Assessing the
Deadline Deals
August 1, 2016
This
was one of the busiest and most interesting trade deadlines in recent memory;
eighteen trades occurred in the final 24 hours. Several teams made themselves
considerably better and for the first time in two decades, the Yankees were
sellers. So in no particular order, here’s how I see each of the major
transactions that occurred.
Jonathan Lucroy and Jeremy Jeffress to Rangers for PTBNL, Lewis Brinson and Luis Ortiz
+ Carlos Beltran to Rangers for Dillon Tate, Nick Green and Eric Swanson
Getting
both Lucroy and Beltran gave the Rangers the most
potent offense in the majors. They already had Ian Desmond, Nomar
Mazara, Adrian Beltre, Roughned Odor, Jurickson Profar and Elvis Andrus, and adding two more impact bats
gave them a line-up where every spot is a threat to go deep. That’s tough to
pitch to in a playoff situation. They are a little on the young side and no one
has particularly high contact rates so it’s possible to get through them
unscathed but for three or four times through? Cleveland will make an
interesting match-up with all their power arms but teams that don’t have a lot
of strikeout pitchers like Baltimore and Toronto will have tough going. The
addition of Jeffress just adds another power arm to a
bullpen that already has four guys who throw 95+ and one (Dario Alvarez) who’s
just shy of it.
What
is very interesting to me – at least from the Rangers perspective – is that
they did not surrender Joey Gallo in the trade to the Brewers, as had been
rumored. The Rangers had already given an extension to Adrian Beltre so Gallo wasn’t going to find playing time at his
natural position, third base. His playing time would have to come from either
the outfield, first base or DH spots. Shin Soo Choo is signed through 2020 and Mazara
has pretty well established himself so unless Gallo suddenly became a standout
centerfielder he wasn’t going to be playing much in the outfield either.
Beltran’s contract expires after this season, as does Desmond’s and Mitch
Moreland’s. Desmond has done a pretty good job in center after a rough start to
the season so the Rangers might be interested in bringing him back if they can
afford his demands. He’ll have a number of suitors this winter. Depending on how
well he hits, particularly in the post-season, the Rangers may or may not want
to re-sign Beltran. If he’s the hero of a World Championship run I can’t
imagine them not giving him at least two more years. Which
leaves Mitch Moreland. He’s not that expensive right now – a little less
than $6 million – but he’s pretty much the same player as Gallo only with five
more years of major league service time. The fact that they didn’t deal Gallo
but instead dealt their #2 and #3 prospects indicates to me that Gallo will be
their starting first baseman in 2017.
Andrew Miller to the Indians for Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield,
Ben Heller and JP Feyereisen
While the Indians might not have as many
hard throwers in their bullpen as the Rangers, their bullpen is definitely a strength. Adding Miller to the mix only makes it moreso. One could reasonably argue that the Indians have
the best pitching staff in the majors, top to bottom and could conceivably give
the Cubs nightmares like they experienced in last year’s post-season against
the Mets were the two to meet in the Series. What’s more is that Miller is
under contract for a couple more years, as are the other major contributors on
the staff, so this group has a pretty nice window of opportunity.
People have been raving about the
return the Yankees obtained in this and the Chapman deal but I don’t see it.
Frazier is a nice player but I don’t see him becoming a star. Both he and
Mark Melancon to the Nationals for
Felipe Rivero and Taylor Hearn
For
half a decade the Detroit Tigers had the best team in the majors, but because
they did not have anyone to close out games - and I mean to shut down the
opposition without even a whimper – they failed to win it all. For years they
had the best pitcher and the best hitter and a supporting cast that could have
been a contender even without them. And yet for lack of one guy to get those
last three outs they have nothing to show for it. Each year, Dave Dombrowski would trot out a “closer” who was supposed to
solve their problem but was clearly way past his prime, or a young flamethrower
who was supposed to evolve into a ninth inning monster but never materialized.
All he had to do was shell out a prospect or two to get THE guy. And he never
did. It ended up being a death by paper cuts.
