eddie MIN 1 0 2.70 10 0 37 8 14 3 0 1 10.0 3 3 3 0 11
Karsay, Steve ATL 1 1 3.38 9 3 41 10 20 1 0 3 10.2 4 4 1 0 11
Kline, Steve STL 1 0 .00 13 3 44 5 6 1 0 0 14.0 0 0 2 1 15
Lincoln, Mike PIT 0 0 2.19 9 0 46 12 17 2 0 1 12.1 3 3 1 0 6
Stewart, Scott MTL 0 0 2.45 12 2 23 2 5 0 0 1 7.1 2 2 1 0 4
Zambrano, Victor TB 3 0 .52 10 1 63 12 17 2 0 1 17.1 1 1 4 0 16
This Week in Sandbox
It was just one of those weeks for ...Jumanji! as several of the starters got whacked and a few of the hitters suffered some nagging injuries. Those kind of things happen to every team so the best remedy is to look at the big picture and evaluate the season rather than the week.
So after much debate with myself, I decided that this week was the final straw for Kip Wells' season on the team. I expect Wells will eventually become a fine starter for the White Sox. But he's been struggling with control for more than a month now and is losing value fast in a mixed league. If this were a keeper league or an AL only, I think it'd be a different story; I would have been inclined to keep him on the bench until he gets sorted out. But there are simply too many other good options at starting pitcher to hold on to more than one struggling youngster. So I acquired Dustin Hermanson off the waiver wire to replace him. As I pointed out earlier in this column, Hermanson has been pretty good lately and certainly has the talent to finish with a flourish. Even though his team seems to have a small issue with management's direction - trading away Jason Christiansen and Ray Lankford in a hot division race - I think the Cards are still talented enough to make a run at the division title and offer Hermanson enough support to get valuable wins.
The Standings
Starting P Relief P Hitters FP
Rank Team FP G FP/G FP G FP/G FP G FP/G Total
1 ...Jumanji! 1587 98 16.2 727 94 7.7 3514 1043 3.4 5828
2 SF Mock Woodmen 1484 110 13.5 685 89 7.7 3578 1031 3.5 5747
3 BaseballHQ Bombers 1661 100 16.6 798 100 8.0 3061 1033 3.0 5520
4 Fantasy Baseball HQ 1664 105 15.8 945 108 8.8 2793 1034 2.7 5402
5 Sandbox Sports 1619 113 14.3 761 96 7.9 977 1036 2.9 5357
6 Dr. Stats Juggernauts 2064 112 18.4 733 91 8.1 2514 998 2.5 5311
7 Desert Dwelling Scalawags 1682 134 12.6 452 92 4.9 3055 1049 2.9 5189
8 The Write Stuff 1695 99 17.1 644 90 7.2 2723 1006 2.7 5062
9 Press Room Pundits 1594 110 14.5 614 94 6.5 2749 1045 2.6 4957
10 WSS Hurlers 1724 112 15.4 506 92 5.5 2671 993 2.7 4901