The 5th Annual "Help is on the Way" column
May 21, 2005
Every May I write about players - predominantly pitchers - who are
having fine seasons in the high minors that if given the chance can
help their big league clubs and as a byproduct, help fantasy teams in
need. Most of them don't make an impact due to lack of
opportunity. But many, like Glendon Rusch, Tanyon Sturtze, David
Bush, Ricardo Rodriguez (before he was hurt), Zach Greinke, Joe Blanton
and Bobby Madritsch last year do contribute a significant number of
quality innings to be worth rostering. There have already been
some guys make their first appearances in the majors who will very
likely grow into larger roles as the year progresses. They
include Jon Rauch (WAS), Tim Stauffer (SD), Seth Etherton (OAK), DJ
Carrasco (KC), Julio Santana (MIL) and Jorge Campillo (SEA). Even
though Stauffer is the only one of those assured of a starter's role,
each could provide a significant number of quality innings.
Without any further fanfare or horn-blowing, here are this year's guys:
NAME
TEAM W L
ERA G SV
IP H R
ER BB SO SO/9
*Tallet,
Brian CLE 3
0 2.68 8 0
40.1 32 12 12
13 31 6.9
McCarthy,
Brandon CHW 3 4
4.72 8 0
47.2 47 26
25 14 61 11.5
*Duke,
Zach PIT
7 2 3.32
9 0 57.0 59
22 21 10
37 5.8
Snell,
Ian
PIT 6 0 3.48
8 0 51.2 36
20 20 10 52
9.1
*Keisler,
Randy CIN 3
1 2.59 8 1
41.2 38 13
12 9 38 8.2
Baker,
Scott MIN
1 0 1.74
6 0 31.0 29
6 6 9
23 6.7
Bonser,
Boof MIN
3 1 3.48
8 0 44.0 41
22 17 12
42 8.6
Gaudin,
Chad TOR
2 1 2.35
8 0 53.2 40
17 14 11
37 6.2
Rosario, Francisco
TOR 2 3 3.02
8 0 44.2 32
17 15 19
38 7.7
Douglass,
Sean DET 5
1 3.07 8 0
44.0 35 15
15 13 45 9.2
Miadich,
Bart
FLA 2 1
2.84 18 5 19.0
15 7 6
11 34 16.1
Medders,
Brandon ARZ 1
1 3.06 17 4
17.2 15 6
6 6 23 11.7
Cain,
Matt
SF 3 2 3.50
8 0 46.1 28
20 18 26
52 10.1
Gissell,
Chris STL 3
3 2.82 8 0
51.0 39 20
16 15 50 8.8
Reyes,
Anthony STL
5 1 2.44
8 0 55.1 35
16 15 9
48 7.8
Wainwright,
Adam STL 4
1 1.82 8 0
54.1 49 12
11 6 45 7.5
*Riley,
Matt TEX
0 0 0.00
1 0 3.0
1 0 0
1 5 15.0
Rodriguez, Ricardo
TEX 4 3 3.48
8 0 54.1 46
26 21 16
35 5.8
Hernandez,
Felix SEA 5
3 3.05 8 0
44.1 35 16
15 21 42 8.5
Cleveland's Jake Westbrook and Scott Elarton have both struggled this
season. Westbrook was extremely lucky with his performance last
year, but this kind of karmic equalizing is a little extreme and the
truth is he's pitched considerably better than his results this
season. Elarton is still a work in progress but shows signs of
breaking through. However, if either one can't get on track,
there is an alternative in AAA. Brian Tallett understands about
pitching under the kind of scrutiny he'll face in the majors having
pitched the championship game for LSU in the 2000 College World
Series. He's not overpowering but does a pretty decent job of
keeping the ball inside the park. He missed a large portion of
last year recovering from Tommy John surgery, but showed his velocity
was all the way back in the AAA playoffs.
Brandon McCarthy made an impression on a lot of people with his
performance in spring training this year. With Orlando Hernandez
spotty history of staying healthy, it was only a matter of time before
he got his chance to start. That chance will come this
weekend. He pitches off a 90 mph fastball and has great
confidence in his other pitches. So far he's posted superb
numbers in AAA with one exception: his home run rate which is on the
high side. That's a bit of a surprise given that his previous
record shows no such flaw. And it's not exactly a deal breaker as
there are a number of pitchers who have been successful despite
surrendering a high rate of homers: Brad Radke, Bartolo Colon and Jamie
Moyer to name a few.
Pittsburgh has a pair of solid hurlers in Zach Duke and Ian
Snell. Both have above average velocity and command, but
unfortunately the Pirates problems aren't so much with the rotation -
Oliver Perez notwithstanding - but with the offense. Still,
Perez' struggles may create an opportunity and the Pirates won't figure
in the playoff hunt unless they can start scoring more runs so they
could trade a highly marketable lefty like Mark Redman to open up a
spot.
