Soft Lefty


There are a lot of opinions in fantasy baseball about who is the next hot thing.  People are always drawing comparisons to star players, especially those that didn't start out so well.  Such is the case with Brian Anderson.  For whatever reason, he has been hailed by numerous sources as the next Jamie Moyer.  Who knows, maybe it's because both guys are soft-tossing lefties.  Is there some sort of national soft spot for guys who's stuff is so lame that we can only resort to explaining their success by calling them "crafty"?

This comparison has bugged me for some time because it diminishes just how unique a pitcher like Jamie Moyer is.  I feel the same way every time I hear someone call a young right-hander who couldn't break glass with his fastball "the next Greg Maddux". 

Look, those two guys are unique.  It's not that they are somehow lucky when they pitch or that they outsmart hitters with their pitch selection.  They do, but what sets them apart is their uncanny control of their pitches.  It's a similar talent to the uncanny ability of Bartolo Colon to throw 100 mph.  Simply put, they can do it and you and 99.999% of the world's population will never be able to do it no matter how much you or they practice.  It is in their genes. 

Still, it wouldn't hurt to take a look to see if there is any validity to the Anderson/Moyer comparison. (thanks to Baseball-reference.com for providing outstanding stats)

Moyer - pre 32
Year Ag Tm Lg   W  L  G GS GF CG SHO SV   IP   H    R  ER  HR  BB  SO HBP WP BFP  ERA *lgERA *ERA+
1986 23 CHC NL  7  4 16 16  0  1  1   0  87.3 107  52  49  10  42  45  3   3 395 5.05   4.06   80
1987 24 CHC NL 12 15 35 33  1  1  0   0 201.0 210 127 114  28  97 147  5  11 899 5.10   4.29   84
1988 25 CHC NL  9 15 34 30  1  3  1   0 202.0 212  84  78  20  55 121  4   4 855 3.48   3.63  104
1989 26 TEX AL  4  9 15 15  0  1  0   0  76.0  84  51  41  10  33  44  2   1 337 4.86   3.97   82
1990 27 TEX AL  2  6 33 10  6  1  0   0 102.3 115  59  53   6  39  58  4   1 447 4.66   3.92   84
1991 28 STL NL  0  5 8   7  1  0  0   0  31.3 38   21  20   5  16  20  1   2 142 5.74   3.72   65
1993 30 BAL AL 12  9 25 25  0  3  1   0 152.0 154  63  58  11  38  90  6   1 630 3.43   4.42  129
1994 31 BAL AL  5  7 23 23  0  0  0   0 149.0 158  81  79  23  38  87  2   1 631 4.77   5.00  105

Anderson
Year Ag Tm Lg   W  L  G GS GF CG SHO SV   IP   H    R  ER  HR  BB  SO HBP WP BFP  ERA *lgERA *ERA+
1993 21 CAL AL  0  0  4  1  3  0  0   0  11.3  11   5   5   1   2   4  0   0  45 3.97   4.55  114
1994 22 CAL AL  7  5 18 18  0  0  0   0 101.7 120  63  59  13  27  47  5   5 441 5.22   4.90   94
1995 23 CAL AL  6  8 18 17  0  1  0   0  99.7 110  66  65  24  30  45  3   1 433 5.87   4.72   80
1996 24 CLE AL  3  1 10  9  0  0  0   0  51.3  58  29  28   9  14  21  0   2 215 4.91   4.90  100
1997 25 CLE AL  4  2  8  8  0  0  0   0  48.0  55  28  25   7  11  22  0   1 199 4.69   4.71  100
1998 26 ARI NL 12 13 32 32  0  2  1   0 208.0 221 100 100  39  24  95  4   3 845 4.33   4.32  100
1999 27 ARI NL  8  2 31 19  4  2  1   1 130.0 144  69  66  18  28  75  1   0 549 4.57   4.43   97
2000 28 ARI NL 11  7 33 32  0  2  0   0 213.3 226 101  96  38  39 104  3   1 876 4.05   4.68  116
2001 29 ARI NL  4  9 29 22  1  1  0   0 133.3 156  93  77  25  30  55  1   2 571 5.20   4.58   88
2002 30 ARI NL  6 11 35 24  1  0  0   0 156.0 174  86  83  23  32  81  1   2 659 4.79   4.40   92
2003 31 CLE AL  9 10 25 24  0  0  0   0 148.0 162  88  61  21  32  72  4   2 623 3.71   4.26  115
        KCR AL  5  1  7  7  0  2  1   0  49.7  50  22  22   6  11  15  0   1 198 3.99   5.07  127
        TOT AL 14 11 32 31  0  2  1   0 197.7 212 110  83  27  43  87  4   3 821 3.78   4.46  118


