Mythical Pitching

May 27, 2014

Let me start by saying I’m willing to concede that my conclusions about George Springer might be wrong. From the evidence so far he’s a much better player than Chris Heisey. That doesn’t mean my observations about him were wrong. He still has huge holes in his swing which has led and will continue to lead to a lot of strikeouts: he is third in the majors behind Junior Lake and Mark Reynolds in strikeout rate at 32.7% of his at bats. He also tends to hit under the ball which leads to a lot of pop-ups: his rate is greater than that of BJ Upton. And even though he draws his share of walks, his strikeout/walk rate puts him in the same category as Josh Reddick and Marcel Ozuna as a hitter. But for whatever reason, it’s working for him. I can’t explain it. Just like I could not explain how Kirk Reuter got hitters out, nor how Jered Weaver continues to do so. I’ve heard all the explanations for their success but anytime those same parameters are applied to a general population, the explanation disintegrates. There are just some players who defy explanation and Springer appears to be one.

Speaking of defying explanation, and I hate to do this because no one wants to hear about someone else’s fantasy team, but I seem to have picked the perfect pitching staff for my XFL team. No, not perfect in a good way but perfect in a logic defying way. You see, my pitching staff is at or near the bottom in ERA and WHIP this season, which is a bit amazing since I have Stephen Strasburg, Yu Darivsh and Scott Kazmir on it. What’s not surprising is that they are second in strikeouts. But in all other aspects they have been terrible. The curious part is that according to metrics like FIP and xFIP and SIERA, they shouldn’t be. Drew Hutchinson, Brandon McCarthy, CC Sabathia, and Francisco Liriano have all been victimized by horrible luck. I have all of them. Dan Haren seems to one of the few guys I have who is doing as well as expected.

According to xFIP, I should have a team ERA from my starters around 3.24. According to SIERA it should be 3.25 and FIP indicates 3.38. My actual ERA from those guys is 3.82. Add in the strange year from Ernesto Frieri (SIERA of 2.02, xFIP of 2.80, actual ERA of 4.22), and I have the perfect cocktail for a frustrating spring. If either of the first two metrics were my actual ERA, the pitching staff would be in second place in ERA, just tenths of a point out of first. As it stands, however, they are the worst in the league in the category. So the question going forward is this: are these advanced metrics in any way predictive of what the next four months hold, or is this one of those years where reality and statistics don’t tell the same story, where what happens on the field just isn’t satisfactorily explained by the numbers? It’s still relatively early so sample size is still a mitigating factor and I have to believe that talent and previous performance will eventually reveal itself in this year’s performance. They have a little over four months to prove it.

Name Team K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 K% BB% K-BB% AVG WHIP BABIP LOB% ERA- FIP- xFIP- ERA FIP E-F xFIP SIERA

Jose Fernandez Marlins 12.19 2.26 5.38 0.70 34.2 % 6.3 % 27.8 % .188 0.95 .271 69.1 % 68 54 56 2.44 2.10 0.34 2.15 2.17

Masahiro Tanaka Yankees 10.06 1.27 7.90 0.89 28.5 % 3.6 % 24.9 % .223 0.98 .291 83.3 % 56 67 61 2.29 2.61 -0.32 2.30 2.38

David Price Rays 9.78 0.93 10.50 1.40 26.3 % 2.5 % 23.8 % .268 1.18 .332 68.2 % 117 90 70 4.42 3.28 1.14 2.64 2.61

Johnny Cueto Reds 9.54 2.09 4.56 0.81 28.4 % 6.2 % 22.2 % .145 0.74 .178 83.3 % 51 75 70 1.86 2.88 -1.02 2.66 2.63

Stephen Strasburg Nationals 10.67 2.37 4.50 0.66 27.9 % 6.2 % 21.7 % .261 1.29 .357 70.6 % 96 68 70 3.42 2.59 0.83 2.65 2.71

Zack Greinke Dodgers 10.03 2.16 4.64 1.08 27.4 % 5.9 % 21.5 % .234 1.13 .300 89.2 % 59 88 73 2.01 3.15 -1.14 2.77 2.76

Corey Kluber Indians 10.28 2.11 4.88 0.50 27.0 % 5.5 % 21.4 % .259 1.27 .350 74.4 % 81 62 72 3.10 2.22 0.88 2.70 2.78

Jon Lester Red Sox 10.21 2.42 4.22 0.67 27.8 % 6.6 % 21.3 % .239 1.18 .322 65.3 % 81 65 74 3.36 2.55 0.80 2.81 2.88

