If I were a GM
Just a couple things before I get the engines revved up. First,
I'm glad to be back, and in case you didn't know, it's hot in Houston
in July.
Second, the next 11 days will be all about the trade deadline, so I
will do my best to rate the rumors, anticipate the trades and analyze
the results. Here we go:
Randy Johnson
As of this writing, Randy Johnson appears to be the lynch
pin for a flood of trades that could happen this month. I don't
think it's going to happen though. Of course, as soon as I write
this, he'll be traded.
But:
1) I don't believe the Yankees have the prospects to trade for him,
2) I don't believe anyone who does have the decent prospects necessary
is going
to give them away so the Yankees can trade for him,
3) I believe the Red Sox are in the same situation as the Yankees,
4) I don't believe the Angels are eager to part with the prospects it
would take because next year those guys will inexpensively replace
expensive regulars in Anaheim,
5) I don't believe Johnson really wants to live in Texas, New York or
Boston for the next two years.
The team that should trade for him is the Cubs. It's probably a
crazy idea, but:
1) they have the prospects to get him
2) getting a power lefty between Zambrano and Wood would make a
devastating match-up in the playoffs
3) it would give them insurance for Prior in case his elbow situation
is serious
4) it would finally give the Cubs a starter that Dusty Baker couldn't
run into the ground or pitch until his arm falls off
5) they could trade free-agent-to-be Matt Clement for a premier
shortstop to boost their offense.
6) trading for Johnson would make them prohibitive favorites in the
playoffs along with Wood, Prior and Zambrano in the rotation and would
give them an incredibly good chance of winning the World Series, even
if they face the Yankees. It's not like Cub fans get to see their
team in the World Series very often. With Unit, they'd have a
very good chance of winning it. How much would that be worth to
the city of Chicago? The Cubs wouldn't have to scalp their own
tickets - with a World Series appearance, they could simply triple
their ticket prices and people would gladly pay it.
It won't happen because the Cubs have Orlando Cabrera targeted at short
and the Expos would never take Clement's contract or trade for a guy
they couldn't keep beyond this year. But I thought it might stir
the rumor goulash a little.
The Orioles
Speaking of rumors, I agree with Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun who
thinks that Matt
Riley will be headed to the NL soon, although I don't know
that it will be to the Dodgers (his pick). The O's have expressed
an
interest in the Mets' Karim Garcia and Riley might be used to get
him. I'm not sold on the pitching in the Mets farm system, and
their pitching coach, Rick Petersen is a wiz at making his pitchers
better, regardless of their issues. Riley could transform into a
very good starter and hanging out with fellow lefties like Al Leiter
and Tom Glavine can only help. Of course, as soon as I wrote
this, the Mets traded Karim Garcia to the O's for... Mike DeJean.
Go figure. Regardless, Riley would make a nice fit in Shea.
As for Garcia, does this mean the dominoes are about to start
falling in Baltimore, with Garcia taking over in right field and Jerry
Hairston
headed out of town?
Given that Hairston has been on display at a number of positions this
season in an effort to demonstrate his flexibility, it seems obvious
that he is the guy they are aiming to trade... big mistake. Yes,
he's had some injury problems the last couple of years but the injuries
have been more freakish than recurring in nature. If he was
always pulling his hamstrings or something like that it would be
different, but that is not the case. Hairston is superior
defensively and seems to have a more consistent plan at the plate for
getting on base than Brian Roberts. Another reason why Roberts is
the guy who should go is Mike Fontenot. If he finishes hitting in
AAA as well as he did last year in AA, then next year the O's will have
another second base controversy on their hands. By keeping
Hairston, they have a little more roster flexibility. The O's
should keep him, trade Roberts, even if it means getting less back in
the deal and move forward.
The trade they should make is with Oakland for Mark Redman. The
A's don't need a third lefty for the playoffs, especially one whose
post-season ERA is 6.88 and who didn't fool anyone in his 4 starts last
year. Trading Redman for Roberts gives the O's the veteran lefty
starter who can eat up innings and save their bullpen at a reasonable
price and it improves their infield defense. It gives the A's a
quality second baseman with above average ability and allows them to
move Joe Blanton into the rotation. My guess, though, is that
Hairston ends up in Oakland within the next week.
The Twins
With Mientkiewicz on the DL, we should get to see exactly how good of
an offense the Twins can field. Morneau and Stewart will get
regular at bats, which adds about 200 points collectively to the team's
OPS total. That may not be enough. The Twins will still
need to find better production from their middle infield and hope that
Corey Koskie can shake his injuries and get hot.
Cristian Guzman has hit well this month (.345 on base/.464 slugging)
and Luis Rivas had an excellent June (.364 on base/.569
slugging). Both players have shown this kind of production for a
month or two before, but have been unable to sustain it. Their
minor league record doesn't indicate they're capable of this level, but
both have been very young at every level they've played at, so there's
really no statistical record as to what to expect. Even though it
seems like they've been around forever, Guzman is just 26; Rivas only
24, so it's virutally certain they will get better. Further
complicating the issue is that both players appear to get lackadaisical
when not pushed for playing time, so the Twins may have to threaten to
use Michael Cuddyer at second and Nick Punto at short just to keep them
hungry. Properly motivated, these two can give the Twins the
offensive depth they need to win the division. But can they stay
motivated?
If not, the Twins are stuck in no-man's land: they can't trade away
such young players for more productive ones because of payroll
concerns, yet they have to find more offense to stay with the White
Sox, who appear determined to empty their farm system in order to win
the division this year.
Mientkiewicz' injury also means that about the only bargaining chip the
Twins have to upgrade any part of their team is Michael Restovich,
which won't bring much in return. They may be able to get Tony
Armas from the Expos, who need an inexpensive solution at third base
which Restovich could fill, but getting Kris Benson from the Pirates
appears out of reach.
The Padres
If I were GM of the Padres, I don't think I'd trade for Steve
Finley. First of all, I'd give switch-hitting Freddie Guzman a
shot in center. Currently in AAA Portland, he has an on base
percentage of .362, 30 steals in 32 attempts and covers vast amounts of
ground. The other reason I probably wouldn't trade for Finley is
that it would cost the Padres either Humberto Quintero or George
Kottaras, both excellent catching prospects. If I still felt I
had to make a trade, I'd go after a right-hander like Jacque Jones, who
is younger and would help balance the power in the line-up. Plus,
he's more of a line-drive hitter, which plays well at Petco for guys
who are content with boatloads of doubles and triples rather than home
runs.
The Royals
Kansas City still wants to be involved as a seller at the trade
dealdline, but what else do they have that anyone would want?
Brian Anderson? Juan Gonzales? Are there contenders that
need a lefty to give up homers or an outfielder to spend time on the
DL? Not that I'm aware of. About the only useful commodity
the Royals have to offer is Matt Stairs. As much as I like him,
he's not the kind of player that often brings impact talent in
return.
I think most contenders probably view him as bench depth rather than an
everyday position player. He doesn't hit lefties, so at best he's
a platoon player with limited defense. The Padres and Marlins are
about the only contenders who haven't hit right-handers well and
neither team has a position open for Stairs. Unless Allard
Baird's rumored price tag comes down significantly (one report has him
asking for the Padres' Xavier Nady in return), Stairs seems unlikely to
move.