I included Randy Keisler on this list despite the fact that I think
he's another in a long list of highly over-rated (former) Yankee
prospects. Still, his numbers in AAA merit a chance to prove me
wrong in Cincinnati, especially given the horror show that's been
playing on the mound all season at Great America Ballpark. While
Keisler won't be the savior the staff needs, he should be able to stem
much of the run hemorrhaging from Paul Wilson, Eric Milton and Ramon
Ortiz. Unfortunately, none of those guys are likely to lose their
spot in the rotation as they are getting paid too much to pitch out of
the pen. But it's not like Brandon Claussen (another ex-Yankee
prospect) has been that great either so at least there will be some
sense of uniformity when Keisler gets his shot.
Coming into this season, the Twins rotation looked a lot like Santana,
Radke, then pray for structural damage to the dome. But Carlos
Silva is showing that last year was just the beginning of a solid
career and Joe Mays has pitched increasingly well in his return from
missing a season due to surgery. So the question then becomes can
Kyle Lohse hold on to his spot? Gardenhire is notoriously loyal
to his veterans so Lohse will be given every chance to prove he can't
pitch in the rotation, even if it means his ERA remains bloated.
This was proven two years ago when Mays was pitching injured with an
ERA over 7 while Johan Santana was languishing in the bullpen.
This may be a case of history repeating itself because both Scott Baker
and Boof Bonser are pitching very well in AAA, yet the only chance
they'll get at a rotation spot this year is if someone goes down with
an injury. Baker passed last year's Twins hot pitching prospect
JD Durbin on the depth chart with a terrific spring, and Bonser, who
came to the team along with Joe Nathan last year in exchange for AJ
Pierzinski, appears to have passed him as well. Baker will get
the first shot as Bonser still has some work to do keeping the ball in
the park. Both have outstanding futures in the Twin cities if
Gardenhire ever softens his prejudice against young players.
Ted Lilly's last start was a positive sign that he's turning his poor
start around so the Blue Jay rotation appears to be set for now.
However, the league is starting to catch on to Gustavo Chacin and the
thin line that Josh Towers is treading - few baserunners despite poor
velocity and a high home run rate - likely won't last the full
season. In their places would step Chad Gaudin and/or Francisco
Rosario. Like Towers, Gaudin has excellent control but he can
occasionally simulate that he's pitching 90 mph. He has a good
slider and as long as his change-up is working, he can be
effective. Rosario, on the other hand, has the stuff to be
dominating. His biggest obstacle has been repeating solid
mechanics. Once he gets that, his star should rise very
quickly. Currently he's discovering that even AAA hitters can
turn on a mid-90s fastball but that shouldn't stop him from making an
appearance in Toronto this year.
Like Gaudin, Sean Douglass isn't a hard-thrower by any stretch.
But he knows how to pitch and only Jeremy Bonderman and Jason Johnson
seem to have their spots in the Tiger rotation assured. Wil
Ledezma, Nate Robertson and Mike Maroth have each pitched better
recently so the likelihood of a change in the rotation isn't very high
at this point. But the threat of injury is ever-present and
Douglass would be the most competent beneficiary.
I don't normally include relievers in this list primarily because minor
league closers rarely become major league closers upon promotion.
However, two guys to keep an eye on are Bart Miadich (FLA) and Brandon
Medders (ARZ), both of whom could get a chance to save games this
year. Miadich's ridiculously high strikeout rate this season is
well over his career average, although even that was better than a
batter per inning. His problem has always been walks but in being
able to strike out nearly two batters per inning, it doesn't pose as
much of a problem. The Marlins are the fifth organization that's
taken a chance on his power arm, which may pay off if Guillermo Mota
doesn't come back strong. Leaving the closing duties to Todd
Jones or Antonio Alfonseca is no less risky than giving Miadich a
shot.
For now, it appears that Brian Bruney will be the closer in
Arizona. And he has the skill set to keep the job even when
Brandon Lyon returns. Still, having the skills to do the job and
the mental temperament to handle being the goat occasionally can be two
different things. So if the D-backs find themselves looking for a
closer again this year, Medders might be considered. Although he
wasn't listed among the top 30 prospects in the D-backs system by
Baseball America, that may be due as much to the presence of studs like
Carlos Quentin and Conor Jackson as a lack of exceptional numbers from
Medders. His career 10 Ks per 9 innings would have stood out much
more had it not been for a moderately high walk rate (3.29) and a high
ERA (4.26) for a reliever.