Max Scherzer Tigers 10.64 3.00 3.55 0.82 29.3 % 8.3 % 21.1 % .218 1.14 .296 84.3 % 64 75 80 2.59 2.91 -0.32 3.05 2.93

Yu Darvish Rangers 10.42 2.79 3.74 0.44 28.4 % 7.6 % 20.8 % .214 1.11 .297 82.1 % 56 60 84 2.35 2.39 -0.05 3.20 2.99

Madison Bumgarner Giants 10.28 2.33 4.41 0.82 26.3 % 6.0 % 20.4 % .263 1.32 .346 74.4 % 94 79 80 3.15 2.82 0.33 3.00 2.95

Ian Kennedy Padres 9.58 2.13 4.50 0.80 26.0 % 5.8 % 20.2 % .236 1.14 .304 73.7 % 105 80 78 3.59 2.87 0.72 2.93 2.94

Alex Wood Braves 9.35 1.90 4.91 1.04 25.1 % 5.1 % 20.0 % .271 1.27 .343 81.9 % 93 85 76 3.29 3.16 0.13 2.89 2.92

Adam Wainwright Cardinals 8.56 1.78 4.81 0.33 25.2 % 5.2 % 19.9 % .183 0.85 .239 83.6 % 48 61 77 1.67 2.26 -0.59 2.92 2.98

Felix Hernandez Mariners 8.84 1.67 5.29 0.36 24.3 % 4.6 % 19.7 % .229 1.06 .299 67.3 % 69 61 71 2.75 2.28 0.47 2.69 2.76

Michael Wacha Cardinals 9.85 2.54 3.88 0.60 26.4 % 6.8 % 19.6 % .227 1.14 .302 80.1 % 73 75 81 2.54 2.77 -0.23 3.05 3.03

Aaron Harang Braves 9.65 2.72 3.56 0.30 25.9 % 7.3 % 18.6 % .241 1.22 .327 68.8 % 94 61 86 3.32 2.29 1.03 3.23 3.19

Phil Hughes Twins 7.79 0.99 7.83 0.66 20.9 % 2.7 % 18.2 % .271 1.20 .329 76.2 % 79 71 93 3.15 2.66 0.49 3.55 3.43

Dallas Keuchel Astros 7.77 1.53 5.08 0.51 22.4 % 4.4 % 18.0 % .221 0.98 .275 76.5 % 64 71 69 2.55 2.65 -0.10 2.60 2.42

Cliff Lee Phillies 8.07 1.19 6.78 0.66 21.1 % 3.1 % 18.0 % .279 1.28 .341 70.0 % 88 68 76 3.18 2.61 0.57 2.85 3.05

Yordano Ventura Royals 9.22 2.63 3.50 0.99 24.9 % 7.1 % 17.8 % .221 1.13 .274 82.4 % 69 86 80 2.80 3.36 -0.56 3.05 3.07

Jesse Chavez Athletics 8.85 2.32 3.81 1.16 23.9 % 6.3 % 17.7 % .227 1.13 .272 80.3 % 67 96 81 2.61 3.58 -0.97 3.10 3.16

Marco Estrada Brewers 8.41 2.36 3.56 2.36 23.4 % 6.6 % 16.8 % .233 1.13 .240 88.2 % 110 145 100 3.98 5.42 -1.44 3.74 3.46

Drew Hutchison Blue Jays 8.85 2.70 3.28 0.75 23.9 % 7.3 % 16.6 % .232 1.18 .293 75.4 % 85 80 93 3.88 3.11 0.34 3.55 3.44

Brandon McCarthy Diamondbacks 8.03 1.75 4.58 1.31 21.2 % 4.6 % 16.5 % .263 1.25 .306 64.2 % 125 98 76 4.87 3.79 0.88 2.87 2.97

CC Sabathia Yankees 9.39 1.96 4.80 1.96 23.0 % 4.8 % 18.2 % .297 1.48 .350 70.7 % 129 118 81 5.28 4.70 0.58 3.09 3.05

Dan Haren Dodgers 6.89 1.58 4.36 0.86 18.1 % 4.2 % 14.0 % .265 1.24 .307 65.2 % 92 93 89 3.16 3.33 -0.17 3.33 3.52

Scott Kazmir Athletics 6.79 1.96 3.46 0.45 19.0 % 5.5 % 13.5 % .214 1.01 .256 76.9 % 66 83 96 2.56 3.05 -0.48 3.68 3.58

Francisco Liriano Pirates 8.90 4.30 2.07 1.07 22.1 % 10.7 % 11.4 % .256 1.50 .314 68.2 % 146 114 96 5.06 4.10 0.96 3.57 3.77