Into the First Turn... (05/23/00)
OK, so I was wrong about Fusaichi Pegasus. One commentator made an interesting point about the horse: his name was too complicated to be a Triple Crown winner. I'll buy that. But he is still a very good horse and I do think he'll win the Belmont.
Anyway, like a horse race, the baseball season is just passing the first turn (one quarter of the way through) and headed for the backstretch of summer. So, who's in a good position? One way to look at it is to use Bill James Pythagorean formula, which is the ratio of runs scored squared to the number of runs allowed squared. This results in a team's probable winning percentage. Another, perhaps more accurate way is to use runs created instead of just runs, because runs created is a more accurate account of a team's ability to score runs. Runs created is a significantly more involved formula that accounts for most offensive events (stolen bases, sac flies, etc.) not just the runs scored. Anyway, here's how the teams break down at the quarter mark, and a few comments.
R=runs, OR=Opponent runs, RC=runs created, ORC=opponent runs created, WP=wins projected, LP=Losses projected
AL East
Team R OR RC ORC W L WP LP Diff
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Bos 216 131 209 144 24-13 25-12 -1
NYY 175 164 176 159 23-14 20-17 +3
Tor 229 258 246 256 22-20 20-22 +2
Bal 214 249 206 258 17-23 16-24 +1
TB 189 244 186 243 13-26 15-24 -2It's hard to believe but the Red Sox have actually underachieved to this point and the Yankees have significantly overachieved. All the wailing and gnashing of teeth about a Yankee dynasty may be just noise. Duquette appears to have built a contender and Joe Kerrigan is made his LIMA plan work.* Fassero and Schourek have been solid and the BoSox offense is at or near the top, even without Nomar. The Blue Jays are still in the hunt and if they can get their young pitching straightened out, the Yanks might have trouble even making the playoffs. The key to watch in this race, especially concerning the Yanks: the Yanks are near the bottom in drawing walks so far this season. Walks have been a huge part of their offense during their successful run for the last several years. If they don't pick up their pace, they're done. The O's and Devil Rays are woeful as predicted. Food for thought: how good will the Red Sox be next year if Jeff Bagwell tells the Astros to stuff their contract extension this offseason?
* The LIMA plan is a fantasy baseball strategy whereby the owner spends very little money on pitchers, preferring mostly cheap, crappy pitchers and hope they have good years. The idea being that because pitching is so difficult to predict, why spend a lot of money on it.
AL Central
Team R OR RC ORC W L WP LP Diff
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Cle 226 179 232 186 21-16 22-15 -1
CWS 237 201 227 199 22-17 22-17 0
KC 217 246 220 239 21-19 18-22 +3
Min 204 243 195 247 18-24 16-26 +2
Det 141 223 159 207 12-25 14-23 -2Cleveland is going to have to wait until July or August to claim their crown this year, rather than their customary June coronation. Even with most of their top players slumping and several of their starters hurting, they're are still the class of the division. The White Sox are definitely improved, but they are still not ready to contest the division over a full season. The Royals and Twins aren't yet equal to the South Siders, but have shown improvement as well. GM Randy Smith probably won't be around too much longer in Detroit.
AL West
Team R OR RC ORC W L WP LP Diff
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Sea 241 181 228 184 21-17 23-15 -2
Tex 258 248 257 246 21-20 21-20 0
Oak 264 234 238 225 21-21 22-20 -1
Ana 221 231 244 232 20-21 21-20 -1The Mariners have done just fine without Griffey and their two best starters. Freddie Garcia will be back in mid June and Jamie Moyer will be back even sooner. The surprise of the division is Anaheim, which has gotten better pitching than expected. Oakland's porous defense is keeping the opposition in too many games. Catcher Pudge Rodriquez is single handedly carrying the Rangers.
NL East
Team R OR RC ORC W L WP LP Diff
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Atl 199 152 210 154 28-12 26-14 +2
Mon 216 210 201 197 21-17 19-19 +2
Fla 191 192 181 196 22-20 19-23 +3
NYM 197 217 216 215 21-20 21-20 0
Phi 158 198 167 196 14-25 17-22 -3The Braves are on cruise control, even without John Smoltz. They've had a few nagging injuries but the guys they were most concerned about (Galarraga, Lopez and Chipper Jones) have come through with flying colors. Still, there's a long way to go. Pre-season media favorites New York and Philly look pretty ordinary to this point, although Philly has been beset with a lot of injuries. Montreal has performed about where I thought they would and should be a serious contender for the wild card. The Marlins have matured faster than expected and could make this a four way race for second.
NL Central
Team R OR RC ORC W L WP LP Diff
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Cin 206 218 217 220 23-17 20-20 +3
StL 258 211 274 204 23-17 25-15 -2
Pit 188 199 197 203 18-21 19-20 -1
Hou 221 221 204 232 15-23 17-21 -2
Mil 176 217 168 235 15-24 13-26 +2
ChC 239 287 244 266 15-27 19-23 -4Who could have predicted the Astros demise? This is easily the biggest surprise of the season. It won't be easy but they can still catch the leaders, as they have the talent. But can they put aside the sniping? Cincinnati is like an stock engine that's been running at 6000 rpm for over a year now: even with the best lubricants, it's gonna lock up eventually. With their pitching, they just aren't made for this kind of performance. St. Louis has had a soft schedule so far and their pitching, especially the bullpen, remains a question. Pittsburgh and Milwaukee have performed to expectation. The good news for the Cubs is that they've underachieved. The bad news is that's not exactly news.
NL West
Team R OR RC ORC W L WP LP Diff
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Arz 221 168 220 168 27-13 25-15 +2
LA 231 194 221 193 21-17 21-17 0
Col 241 244 223 249 19-19 17-21 +2
SF 224 223 213 225 18-20 18-20 0
SD 193 208 190 193 16-24 20-20 -4The D-backs soft schedule has mitigated the loss of Matt Williams to this point. The Dodgers have been better than I thought they'd be and it's no mirage. Maybe they're finally living up to all that potential so many have been talking about for years. Dusty Baker's habit of abusive workloads on his starters is starting to take it's toll. Unfortunately for the Giants, they've almost exhausted their supply of good arms. The Rockies look like they are headed for another innocuous season. The Pads have suffered through the toughest schedule in the majors so far, playing over half their games on the road, against last year's playoff teams, without Tony Gwynn and with 6 pitchers on the DL. And according to this, they've underachieved. Wow. Part of the problem has been the bullpen, which has been decimated by injury and over exposed due to some shaky starting pitching. However, pitching is gonna get a lot healthier very quickly as Woody Williams and Carlton Loewer return within the next month. It's hard to believe looking at their record now, but these guys might contend for the division.