I Could Be Wrong
April 26, 2005
In the course of writing about what may or may not happen, there are
occasions where I am, quite simply, wrong. Sometimes I come to
the wrong
conclusion based on the data and sometimes I have the right idea but
the circumstances
change. For example, on Sunday I wrote that Chad Fox will likely
be the Cubs' closer. And based on the way he was used Sunday and
Monday, that seemed like it was going to be the case. However,
Fox was injured on Monday - something that happens with great frequency
with him - and the talk is that not only won't he be the closer, but
his career could be over. The circumstances changed, but I was
probably wrong to name Fox as the guy who would succeed and for two
reasons. The first is that Fox' injury history was such that the
likelihood of
him making it through a whole season with his arm and shoulder in tact
were pretty remote. The second was that Mike Wuertz, who will now
likely get a shot at closing, was a pretty solid closer in AAA and is
old enough (25) for Dusty Baker to take him seriously. Granted,
Baker is notoriously myopic when it comes to choosing between talent
and age - this year's example was his choice of Neifi Perez over Jerry
Hairston to assume everyday duty at second base when Todd Walker went
down - so it's no given that Baker will give Wuertz a shot even if he
retires every batter he faces for the next month. But at this
point, he
looks like the logical choice.
I don't think I was wrong about Michael Cuddyer (or Matt Clement for
that matter) this year, but I may
have inadvertently given both of them "the Tout Wars Hex". For
the last few
years I thought I had cursed Red Sox first basemen by acquiring them
for my AL
Tout Wars team. Tony Clark's abysmal showing in 2002, Jeremy
Giambi's
flop in 2003 and Kevin Millar's first half non-production (and
offensive explosion the week I traded him) last year seemed to present
enough
evidence to give the notion some credibility. But maybe
there's another curse at work here: the curse of the $18 bid.
In 2002, I got Clark and Cristian Guzman for $18, Scott Spiezio and
Millar went for $18 last year, and this year Cuddyer and Clement found
their way onto my squad at the same salary.
It's true that I had Johan Santana for $18 in 2003 and it didn't seem
to affect his performance. But remember that Ron Gardenhire
refused to
put him in the rotation that year until July, so his production that
year was half of what it should have been had the Twins manager not
been vexed by my fantasy curse. I also had Ugueth Urbina for $18
that year. Yeah, he had a pretty decent year... until he got
traded to Florida. Then for two months he set up Braden
Looper. No saves until the final week of the season despite
superior numbers to Looper. In the playoffs, however, Jack McKeon
arrived at the same obvious conclusion everyone else on earth had come
to - that Urbina should close instead of Looper - and installed Urbina
as the closer. Too late for my benefit of course. It was a
move that allowed the Marlins to run
the tables and win the World Series. Six regular season saves in
Florida and 4 post season saves; I lost out on tying for the
Tout championship that year by 9 saves. In 2002, along with
Clark, I
had Cristian Guzman for $18. This was the year after he he hit .302 with 10
homers... so I got him the year he started stinking. He hasn't
been
the same since. So if in the afterlife we find
out that my bidding ruined the careers of Tony Clark, Cristian Guzman,
Scott Spiezio and
Michael Cuddyer, I sincerely apologize. I was only trying to show
my love. But as we all know too much love can be a dangerous
thing. At least I saved Millar's career by trading him.
Speaking of Tout, it's still very early, but the current leader (Ron
Shandler) has a pretty nice lead and has put together a
solid squad which if I may be so bold, doesn't look like a typical Ron
Squad. For example, he's got Rondell White and Corey
Koskie. Both guys are notoriously injury-prone, something Ron has
for years steered clear of because of the risk involved. Another
uncharacteristic choice was Richard Hidalgo, who's inconsistency must
be maddening for a guy who loves steady "boring" players. But the
Baseball HQ team has an everyday player at every hitting position and a
solid enough pitching staff to stay competitive in the pitching
categories. In fact, save the absence of Johan Santana, his squad
looks a lot like mine did last year, including having Kevin Millar,
Orlando Cabrera, Johnny Damon, Craig Monroe, David Bush, Travis Harper,
George
Sherrill and John Maine... hey! Give me back my team, dude!
About the only chink in his armor is that he doesn't
have any hitting reserves so if one of his players gets injured for
an extended period, he'll have to get someone from the wire.
That's
not such a big deal since that's exactly how I won last
year. But this year's AL crop of reserves doesn't appear to be as
potent as previous years, so it may be a more difficult strategy to win
with. Of course, I'm currently scrounging about that waiver heap
trying to find another outfielder
to keep pace with the offensive juggernaut that is Brian Roberts (his
admitted reason for his lead) until Frank Thomas
returns. More specifically, I'm
hoping that Chuck Lamarr decides sometime in the next week that the
D-Rays can't win this season and calls up Delmon Young. In lieu
of that, I'll have to hope there's a 2005 version of Gary Matthews
lurking somewhere in the minors... Luke Allen, anyone?