The Amateur Draft


Not too long ago, baseball's amateur draft was the private dominion of scouts and front offices.  But with an increasing number of players making an impact in the majors soon after being drafted - Mark Prior (drafted in 2001), Jesse Foppert (2001) and Mark Teixeira (2001) - fantasy baseball players are demanding an increasing amount of access to get the first looks at future stars.  

This year's draft has several players who could make their major league debuts very soon.  Canadian left-hander Adam Loewen might have been one of them had the Orioles not made one last ditch effort to get him signed before the deadline.  They guaranteed the #4 pick overall from last year's draft a spot on the major league roster within 3 years and $4 million over 5 years to keep him from being one of this year's picks.  But there are still a number of quality players that will be donning new caps this summer.  

There are plenty of lists available on the internet as to who will go where and when, so it's not very useful for me to try to outguess what each team will do.  What I will do, however, is do the same thing I would if I were running a team: list the players by what I perceive as their upside.  After following the draft for several years now and seeing how capricious the results can be, I'm not a believer in the idea that you draft what you need; my philosophy is to draft the best player available because you never know what is going to happen.  

The majority of the time, top picks take from 2 to 4 years to reach the majors and by that time, the make-up of your team is likely very different than when you drafted.  A small part of that is due to free agency.  The larger part is due to injuries and trading opportunities.  So it's best to take whoever the best available talent is at the time and work from strengths to address weaknesses rather than trying to project weaknesses 3 to 4 years down the road.  

So without further adieu, here are who I consider the top talents in the draft (statistics below):

Everyone raves about Delmon Young's power potential, but it's hard to go against a middle infielder who has hit nearly .500 against college competition in each of the last 2 years.  And even though that competition did not come from college baseball's power conferences, Ricky Weeks is still hitting against better than high school pitching.  He has power and speed and has something to prove to those who doubt that his career .469 average in college was legitimate.  Talent plus motivation usually makes for a good prospect.  Young is pick 1a and should follow his brother Dmitri's path to becoming a major league regular, albeit with more power.  He won't become a right-handed Ken Griffey Jr. because his defense isn't as good, but he does have All-Star talent.

Many prefer taking college pitchers over high schoolers, and in most cases I would agree with them.  But guys like Josh Beckett, Scott Kazmir and this year's entry, Jeff Allison are special.  Some scouts say that he's every bit as good as Beckett, so if whoever drafts him is careful with him, they could have a staff ace.  

Two college pitchers, Kyle Sleeth and Tim Stauffer are next.  Sleeth has better pure stuff and has a higher upside; Stauffer has terrific control and is closer to making an impact in the majors.  But at this point, neither look like legitimate aces; more like strong #2 or #3 guys.

Collegian Michael Aubrey edges out toolsy high schoolers Ryan Harvey, Chris Lubanski and Lastings Milledge because he has thrived against much better competition.  That's not to say that the young guys won't succeed.  But more often than not, they get by in high school crushing high school fastballs and don't know what to do when they see their first quality breaking pitch.  There are already some questions as to whether Milledge will handle upper level pitching for this very reason.  

Nick Markakis is a terrific two-way player, but his likely career will be on the mound rather than the field.  He's not overpowering, but he has three good pitches and for a lefty, that's usually a sure-fire ticket to the big leagues.  

Aaron Hill, Vince Sinisi, Carlos Quentin and Matt Murton are all solid college hitters and should make their way to the majors fairly soon, although none of them look like All-Star material.

Ian Stewart has scads of power and would warrant a top 5 pick if he could play defense.  Likewise, Eric Duncan looks like a very promising hitter who lacks defensive skills.  

I've included the stats of some other players who look promising, but because I don't know anything about them, will not add comment.


Player               Pos.      HS/College         AVG    AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB
Rickie Weeks          2b       Southern U.       .500   158  85  79  13   8  16   67  27
Delmon Young          of      Camarillo HS       .544    57  38  31   4   0   7   28   6
Michael Aubrey        1b        Tulane U.        .418   232  66  97  18   1  17   77  18
Ryan Harvey           of       Dunedin HS        .463    41  19  19   5   1   4   14   4
Chris Lubanski        of   Kennedy-Kenrick HS    .528    72  36  38   3  10   6   38  20
Lastings Milledge     of     Lakewood Ranch HS   .414    99  41  41   4   3  10   35  43
Vince Sinisi          1b         Rice U.         .360   236  53  85  15   1   7   51  11
Aaron Hill            ss           LSU           .371   229  60  85  24   5   8   56   9
Matt Murton           of      Georgia Tech       .307   238  62  73  10   3  13   55  19
Carlos Quentin        of       Stanford U.       .384   216  58  83  23   1   8   50  10
Ian Stewart           3b      La Quinta HS       .487    87  49  42  10   0  15   60   9
Eric Duncan           3b     Seton Hall Prep     .533    75  36  40   9   2   9   50  16
Matt Moses            3b     Mills Godwin HS     .488    43  20  21   5   0   3   14   4
Ryan Sweeney          of       Xavier HS                  No spring season
Conor Jackson       1b-3b   U. of California     .388   160  53  62  14   1  10   44   2
Brad Snyder           of      Ball State U.      .405   200  66  81  25   3  14   61  20
Brian Anderson        of     U. of Arizona       .375   224  58  84  12   8  14   61  17
Brandon Wood          ss       Horizon HS        .504   113  65  57  18   0  20   58  15
Tim Battle            of       McIntosh HS       .406    64  27  26   4   0   7   23  22
David Murphy          of        Baylor U.        .417   271  78 113  16   4  11   62   3
Mitch Maier            c        Toledo U.        .448   194  59  87  16   2   9   61  29
 
Player               Pos.     HS/College         W   L    ERA   G   SV   IP   H   BB   SO
Jeff Allison         rhp  Veterans Memorial HS   7   0   0.00   8    0   51   7    9  118
Kyle Sleeth          rhp    Wake Forest U.       7   3   2.81  14    0   96  78   29  102
Tim Stauffer         rhp    U. of Richmond       9   4   1.97  14    0  106  76   16  135
Nick Markakis        lhp    Young Harris JC     12   0   1.41  14    1   90  59   27  148
John Danks           lhp     Round Rock HS       8   1   1.36  14    2   72  35   22  135
Andrew Miller        lhp      Buchholz HS       10   3   1.79  13    0   70  17   63  136
Marc Cornell         rhp        Ohio U.          7   3   3.84  13    0   59  49   24   69
Paul Maholm          lhp  Mississippi State U.   8   2   2.67  14    1  101  95   37   95
Ryan Wagner          rhp     U. of Houston       4   5   2.07  33   13   70  34   17  130
Craig Whitaker       rhp       Lufkin HS         8   2   1.12  14    4   63  22   28  105
Brad Sullivan        rhp     U. of Houston       6   6   2.58  18    0  115  78   36  149
Jay Sborz            rhp      Langley HS         7   2   0.64  13    3   66  29   19  133