A Brave New World
March 13, 2005
Atlanta Braves
I wish I could give credit where credit is due, but the Braves get way
too much credit already. Sure, John Schuerholz has done a very
good job piecing together a competitive ballclub every year, but he
also inherited a farm system that was one of the most productive in
baseball and has had one of the higher budgets to work with in the
National League. He's also been settled in a division that has
consitently displayed an obvious lack of intelligent leadership.
The fact that the Mets have been the second most intelligently run
organization in the division speaks volumes about Atlanta's
competition. Yes, Bobby Cox does a good job managing
personalities, but he's gotten way too much credit for giving young
players a chance to play. Chipper Jones, Ryan Klesko, Andruw
Jones, Marcus Giles, Javy Lopez and Rafael Furcal have all been
platooned with
far lesser
lights for at least a year, sometimes more. And when it comes
time for a manager to show his tactical side - in the playoffs - Cox
has not exactly been the picture of greatness, losing his last 8
straight World Series games and posting a career postseason mark
of 65-63. Call me crazy, but a manager with barely a .500
record in the playoffs (.507), especially one who's team often had the
best record in the league, isn't one I'd immediately consider a Hall of
Famer. The record during the season has far more to do with the
talent in the organization - in terms of roster depth, replacements for
injuries and trades a GM makes - than it does a manager's ability to
manage the game. And Leo Mazzone's reputation as a miracle worker
seems to be overblown as well, in terms of resurrecting careers,
developing young pitchers and keeping his pitchers healthy. No
one seems to talk about the reconstructive surgeries that John Smoltz,
Odalis Perez, Jung Bong and Horacio Ramirez have undergone in the last
five years. Nor do they talk about his failure to develop Perez,
Jason Marquis, Jason Schmidt or Paul Byrd, all of whom have become
good-to-excellent starters on other teams. Nor do they seem to
mention the
burnout of Steve Avery, or the failure of Bruce Chen, Terrell Wade or
Damian Moss to develop despite their high regard as prospects.
Nor do they seem to mention that pitchers like John Burkett and Jaret
Wright were well on the way to resurrecting their careers before they
got to Atlanta. From the evidence, Mazzone doesn't appear to be
much better than the average pitching coach. In fact. it does
look like his reputation is largely based on the fact that he had Greg
Maddux pitching for him for 11 seasons. So while I will give
credit to Mazzone for being a fun interview and a pitching coach of
above average competence, Cox credit for keeping his
clubhouse orderly, Schuerholz credit for using his resources fairly
wisely, one has to expand the definition of "great" to a point where it
also is synonymous with "above average" to call the Braves achievements
this last decade as "great". It's kind of like calling
Red Ruffing
"great". Sure he's in the Hall of Fame, but his 39-96 record and
an ERA more than a half a run higher than league average before he came
to the Yankees in 1930 says more about his talent than his record after
he joined the team with Ruth, Gehrig, Dickey, Combs and Lazzeri.
Anyway, Schuerholz did manage to pull off a nice trade this winter to
bring Tim Hudson into the fold. Hudson is a terrific pitcher in
the Greg Maddux mold, so it's likely that Mazzone will get more due for
being brilliant when Hudson finishes among the league leaders in
ERA. Never mind that NL pitchers naturally have a lower ERA than
their AL counterparts and that Hudson has routinely been among the
league leaders in ERA
in the AL. The real test for Mazzone will be keeping John Smoltz
healthy. After three arm surgeries, Smoltz was removed from the
rotation in 2001 and made the team's closer in order to keep him off
the operating table. Now he will be moving back to the same
workload that caused his injuries in the first place. At age 38,
it will be interesting to see if he can make it through 25
starts. If not, Kyle Davies or Roman Colon may have to step
in. Davies posted some impressive numbers in AA last year, but
has been summarily thumped this spring while trying to win a major
league job. Groundball machine Danny Kolb will take over as
closer. He should be fairly effective, but closers without a
strikeout pitch are not ideal, especially in the postseason. Gabe
White will be the primary
lefty in the pen.
On offense, the Braves lost JD Drew, but gained Raul Mondesi and Brian
Jordan. Neither comes close to Drew's rate of production but if
Mondesi can stay motivated, he should have no trouble playing more
games than Drew, thus coming close to Drew's overall production.
Jordan is a huge injury risk and if/when he goes down, the Braves may
have to shift Chipper Jones back to the outfield and let Andy Marte
play third. Marte is one of the better hitting prospects in
baseball, and the Braves should have considered that before throwing
good money Jordan's way. Of course, they couldn't do that because
Cox didn't have any 5th stringers he could platoon with Marte at
third. Ryan
Laagerhans may get a chance to show he's the next Charles Thomas in
left, except he's actually that good.
