Nats Notes
April 13, 2006


Here're some notes from the past couple of days.

Unlike last year at this time, the ball is carrying particularly well at RFK.  It wasn't until August of last year that the ball started to take off.  Before then, balls that traveled above the luxury box level just died in the outfield.  From August on, however, they traveled quite well.  This year is picking up where last year left off.  It's true that the Mets have a bunch of boppers in their line-up but the two balls that left on Opening Day were bombs that hit off the upper deck lower facade and Jose Vidro hit two that went to the warning track in deepest center field that day.  To give you an idea of how much of a change this is, no opposing team broke double digits in runs or hit two home runs in a single game at RFK last year until Houston did it on July 22.  The Mets did it this year in the third game.  What does this mean for fantasy owners?  It means that those of us who thought our pitchers would find refuge in RFK's spacious dimensions are in for a rough ride this season.  John Patterson and Chad Cordero might be the only two pitchers who have above average value.

I thought Ramon Ortiz would be this year's Esteban Loaiza but he needs to develop confidence in a breaking pitch.  He can give three innings using just his fastball and change, but will need a better slider or curve if he hopes to make it as a starter.  Through the first three innings on Tuesday he had given up just two singles (one of which was on a bloop) using mostly his fastball and change.  The second time through the Mets they got to him for six hits including two doubles, resulting in all four runs he surrendered. 

Alfonso Soriano will top 30 homers.  He hit the upper facade with his homer on Tuesday.  I'm amazed how much power his skinny frame generates, but when he hits a homer it's rarely a cheapy.  And for everyone who said that RFK would kill his power numbers, I guess they forgot that he actually had more homers on the road in 2004 than he did at home, and that he hit nearly 40 homers a season in 2002 and 2003 in Yankee Stadium, one of the tougher parks around for right-handed power hitters. With the Nats he'll be given the green light to steal bases, so with the ball carrying much better this year, he has a decent chance for 40/40 this year.  He certainly has incentive to put up that kind of year for the kind of contract he's hoping for.

Don't get overly excited about Brian Bannister.  Yes, he turned in a great start against the Nats, but so did Luke Hudson and Wes Obermuller last year and no one is predicting Cy Young awards from those guys.  For whatever reason, this team struggles against unknown starters, especially junk ballers.  Bannister is a nice pitcher, but he worked mostly in the high 80s and he was getting a lot of calls his way.   In fact, the Nats swung and missed just twice in the seven innings he was in. 

Kris Benson has developed confidence in the change-up he modified under Tom Glavine's suggestion and is now establishing his fastball for strikes on the outside.  His upside is Kevin Millwood in a good year.

Victor Martinez is the new Javy Lopez, and I don't mean in a good way.  He just doesn't seem to be paying attention behind the plate.  For example, against Seattle on Thursday, Fernando Cabrera came into the game with the Indians behind by two.  Cabrera has been struggling with his control, probably due to lazy mechanics and weight transfer although that's a different story.  Anyway, Cabrera is again having trouble throwing strikes, but everything is low.  He's over the plate, just a few inches low.  Carl Everett is at the plate and is late on every fastball.  All Cabrera needs to do is throw fastballs a little above the belt and Everett will be taking a seat.  So where does Martinez set up on each and every pitch?  His target on every single pitch is at Everett's knees.  The guy just needs to find the strikezone, preferably up in the zone and Martinez is setting Cabrera to walk a guy he should mow down with high fastballs.  So of course, Everett draws a walk, Johjima hits the first fastball he sees and the game is blown open.   So Martinez utterly failed on two fronts.  First, he didn't recognize that Everett couldn't catch up to Cabrera's fastball, and second didn't understand that his pitcher was missing low consistently so he needed to set up a different target to get his mechanics back in sync.  Martinez has to be a catcher behind the plate instead of a hitter with a catcher's glove if the Indians hope to challenge in the Central.  Sabathia and Lee are talented enough to overcome bad pitch calling but the rest of that staff isn't.