I
bring this up because this is the course that Mike Rizzo appears to be taking as
well. Last year, Drew Storen was solid but had a
history of looking like a deer in the headlights on the big stage of October.
So he went out and traded for a closer. Unfortunately it was for Jonathan Papelbon, who was obviously well past his prime, arguably
not as effective as Storen and a pain in the neck in
the clubhouse. This year, again all the Nats needed
was just one guy to take the ninth and make the game Dusty-proof. There were a
couple of options available in Aroldys Chapman and
Andrew Miller. Craig Kimbrel could have been had as
well. But Rizzo didn’t want to pony up the prospects and instead opted for Mark
Melancon. Don’t get me wrong, Melancon
is good; he’s got more saves than anyone over the past three years and a
stellar ERA. But the number of saves he got was a function of how the Pirates
play baseball – they rely heavily on their bullpen (since 2013 they’ve only pitched two complete
games as a team, fewest in the majors) – and the ERA is largely a function of
the park he pitches in (1.59 ERA at PNC). There’s also another concern that is
not revealed by the numbers – pitch selection. In
From
the Pirates side, again, they look to have bettered themselves as Rivero has the type of arm that finishes games; he just
needs some seasoning in a set-up role to get acclimated to the pressure. By the
time the Bucs are ready to part with Tony Watson, who now moves into the 9th
inning role, he’ll be ready to take over.
Francisco Liriano, Reese McGuire and
Harold Ramirez to the Blue Jays for Drew Hutchison + Ivan Nova to Pirates for
two PTBNL
Hutchison and Nova are two intriguing
fairly young arms to add to the Pirates rotation and giving up Liriano and his $13 million salary seems to be a fair
trade-off. Liriano still has the stuff to dominate
for a stretch and that’s what the Blue Jays are hoping to find. It’s an
interesting challenge trade on both sides as neither
Hutchison or Nova has developed as well as expected and Liriano has struggled to regain his all-star form. That
said, if I had to bet I would go with the Pirates end
of this one as they will have a better park, better league to pitch in and one
of the best pitching coaches in the game to get them back on track.
Matt Moore to Giants for Matt Duffy, Michael Santos and Lucius Fox
Although a big deal has been made of
Matt Duffy being included in this deal I don’t know that he’s not pretty easily
replaceable. He had a great season last year but that was pretty much the best
we’ll see of him. There’s not a lot of physical growth left in his body. In
exchange, the Giants acquired one of the better left-handed arms in baseball.
He’s still refining in his recovery from Tommy John surgery but he has
tremendous talent. I can’t imagine the Dodger line-up - with all their
left-handed batters – is looking forward to facing both him and Bumgarner in a three game set. Sure, they match-up when Kerhsaw
is on the mound but what about the other days? Which reminds
me…
Josh Reddick and Rich Hill to the
Dodgers for Jharel Colton, Frankie Montas and Grant Holmes
I like the Josh Reddick
end of this deal as he is an underrated player who can help his team win in a
lot of ways. I like this aspect even more if the Dodgers find a taker for Yasiel Puig or one of their other
outfielders so they don’t have the logjam distraction again. What I’m not as
keen on is the Dodger front office’s propensity to make smart deals rather than
good ones. I’ll illustrate: no one questions that both Brett Anderson and
Brandon McCarthy are talented pitchers. And when they are healthy they can shut
just about anyone down. But when are they healthy? In 11 seasons in the majors,
McCarthy has had two in which he pitched more than 135 innings. In Brett
Anderson’s seven seasons he’s also had only two healthy years. So yeah, anyone
would look like a genius to have these guys when they are healthy but by
percentage that has only happened 22% of the time. Similarly, Rich Hill has
pitched 12 years in the bigs and has only once threw more than 100 innings. So how many pitchers like this
does a team have to have under contract in order to be assured to get one full
season out of that rotation spot? At this rate the Dodgers could have the best
rotation ever; the only drawback would be that they would have to have a 16-man
rotation. So, sure, the Dodgers have a chance to have an incredible rotation in
the post-season. But with Kershaw’s return uncertain, they also have as good a
chance of having Ross Stripling as their ace. For a team that desperately needs
certainty in the rotation, this was a pointless trade.