Florida Marlins
Which is more amazing: a team winning 13 of the last 14 division titles
yet only one World Series, or a team in the same division winning
zero division titles, yet twice as
many World Series in a shorter period of
existence despite ownership that
has completely scrapped the roster twice? The Marlins didn't
scrap their roster this winter, instead opting to bring in more offense
to bolster an already solid pitching situation. When healthy,
Carlos Delgado is one of the premier power hitters in baseball and
should provide valuable left-handed sock to a regular line-up that has
no lefties with more than 3 home runs last year. The key will
be keeping him in the line-up as the type of nagging muscle injuries he
suffered last year can be hard to kick.
The pitching staff got somewhat of a makeover with the anticipated loss
of Carl Pavano. There is some dispute whether Pavano's loss will
be that great: was he a guy who finally learned how to pitch or was he
simply lucky last year? Regardless, the Fish will welcome the
return of AJ Burnett to take his place, as well as the addition of Al
Leiter. Few pitchers display as much passion or heart than
Leiter,
although his fastball has lost a couple miles an hour and his
persistent bouts of shoulder tendonitis last season are some
concern. Gone is Armando Benitez as the team's closer. Now
Guillermo Mota will get a chance to prove he can close. Antonio
Alfonseca, Jim Mecir and John Reidling will bolster
a pen that had glaring holes in the 7th and 8th innings last
year. If Mota can't cut it, Alfonseca, Todd Jones or perhaps
Tim Spooneybarger will get an opportunity to succeed him.
Alfonseca would be the likely winner in such a derby as he has had some
success in the role previously.
New York Mets
The Mets made the most noise of any team this offseason by signing two
of the most high profile free agents: Pedro Martinez and Carlos
Beltran. Although Martinez' effective pitch limit is
around 100 pitches, he's still quite effective for
those 100 pitches. Moving to a more friendly park with better
outfielders and getting to face the opposing pitcher should offset any
continuing negative effects he might be suffering due to age or
wear. As for
the New York media, it's highly unlikley they will be any more
intrusive or irrational than what he faced in Boston. In fact,
compared to the scrutiny and melodrama he faced during his time with
the Red Sox, handling the New York media will probably be
cakewalk. Pedro will be Pedro when it comes to his performance;
it will be the bullpen that finishes his games that will determine
whether he wins 12 or 20 games.
Beltran, on the other hand, could take a big hit in production moving
to Shea. The ballparks in Houston and Kansas City have played
quite favorably for hitters and few parks in the bigs have a more
negative effect that Shea. It wouldn't be that surprising if
Beltran ended up with closer to 30 home runs than the nearly 40 he
finished with last season. On the plus side, manager Willie
Randolph had a pretty nice career as a base stealer and will probably
green light Beltran all year, giving him a pretty good chance of
stealing 50. One other important addition to the Mets roster this
winter was the acquisition of Doug Mientkiewicz. His effect on
the team won't show up in his offensive numbers but will in the
pitchers'
ratios and ERAs. The Mets have a talented infield, but that was
somewhat obscured by the awkward play of Mike Piazza in his first (and
quite possibly only) season at first base. The Mets infield
defense should be as tight with Minky as it's anchor as it was when
John Olerud was picking it there and they were leading the majors in
fielding percentage.
Last year's addition of Victor Zambrano will probably not have any
impact, despite pitching coach Rick Peterson's confidence that he can
fix his wildness. Zambrano had a torn right flexor tendon and his
velocity this spring has not been reassuring. He's more likely to
end up on the operating table than pitch 100 innings this year.
New GM Omar Minaya's non-roster invitees included Andres Galarraga,
Marlon Anderson, Ramon Castro and Kerry Robinson, although it's
unlikely any of them
will make the team. Robinson has the best chance as he could be
Cliff Floyd's late inning defensive replacement. Castro, on
a year's probation for his off-the-field troubles, might turn out to be
a pretty valuable pick-up. His catching skills are solid and he
has
good power potential. Last year's disastrous
performance is understandable considering the legal troubles that were
hanging over his head all season. With those out of the way, the
breakout season that was projected for him may happen this year,
especially with the Mets looking for long term solutions to Piazza's
age-related frailty behind the plate.