While there are some similarities between the two - neither guy is much of a strikeout pitcher, both were fairly stingy on walks and both gave up more hits than innings pitched - there are two significant differences.  The first is that Moyer had a much better strikeout rate through age 31: he struck out 5.5 batters per 9 innings while Anderson strikes out only 4.24 batters per 9 innings.  That extra strikeout is important because of the second significant difference - home runs allowed.  That extra K means one fewer hitter who was able to put the bat on the ball, which means one fewer opportunity for the ball to go out of the park, scoring a run and putting his team closer to a loss.

Moyer had two seasons in which he pitched more than 200 innings and averaged 24 homers allowed.  Anderson has also had two 200+ inning seasons, but has averaged nearly 40 home runs surrendered.  Moyer to this point in his career gave up 1.02 homers per game.  Anderson yields 1.5 homers per game and it isn't because of the ballpark because Wrigley, Arlington and Camden Yards weren't exactly pitcher's parks when Moyer called them home.  

I'm beginning to think that the reason there has been such a significant jump in home runs in the majors since the 90s is because Brian Anderson is in the league.  Just kidding, of course.  But in all seriousness, the difference in the league home run rate in 1987 (2.75 per game) was not dramatically different than it was in 1998 (2.89).  So the league difference doesn't explain the disparity in rates between the two.
 
Moyer since turning 32
Year Ag Tm Lg   W  L  G GS GF CG SHO SV   IP   H   R  ER  HR BB  SO HBP WP BFP  ERA *lgERA *ERA+
1995 32 BAL AL  8  6 27 18  3  0  0   0 115.7 117 70  67  18 30  65  3   0 483 5.21   4.91   94
1996 33 BOS AL  7  1 23 10  1  0  0   0  90.0 111 50  45  14 27  50  1   2 405 4.50   5.15  114
        SEA AL  6  2 11 11  0  0  0   0  70.7  66 36  26   9 19  29  1   1 298 3.31   4.95  150
        TOT AL 13  3 34 21  1  0  0   0 160.7 177 86  71  23 46  79  2   3 703 3.98   5.06  127
1997 34 SEA AL 17  5 30 30  0  2  0   0 188.7 187 82  81  21 43 113  7   3 787 3.86   4.53  117
1998 35 SEA AL 15  9 34 34  0  4  3   0 234.3 234 99  92  23 42 158 10   3 974 3.53   4.66  132
1999 36 SEA AL 14  8 32 32  0  4  0   0 228.0 235 108 98  23 48 137  9   3 945 3.87   5.02  130
2000 37 SEA AL 13 10 26 26  0  0  0   0 154.0 173 103 94  22 53  98  3   4 678 5.49   4.58   83
2001 38 SEA AL 20  6 33 33  0  1  0   0 209.7 187 84  80  24 44 119 10   1 851 3.43   4.21  123
2002 39 SEA AL 13  8 34 34  0  4  2   0 230.7 198 89  85  28 50 147  9   3 931 3.32   4.20  127
2003 40 SEA AL 21  7 33 33  0  1  0   0 215.0 199 83  78  19 66 129  8   0 897 3.27   4.44  136

There's actually a punchline to this story.  Even if Anderson somehow bucks history and follows in Moyer's footsteps, this is probably not the year that he's going to make the move.  Moyer was actually worse than league average when he was 32.  It wasn't until he turned 33 that his numbers started to take off to their current levels. 

Anderson is 32 yet has more innings pitched in the majors at this point than Moyer.  He has more experience but less success to date, at least in terms of keeping the ball in the yard.  So not only is his physical ability in question compared to Moyer, so is his learning curve.

So if you are looking for fantasy advice regarding Anderson, here it is... your best bet is ignore the hype and let someone else take the risk and the poundings this year.  It's not likely they have the next Jamie Moyer.