Mid-July Merry-Go-Round
July 18, 2005
With two weeks left before the trade deadline, rumors are flying faster
than a golden snitch in a quiddich match. Many of the rumors are
centered in Baltimore and Washington. I have no doubt that the
Nationals will be very active, or at least do everything they can to
improve the team. GM Jim Bowden is playing with house money right
now because no one expected the team to be in first place at this point
in the season. Every day they remain in contention drives up the
asking price for the team a little more, so I'm sure he has the green
light from the commissioner's office to do just about anything he
wants. If the Nats are in first when they are sold, it'll be hard
for the new owners to justify dumping him given the circumstances, and
even if they fall out of first, he'll have done enough (in theory) to
secure himself another GM job if he isn't retained. So he will be
going all out to make deals. One humorous story I heard was that
the front office personnel in Cincinnati have been expressly forbidden
to accept his phone calls for fear that he'd pick the Reds clean.
Not sure how true it is, but it makes for an amusing side note.
Regardless, both teams are not only in a pennant chase, but are vying
for the fan
dollars of one of the wealthiest markets in sports. Both
organizations have
plenty to gain by focusing on this year's results, even if it end up
costing
their teams good talent for the long run. So it's probably
worthwhile to pay closer
attention to the stories of what's cooking in and around the Capital
Beltway.
Anyway, on to the rumors...
AJ Burnett, along with Mike Lowell, will supposedly be Orioles by the
end of the week. In exchange, the Orioles are reportedly sending
starter Hayden Penn, left fielder Larry Bigbie, and relievers Steve
Kline and Jorge Julio to Florida. I'm not sure how much sense
this trade makes to the Orioles in that a) it causes a logjam at third
base, b) it weakens the bullpen, although with the emergence of Chris
Ray and the return of Jason Grimsley it remains to see by how much, and
c) it forces the Os to either demote one of their current starters to
the pen, or trade them. The talk is that Lowell would split time
at DH, moving Jay Gibbons back to the outfield. As someone who
watched Gibbons man right field for the previous three years, the O's
might want to consider moving Mike Lowell out there instead.
Melvin Mora has become a decent third baseman but has shown he can play
a number of positions. But would he switch for Lowell? I
would think if the deal went down, the Os' would try to flip Lowell to
someone else as quickly as they could. Ray is still a rookie and
Grimsley is just coming back from TJ surgery, so it seems a bit
foolhardy to depend on a rookie and a gimp for the 7th and 8th innings
before Ryan in the heat of a pennant race. Who would step
up? Todd Williams? Tim Byrdak? I'm not convinced they
have an adequate answer. The final problem is that in getting
Burnett, they'd need to remove one of their guys from the
rotation. I'm sure the O's would love to dump Ponson from the
rotation and/or perhaps the team, but he has little if any trade
value. This year it hasn't been until after he's thrown 45
pitches that batters hit under .300 against him. That doesn't
bode well for relief work. Rodrigo Lopez was quite successful out
of the pen last year, but he's been their 3rd best starter all year and
2nd best while Bedard has been out.
Then there's the question as to how effective Burnett and Lowell would
be at Camden Yards. Eventually Lowell should rebound, but he'll
have to contend with the adjustment of facing a new league.
Burnett would have to make his adjustments in a division with two
powerhouse offenses and a ballpark that has been less forgiving against
left-handed power hitters than the other park he was rumored to be
heading to, Toronto. The deal makes much more sense on the
Florida side in that they get a solid young starter for their future, a
developing left fielder allowing them to move Cabrera back to third for
better overall team defense and two relievers to solidify their
bullpen, one of whom could close if the need arises.
Another rumor surrounding Burnett and Lowell has them involved in a
three-way deal with Boston and San Diego. Apparently, Bronson
Arroyo and a couple prospects would go to Florida, Sean Burroughs would
also head there while Burnett went to Boston and and Lowell to San
Diego. This makes some sense for Boston and San Diego, but not as
much for Florida, particularly on the Burroughs end. The whole
purpose behind trading Lowell is (along with freeing up some salary) to
move Miguel Cabrera back to his preferred position at third base.
Burroughs most certainly wouldn't be sent to Boston as they already
have an overflow of third basemen and are not likely to further block
Kevin Youkilis. So whither Burroughs? My guess is
that San Diego finds a taker for him this winter instead.
If I had to pick where Burnett goes, I'd guess Toronto because they
seem to have a better fit. But it's just as likely that he ends
up not going anywhere, but with Jack McKeon getting fired instead and
the Marlins hiring another
personality type to manage the team in hopes of catching fire like they
did in 2003. It's interesting that one of the names that has been
mentioned as a potential replacement for McKeon is Jeff Torborg.
This is the same Jeff Torborg that McKeon replaced after bumbling
through the first half of the season and sending AJ Burnett to the
operating table with his ridiculous handling of his pitching
staff. Grady Little has also been mentioned. The more
things change, the more they remain the same.
Another rumor floating around is that the Rangers are so fed up with
Kenny Rogers and are so worried about how much Alfonso Soriano will
cost that they would send both to the Nationals in exchange for Jose
Vidro, Tony Armas and a minor leaguer. It makes sense that the
Rangers would actively seek to move Rogers despite his success this
season because he is increasingly becoming more of a distraction than
he's worth. I can even see Soriano being moved for fear of how
much he could earn this winter. And getting back a productive
second baseman like Vidro also makes sense. And maybe Orel
Hershiser can turn around Tony Armas. But he won't be doing it in
Texas. First of all, Armas left Monday night's game in the third
inning due to dizziness and dehydration. DC can be hot and humid
in summer, but summer in Texas is oppressively so. That's just
not going to work. Secondly, Armas has become somewhat of a
flyball pitcher, which as Chan Ho Park ably proved in his first season
in Texas, isn't a good thing. The deal works great from the
Nationals side, but looks like a disaster waiting to happen for the
Rangers. Regardless, I would be surprised if Rogers is still
pitching for the Rangers after July 31st.
One deal that seems likely to be made is Shingo Takatsu to the
Diamondbacks for some spare parts. The D-backs have had some
success with Far Eastern closers and although Brandon Lyon is on the
mend, there's still some question about when he will return. The
rest of the bullpen is in disarray. As unlikely as it seemed at
the beginning of the year, Arizona is still in the hunt for the
playoffs despite a bullpen that has an ERA of 5.70. Takatsu would
take some of the burden off and even if he didn't close, would give
them another look late in the game. With Lyon's health in
question down the stretch, Takatsu would almost certainly get a handful
of save opportunities to boot. The White Sox look like a pretty
complete team right now, so bolstering their minor league system or
getting some bench depth seems appropriate.
One interesting trade that did go down was Jody Gerut getting sent to
the Cubs in exchange for Jason DuBois. Gerut should get ample
playing time in left and center, although it's unlikely the power he
showed in 2003 will ever return. If he finishes the season in
double digits in homers, consider him lucky. DuBois may not get
much playing time unless Cleveland also moves Casey Blake. They
like his power potential and if the Indians continue to fall out of
contention, they might opt to sit Blake regardless and let him develop
for next year.