Philadelphia Phillies
Quite possibly the best thing to ever happen to Charlie Manuel's career
is that he followed Larry Bowa as the Phillies' skipper. The
laid-back Manuel is the diametric opposite of the fiery and high-strung
Bowa, which should play very well with a team comprised largely of
veterans. GM Ed Wade traded one of the strongest components of
his bullpen (Felix Rodriguez) to get some "stability" in centerfield
in the form of Kenny Lofton. While Lofton is still a solid
player, his physical talents - particularly on defense - have been
eroding since 2000. The Phillies have two talented youngsters in
Marlon Byrd and Jason Michaels who've been disappointing but neither
appears to merit losing their opportunity to an aging Lofton.
Making the
transition to youth and dealing with the perpetual chirping over
playing
time from Lofton may be Manuel's first big test in Philadelphia.
The pitching staff got a new hairdo, but it's hard to say if it's for
the better. Jon Leiber takes over for Cincinnati-bound Eric
Milton as the staff ace. His groundball formula for success is
much better suited to the home run happy environs the Phillies play in
than Milton's flyball tendency. But Kevin Millwood also left
which forces the Phillies to depend on heretofore unreliable Brett
Myers as one of their rotation. Gavin Floyd has considerable
promise but still has yet to control his walks and Vincente Padilla has
yet to show that he's fully recovered from what team trainers are
calling tricpes tendonitis. This will be Manuel's other great
challenge this season - piecing together a serviceable rotation that
can compete against the improved staffs in the NL East. The
bullpen added Aaron Fultz and Terry Adams, but
neither measure up to the quality of Rodriguez so it remains to be seen
if the bullpen will hold up as well.
Washington Nationals
The biggest positive change for the Expos/Nationals that occurred this
offseason was their travel schedule. Not having to fly to and
from Puerto Rico for "home" games and finally being able to settle down
someplace they can call home rather than living out of their suitcases
will have an enormous impact on the holdovers. Another big plus
will be playing their games on grass rather than turf, especially for
players who have some history with joint problems like Jose
Vidro. Without changing any personnel, the Nationals were going
to be much better this year than last. Some pundits have opined
that might have been preferable to what interim GM Jim Bowden actually
did.
Trading Juan Rivera and Maicer Izturis for clubhouse headache Jose
Guillen was a risky move that could either payoff big or fail
utterly. Rivera has been considered by some as a AAAA hitter,
although his
performance in the second half last year made a good case that perhaps
he might have a little more going for him. Maicer Izturis
probably isn't an everyday shortstop, but he would be a valuable bench
player. Even on a winning team, Guillen couldn't be kept happy so
it's hard to see how he will fit in on a team with plenty of question
marks. The guy has plenty of talent and should produce on the
field, but will he drive everyone else to distraction with his
antics? Can manager Frank Robinson focus him on the larger
picture? It'll be interesting to find out.
Bowden signed two players that raised a lot of eyebrows: Vinny Castilla
and Cristian Guzman. Until Tony Batista took over third base last
year on a one-year contract, the Expos had not had a legitimate regular
playing third since 1998. Even though he became a fan favorite,
his range was a lodestone on the defense. With Castilla the team
gets a similar offensive player plus a gloveman with superior
range. True, there were better offensive players available this
winter, but none had Castilla's defensive pedigree and would have come
to DC for $3 million per year. The Guzman signing (4 years, $16
million) was even more surprising given his lackluster performance the
last three years. However, Guzman is still fairly young (27 this
year), is among the better defesnive shortstops in the game and, if
scouting generalizations are to be believed, should do well in the
National League: he's a good fastball hitter coming to a fastball
league. How good could he be? At age 23 he posted an
.814 OPS and the year before he led the AL in triples with 20.
His batting eye has increased three straight years and he's coming to a
manager who has a history of making his hitters better. The
signing, especially because of the years involved, was a big risk but
given that Edgar Renteria and Orlando Cabrera signed for twice the
money - are they twice as good as Guzman? - there's a decent
chance he could be a smart signing by the time all is said and done.
Esteban Loaiza will get a chance to prove that 2003 was no fluke.
One of the bigger disappointments last year, Loaiza came into the
season complacent after earning a nice raise with his 21-win
effort. He simply wasn't as sharp, a fact that was exposed early
on and was a source of embarrasment to him as the year wore on.
He seemed to refocus in time for the postseason, but it's hard to
determine whether his improved performance was due to his
determination, or to his move to the bullpen. His spring
performance has been encouraging but even if he's back to form, it's
doubtful he'll ever be as good as he was when he took the AL by
surprise. The biggest additions to the starting staff will be the
return of Tony Armas and the emergence of John Patterson. Both
pitchers are returning from injuries that derailed promising
seasons. Although neither one has true #1 stuff, both can be
good #2 or #3 guys. Jon Rauch is another one who could
surprise. If their young starters can stay healthy, the Nationals
could have a
surprisingly strong rotation.