Off We Go
July 15, 2005
The Nats are taking a beating in the media because their run
differential is that of a .500 team. Everyone is jumping on this
bandwagon that they have been extremely lucky and are due for a hard
fall. OK, that's all well and good, but when is someone going to
talk about how lucky the Braves have been? Seriously. Last
year they won the division going away because they got beyond-career
year production from the likes of Charles Thomas and Eli Marrero, and
benefited from the first year since little league that JD Drew didn't
spend half the season on the DL. This year they are getting it
done because Andruw Jones has been hitting everything in sight, but
also because Wilson Betemit is having the best year of his professional
career despite it being the first in which he's had more than 50 at
bats in the majors. Kelly Johnson is on pace to hit 25 homers
(given a full year's playing time) despite the fact that he totaled 23
homers over the last two years split between rookie ball and AA.
Is major league pitching that much easier to hit than what AA or rookie
ball has to offer? It's not that I think that Johnson or Betemit
don't have talent. They do and should become pretty good
ballplayers. The same can not be said of Charles Thomas and Eli
Marrero. But isn't it strange that they both emerge at the
precise time when the Braves need players at their positions?
Betemit has been around forever and was thought of by many as a failed
prospect, yet just when Furcal suffers his worst season in the majors,
that's when Betemit begins to realize his potential. The
Nationals have been lucky for half a
season... how is that any more likely than the Braves being lucky for
the last year and a half?
I'm not even going to get into the pitching side because of the whole
Mazzone-is-the-coaching-god thing. Suffice it to say that if he's
so great at keeping pitchers healthy, why have three of the Braves
starters spent time on the DL this year? Forget about all the
Tommy John and other reconstructive surgeries other Atlanta pitchers
have gone through - and there have been a decent number of them.
Why hasn't he been
able to develop more than one or two of the hoard of star quality young
pitchers the
Braves have brought through their farm system? Late last season I
pointed out on this website that
Jorge Sosa was a good
candidate for a
breakout. I said the same
thing about
Juan Cruz
and
Jaret Wright
the year before. Is it possible that the Braves scouts are
seeing the same traits I am, recommending that Schuerholz target these
guys for trade, and then watch them blossom as Braves? Is it
possible that
Leo Mazzone is little more than the beneficiary of excellent
scouting?
The Nats will slow down because Frank Robinson is wearing out his
bullpen in an effort to get as many wins as possible (perhaps under
orders from above in order to drive up the team's sale price?).
But the Braves have been just as fortunate to get the production they
have as well. Luck, as Branch Rickey once noted, is the residue
of design. In Bill Shanks new book on the Braves, he argues that
the Braves success is by design in the way they scout, sign and develop
players. Maybe both the Nats and Braves are winning, not
because of luck or one apotheosized pitching coach, but because they
are
well-designed.
How about some trade rumors and some deals that have already been
done... the newest one making the rounds is Toronto's Gustavo Chacin to
the Marlins for AJ Burnett. If it happens, Chacin will gain the
benefit
of a bigger park. Even though Burnett moves to the AL and a
smaller park, I don't think it would be a bad move for him. He's
become
much more groundball oriented (2.58 per flyball this year) than
he used to be, so the fact that AL batters aren't familiar with him
should be enough to offset the
ballpark effects to a large degree. The infield defense of the
Jays is nearly as good as that of the Marlins, so while he'll give up a
few more hits because of facing the DH, he shouldn't suddenly become
vastly more hittable. For some reason, lefties who
come to the NL do great their first time through. Improved
defense, bigger park and unfamiliarity should give Chacin's
numbers a big boost the rest of the way if the deal is made.
As noted in a previous article here, Preston Wilson's numbers might not
take that big of a
hit coming to RFK from Coors because he is a line drive hitter.
He probably got a few more base hits because of the expanse of the
Coors outfield, but I don't
believe he experienced a huge boost in power numbers because of
the altitude. He just doesn't put the ball way up in the air
enough for it to make a huge difference. His average will drop
20-30 points, but that might be about
the extent of the damage. Zach Day is still trying to gain
consistency so despite his extreme groundball tendency, he'll still
struggle in Denver. Long term, however, he's worth keeping an eye
on because if he ever gets his mechanics straight, he should fare well
despite the altitude because he keeps the ball on the ground so well.
Eric Byrnes likely won't stay long in
Colorado as he is much more expensive and has less upside than any of
the Rockies' current young outfielders. It would not surprise me
to see him in a Yankee uni before long.
The A's trading for
Payton didn't make much sense to me. They seem intent on giving
Swisher his opportunity, which means any outfield playing time Payton
gets will
come at the expense of Bobby Kielty. Unfortunately, neither guy
hits right-handers particularly well and Kielty is much better at
hitting lefties (.991 OPS this year, .912 career). My guess is
that Kielty moves to DH against lefties as Payton has more range
afield, and until Hatteberg and/or Durazo start hitting, Payton and
Kielty will see time against right-handers based on individual
histories of success.
With Betemit having such a breakout year, the Braves may entertain
trading Raphael Furcal. The question is which contending teams
need a shortstop with a potent bat. There are three clubs that
could use an offensive upgrade at short and one of them - the Nationals
- isn't likely to benefit from the Braves' largesse. The other
two - the White Sox and Twins - both have serviceable options and don't
appear to be panicking. The White Sox can bide their time with a
huge lead in the Central and hope that Juan Uribe finds his hitting
stroke. Until then, Pablo Ozuna is hitting enough to offset any
deficiencies in his defense. The Twins have Jason Bartlett
tearing up AAA whenever
they tire of the out-machine known as Juan Castro. So neither
team has any urgency that would compel them to give up the farm.
It's
interesting to note that it was just a few years ago that the Braves
and media alike were comparing Furcal to the likes of Ty Cobb because
of what he was accomplishing at his age (which has since been proven to
be several years older than originally reported), yet now they seem
perfectly comfortable
parting with him. Most teams, especially successful ones, don't
part with Hall of Fame talents so passively. So the question is
this: is Furcal as talented as once thought but carries much more
off-the-field baggage than is commonly known, or has his reputation
outstripped his ability? It might be both.
Chad Orvella might very well be ready to close in Tampa but it's
probably going to be newly signed Joe Borowski who gets the first shot
at the job once Danys Baez is traded. Borowski's velocity still
isn't very good coming off shoulder surgery last year and a broken
wrist this year. It shouldn't be surprising if he
struggles. However, he throws a lot of strikes and AL hitters
don't have much familiarity with him, so he might not fare too badly
initially. It's not as though the Devil Rays are contending so if
Borowski struggles and they don't feel that Orvella is quite ready to
take over closing full-time, they may opt to pick their spots with
him. What this means is that it's possible that both guys could
be terrible yet still get saves in the second half.