Jay Bruce to Mets for Dilson Herrera and
Max Wotell
This one was another trade that I
don’t get. Jay Bruce is a fine player but much of his value comes from playing
in Great America Ballpark. At home he hits .254/.328/.502; on the road it’s
.244/.310/.439. That’s almost 100 points in OPS and for a player who really
only plays right field. That doesn’t actually help a Mets team that already has
a right fielder in Curtis Granderson and a young
corner outfielder in Michael Conforto who just needs
playing time. A few years ago Granderson played
center but doesn’t really have the range for it any more and Yoennis Cespedes can’t play
center full time so basically they’ll be asking a corner outfielder to play
center every day of the week even though it won’t be the same guy every day in
center. Even though Bruce is having a nice bounceback
year it looks to me as though the Mets just traded for an older version of
Michael Conforto. What makes it even more puzzling is
that they gave up Dilson Herrera, who was supposed to
take over at second base for Neil Walker after his contract expired at the end
of this season. So trading for a player
you already have by giving up a key piece to your future? Someone else will
have to explain that one.
Hector
Here’s another deal that didn’t make
much sense to me.
Will Smith to the Giants for Andrew Susac
and Phil Bickford
When
the Giants won it all in 2010, 2012 and 2014 their bullpen was a significant
strength and interestingly they weren’t blessed with an overabundance of
hard-throwers. They were efficient but they all gave hitters a different look
so that each inning they could never get comfortable with an eye level or arm
angle. It was like hitters were facing a Hindu god of pitching. Smith will be
assuming the Jeremy Affeldt role as the primary lefty
who can also be used against right-handed hitters. The key for their success,
however, will be if Casilla can keep it together in
the ninth.
Brandon Guyer to the Indians for Nathan Lukes and Jhonleider Salinas
This one was not a bad deal
considering that the Tribe ranked 20th in OPS against lefties. Guyer can’t hit right-handers but he is devastating against
left-handers. His impact during the regular season might not be that great as
the Tigers, Twins and Royals only have one lefty each in their respective
rotations but the Indians still have tilts against the Rangers and the Astros,
both of whom have tough lefties. And of course there’s their division rival,
the White Sox, who have three lefties. Still, this move was more about October
than August and September where they’re likely to be facing off against either
the Rangers (Hamels and Perez), Red Sox, (Price, Pomeranz and Rodriguez) or Blue Jays (Happ
and Liriano).
Steve Pearce to the Orioles for Jonah Heim
Other
than Joe Maddon, I don’t think there is any
competition as to who the best manager in the major leagues is: Buck Showalter.
For the Orioles to have been as successful as they have been for the last three
or four seasons without one top 30 starter is amazing. I can’t think of anyone
in history who has done more with less starting pitching. He does it by using
all 25 players on the roster and it seems like he is especially adept at
knowing the perfect situation to employ each player’s unique talents. So even
though Pearce is a position player and has no place to play regularly,
Showalter will find a way to make him impactful. That’s what he does. And who
knows, he might find a way to use him in the bullpen, too.
Joe Smith to Cubs for Jesus Castillo
Smith gives the Cubs another look
(another style that can’t easily be picked up by batters) with an effective arm
for an already excellent bullpen.
Jesse Chavez to the
Dodgers for Mike Bolsinger
Yawn.
Josh Fields
to the Dodgers for Yordan Alvarez
Fields is an intriguing arm – definitely upper end of the velocity
spectrum. But he’s been that for a decade and still no closer to being
reliable.
Jon Niese to the Mets for Antonio Bastardo
Two pitchers who went to better
situation yet failed to take advantage and are now back where they started.
Final Assessment:
The teams that helped themselves the
most were the Rangers, Indians, Giants and Pirates. The Twins and Brewers did
nice jobs of preparing for next year with their deals, too. I was underwhelmed
by the Nationals’ moves, but fortunately they inhabit the same division as the
Mets who were even more puzzling. The
Dodgers still seem like they’d rather be smart than good which may come back to
bite them because the