Timebombs & Flowerbeds


Everyone is looking for this year's Esteban Loaiza.  Frankly, I'm not sure there will be one.  Last year, a lot of things fell into place for a pitcher who always had good stuff: he moved to a division he had historically dominated, he added a cutter than allowed him to offer a different look on his fastball, and he moved to a team that had good offensive potential for run support.  And from his spring, we had some clues that last year was going to be a little different.  Here is what he did the last 3 springs.

PITCHERS     W- L  ERA    BA G GS CG GF SH SV   IP   H  R ER HR BB SO
Loaiza '03   4- 2 2.43  .225 7  7  0  0  0  0  29.2 25  9  8  0  4 16
Loaiza '02   DNP
Loaiza '01   0- 2 6.86  .345 5  5  0  0  0  0  21.0 30 16 16  5  7  9

The lines are quite different but probably the biggest change is in the home runs allowed.  Loaiza had always struggled with the long ball because his fastball was straight.  With a new cutter to show batters last year, they couldn't sit on it anymore.  There was a dramatic drop in hits allowed and homers, allowing him to be more aggressive throwing strikes.  His spring did portend a breakout year; the degree which he broke out was somewhat of a surprise, but his growth was real.

A lot of people will say that you can't take anything away from spring training numbers.  I disagree.  I do agree that one should not base one's fantasy bids solely on spring training results, and what a player does late in the spring after the rosters have been cut down means a lot more than what he did early in spring.  But there are two things I pay special attention to when I look at the spring pitching numbers that are strong indicators of future success.  They are:

Strikeouts and home runs.

If a pitcher has improved there, especially one who is fighting for a job, then generally speaking I'm willing to go an extra buck to get him.

Which is one of the reasons I didn't get Scott Schoeneweis on any of my teams this year.

I was very impressed with his ability to strike batters out this spring with his new pitch, although to be honest, I can't remember what exactly it was he added.  But the White Sox feel they have a solid starter on their hands, a la Loaiza, and are excited about moving him back into the rotation after the Angels decided he was best suited to relief work.  And if you believe in Voros McCracken's DIPS work, the White Sox might be right because his defensive independent ERA last year was 3.02.

However, here's why I'm reluctant to hop on the bandwagon

PITCHERS          W- L   ERA   BA G GS CG GF SH SV   IP    H   R  ER HR BB SO
Schoeneweis '04   1- 2  9.31 .368 5  5  0  0  0  0  19.1  32  20  20  4 10 26
Schoeneweis '03   1- 0 11.32 .400 6  2  0  0  0  0  10.1  20  14  13  1  5  9
Schoeneweis '02   3- 0  2.84 .319 5  4  0  0  0  0  19.0  23   6   6  1  5  8
Schoeneweis '01   2- 1  4.43 .282 5  5  0  0  0  0  20.1  22  10  10  2  2 10

I am impressed with the number of strikeouts he was able to wrack up, but what troubles me is that if his new pitch is really that effective, why did he get hit so hard in spring and why did batters tattoo 4 homers off him.  Home runs have been a bugaboo for him the last several years and it doesn't look like it's cured.  After watching him pitch this spring, I noticed, like Dan Wright (another 'next Loaiza' of the White Sox) he still has a tendency to leave too many pitches out over the plate. 

I don't see the White Sox defense as being particularly good, at least until Jeremy Reed takes over in center field and as long as Schoeneweis is giving hitters fat pitches, I'm just not convinced he will enjoy the same success as Loaiza, despite the uptick in spring strikeouts.  For this same reason, I'm not high on Josh Towers either.

PITCHERS         W- L   ERA   BA G GS CG GF SH SV    IP   H   R  ER HR BB SO
Towers '04       1- 1  4.81 .343 6  5  0  1  0  0  24.1  35  13  13  4  1 18
Towers '03       0- 0  1.50 .304 4  0  0  1  0  0   6.0   7   1   1  0  2  3
Towers '02       3- 0  4.50 .321 5  5  0  0  0  0  20.0  27  10  10  3  2  6

It's certainly nice the strikeouts have increased, but the home run rate is still high and batters still tee off on a medicore fastball.  He'll be a serviceable 5th starter but on days he doesn't have his pinpoint control, he can seriously hurt your ERA.

On the flip side, I believe the fine spring numbers of Aaron Harang, Erik Bedard and Doug Davis should be taken seriously.  All showed a good strikeout rate, low home run rate and kept batters fairly honest throughout the spring. 

PITCHERS             W- L   ERA   BA G GS CG GF SH SV    IP   H   R  ER HR BB SO
Harang '04           3- 0  1.82 .233 6  4  0  0  0  0  24.2  21   6   5  1  2 22
Harang '03           0- 1  5.28 .311 5  3  0  0  0  0  15.1  19  11   9  2  4  7
Bedard '04           2- 0  2.04 .200 5  2  0  0  0  0  17.2  13   4   4  2  7 21
Bedard '02 (DNP '03) 0- 1  4.91 .310 6  2  0  0  0  0  11.0  13   6   6  1  4  8
Davis  '04           1- 0  2.35 .267 6  6  0  0  0  0  23.0  24   8   6  1  4 19
Davis  '03           0- 0  6.00 .341 4  3  0  0  0  0   9.0  14   7   6  1  5  8

They won't be Esteban Loaiza, but for a $1 in the end game, they're a good bet to turn a tidy profit by year's end.