Crazy Train
July 29, 2005
No one has to wonder anymore how badly the San Diego Padres wanted to
get rid of Phil Nevin. They traded him for Chan Ho Park.
Just so this is clear, the Padres already had a pitcher who had
been so bad that even the Rangers didn't want him... his name was Pedro
Astacio. But the Pads had picked him up off waivers. They
wanted to get rid of Nevin so badly that they actually traded for another Astacio, only
this one has $20 million owed to him over the next two years.
It's one thing to trade for a guy making league minimum, but quite
another to trade for the same guy making an average of $10 million a
year. Actually, Park has been worse than Astacio in that after
April, Park has yet to post and ERA under 5.40 or a WHIP under
1.60 in any month. Overall, his numbers since the beginning of
May are 6.35
ERA and a WHIP of 1.828; Astacio's are 6.80 ERA and
a WHIP of 1.533. This season, Astacio has had 7 starts in which
he allowed 2 earned runs or less; Park has had the same number but
needed 6 more starts to do it. The same pitcher essentially, huge
difference in salary.
There is, however, a significant difference between the two
pitchers. Astacio's problem in Texas was keeping the ball in the
park. His WHIP was an acceptable 1.44 and his K/BB ratio was a
fine 2.74/1. What drove his ERA into the stratosphere was the 14
homers in 77 innings. The gopheritis is an issue that is
exacerbated by the park in Texas, but mitigated by Pecto's spacious
dimensions. Park doesn't have that problem. Home runs have
not been an issue with him as he's allowed only 8 all year.
Park's problems, to be blunt, is that he simply stinks. He can't
find the strikezone, as his 54 walks in 109 innings so obviously
attests, and when he does, it has been right down the middle (unless
you'd like to blame the 130 hits he's given up on bad defense).
Unlike Astacio, it hasn't been about getting unlucky with one pitch
here and there; Park has been terrible with lots of pitches and that's
not something a change of parks can cure. The result is that the
Pads are willing to choke themselves to
death both in the rotation and in the payroll to get rid of
Nevin. It is, by definition, a suicidal urge. That's how
badly the Padres wanted to get rid of him.
Astacio will likely get
moved to the bullpen (or dumped) and Park will take his turn getting
pounded regularly until the Padres lose possession of first
place. Employing Nevin as the bat boy probably would have been
more
constructive than this trade. The Padres only hope in this is
that the Park they get is the one who's allowed three runs or less in
five of his last 8 starts, not the one who has allowed five or more
runs in five of his last 10.
The plan for Nevin is for him to DH against lefties, moving David
Dellucci to the outfield. Career-wise, Nevin has been a terror
against left-handers, hitting .305 and slugging .564 against
them. But this year, he's hardly any better (.711 OPS vs .694
OPS) and has actually hit worse (.228 vs .267). While Nevin will
likely enjoy some gains from switching ballparks, it's not a
given. This year his numbers at home are not significantly
different than they are on the road (.696 vs .703). Even last
year, when he complained so much about the effects of Petco, there
wasn't a huge difference and it most of that was due to the difference
in batting average, not isolated power (.265/.364/.465 vs
.310/.371/.516). Those who bid on him expecting a sudden return
to his 40-home run form of 2001 are probably going to be quite
disappointed.
The Manny Ramirez rumors are interesting from the Red Sox point of view
because anyone they get in return will be a downgrade
offensively. The last rumor that almost made it to reality was
that they would get Aubrey Huff and Mike Cameron in trade. But
where would everyone play? Cameron gives them a centerfielder for
next year so they wouldn't have to worry about signing Johnny Damon,
but if he plays left this year, where does that put Huff? He's
too good of a player to platoon in right field with Nixon and they
already have Kevin Millar and John Olerud at first with Roberto
Petagine wasting his time in AAA. Even with Manny unhappy
he's still one of the most productive hitters in the AL (.941 OPS - 6th
in OPS for players who qualify). How much defense is enough to
make up the difference? Hard to say, really, but it'd have to be
a lot with Mike Cameron's output (.820). It's a great trade for
the BoSox to make this winter because they can simply replace Manny
with Huff and Damon with Cameron and spend money otherwise earmarked
for Damon on pitching or other concerns. But I'm not sure it
makes much sense for them to overflow their roster with full-time
players in the middle of a pennant chase.
Eric Byrnes was traded for the second time in a month, this time to the
Orioles. He's a good all around player, but he's two years older
than Larry Bigbie, the player he was traded for. So is he really
that much better? Bigbie had a career .276 average (.340 OBA)
with 45 doubles and 26 homers in 930 ABs coming into this season.
Byrnes, in 1125 ABs, had a .271 average (.336 OBA) with 71 doubles and
38 homers. They both offer good defense in left, so on the
surface, I'd have to say that on the strength of his greater slugging
percentage Byrnes is the guy to have. However, there's still
those two years in age difference. At the same age as Bigbie,
Byrnes ws hitting just .247 with a .306 OBA. While his slugging
percentage was still higher, it wasn't enough to offset the difference
in the other stats.
Those two years can be huge. For example, there's a two year age
difference between Jerry Hairston and Brian Roberts. Before this
year, there was a question as to which guy the Orioles should
keep. Hairston was the slightly better defensive player, but
Roberts stayed healthy. There isn't any question that the O's got
it right (and I got it wrong) in keeping Roberts. But if the same
rules apply to this Byrnes/Bigbie trade, this time they may have gotten
it wrong.
The Yankees got Shawn Chacon in trade to help their ailing rotation and
they may have gotten exactly what they needed. Moving from
Colorado has to help even with coming to the AL East and facing
DHs. The Rockies were never committed on how to use him, so there
still may be plenty of potential for growth. He has very good
stuff and with a decent coaching and a bullpen that can hold leads, he
could be roto silver (not quite gold, but still pretty nice).
He's posted decent strikeout rates despite the high altitude and has
allowed only one homer this year outside Colorado. Run support
won't be an issue with the Yanks. So what is the downside?
He's always issued too many free passes so the WHIP will be continue to
be slightly uncomfortable, but he'll be a solid bet for wins and
strikeouts over the final two months.