Matt Cain is the next great San Francisco pitching prospect, although
frankly, I'm still waiting on the first. Russ Ortiz, Shawn Estes,
Jason Grilli, Kurt Ainsworth (am I boring you yet?), Sean McGowan, Ryan
Vogelsong, Jesse Foppert, Jerome Williams, Ryan Hannaman (are there any
GMs out there who are paying attention?), Noah Lowry, Brad Hennesey...
if you'd like to tell Giant's GM Brian Sabean what a genius he is,
please send all correspondence to:
Peter Gammons
ESPN
Bristol, Connecticut
because the publicity he gets on Baseball Tonight from Gammons'
frequent soliloquies on drafting power arms to trade and Sabean's
superior ability to do so have made him what he is today. I
didn't include Scott Linebrink or Joe Nathan because they aren't
starting pitchers anymore. So if you want to call the Giants "the
breeding ground for great relievers", feel free. In the meantime,
Cain is the best they have on the farm and appears to be the best of
the bunch, although how much that is saying remains to be seen.
What is important is the Giants aren't going to be competitive this
year so there's really no good reason why Jeff Fassero should stay in
the rotation. Matt Cain will get his chance this year.
My friend Brian Walton would kill me - ok, he doesn't have the
temperament for murder, but he'd send me a nasty email threatening to
use four letter words - if I didn't include three pretty solid starting
prospects working at the Cardinals' AAA club in Memphis. Adam
Wainwright gained some notoriety last year when the Braves traded him
to the Cardinals in exchange for JD Drew's one good season.
Anthony Reyes has gotten a decent amount of pub from the minor league
set for some very solid years pitching at USC and for a remarkable
season last year in AA when he struck out 102 batters in 74.1
innings. But the guy whose record most impresses me is Chris
Gissell, who somehow managed to go 14-2 with a 3.67 ERA and only give
up 11 homers last year in 90.2 innings at AAA Colorado Springs.
Here's a guy who figured out how to pitch at altitude. Two
questions one must ask in light of that realization: 1) how much easier
do the Cubs, Pirates or Astros hitters look at sea level when you've
pitched in a place where bunt pops go over the wall, and 2) what were
the Rockies smoking when they decided to let this guy go? Truth
be told, Gissell is by far the oldest of the three - he's 27,
Wainwright is 23 as is Reyes - so he has the least upside long
term. And despite their recent injury history, the guys in the
Cardinals starting rotation are reasonably sturdy so the chance that
any of these three getting an extended chance to start games isn't very
good. But they aren't bad alternatives is something were to
happen.
The Rangers are currently hanging close to the Angels in the AL West
despite having a rotation that includes Kenny Rogers, Pedro Astacio,
Chan Ho Park and Ryan Drese. OK, even when writing that I have to
pause in awesome wonder. If I remember correctly, the reason the
Rangers traded ARod to the Yankees was free up enough money so they
could bolster their starting pitching corps. And this is what
they came up with. This tells me two things: 1) Buck Showalter is
either the Satan's pawnbroker for souls because just one isn't a
sufficient enough price for this miracle, or he's a complete genius
when it comes to handling pitchers (or both), and 2) the Rangers front
office is comprised of 20 monkeys locked in a room banging away on 20
typewriters and any time they come up with a legible name, owner Tom
Hicks gives that guy a contract.
That said, there should be some opportunity for some minor league
pitchers to get a chance this season in Arlington. At the top of
the list is Ricardo Rodriguez, who debuted with the team last year
before suffering a broken elbow on a freak play in June. Back and
healthy, he's had several outstanding outings in AAA Oklahoma and was
rumored to be promoted if Astacio had one more bad outing.
Astacio righted his ship for the time being, but with the cast of
characters currently taking the mound Rodriguez' return is a matter of
when, not if. Juan Dominguez is another promising young arm who
should get a chance but currently finds himself in AA due to
disciplinary issues. One other intriguing possibility is Matt
Riley. The O's gave up on him finally after years of frustration;
even Ray Miller could not get him to begin to realize his
potential. He failed in the bullpen in Texas earlier this year,
but is pitching well back in AAA. The talent has always been
there to become a very good starter; it's only been a matter of
drive.
And finally, the pitcher everyone has been waiting to see, Felix
Hernandez. The Mariners have been content to let him stay in AAA
Tacoma this season and since there's no way one prospect could fill all
the holes the Mariners have in their rotation no matter how good he is,
it's not a bad plan. He'll have plenty of years dominating major
league hitters; one half season isn't going to make that big of a
difference. Besides, there have been occasions this season where
the opposing batters did actually string together enough hits to score
runs. Not many mind you, but it was enough that everyone could
chalk it up as a learning experience. Hernandez will likely get a
chance to show his stuff in Seattle this September.